+SNfreak21 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is .50 for NYC on Monday. Solid 2-4 inches. .50 qpf with 2-4" means you are expecting less than a 10:1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 1" into tomsriver.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 .50 qpf with 2-4" means you are expecting less than a 10:1 ratio? I'm thinking 8-1 to 10/1. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 .50 QPF is at least 5" using standard 10:1 ratio which is what it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Check that 1" into kblm..The rest of monmouth 0.7"-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If the euro is correct, this will really be a frustrating one to watch. 3-5" for NYC and NNJ, 6-8" CNJ and 8-12" with a huge area of more than 10" for SNJ including phl of course......but after the Wednesday storm, we all have a foot of snow on the ground. Trenton with 16"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 JM, when to us south shore Long Island Folk see the first flakes with this next system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 JM, when to us south shore Long Island Folk see the first flakes with this next system?7-9am mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Having followed the NWS for a long time, given that the Euro largely held serve, with just about the same storm track and snowfall amounts as the 0Z run today, I'd expect the NWS to compromise between the more bullish and northward Euro/Canadian and the weaker/more southward GFS/NAM and at least issue winter weather advisories for 3-6" (not quite warning criteria, which is 6" or more in 12 hours for counties north of 195) for Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Somerset, Hunterdon, Essex, Hudson, Union, NYC/LI, but probably leaving Warren, Sussex, Morris, Bergen, Passaic (and the Hudson Valley/CT) out of the advisories with only 1-3" predictions. I'd also expect the current watch counties along the Delaware Valley in SJ (Burlington, Ocean, Camden, Gloucester, and Salem) and in SE PA converted to warnings for 4-6", where warning criteria are 4" in 12 hours. I'd also guess that they might put up warnings for Atlantic and Cumberland, as enough of those counties could get 4" or more of snow after a changeover from rain, to start. Cape May might just get a WWAdvisory. Let's see how I do, lol. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREFs went south. .5 line just south of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Pretty similar to the Euro's .5 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yup, NAM members killing SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yup, NAM members killing SREFs. Yea I bet. But the SREFs really look like a good call right now. If the RGEM stays amped I'll believe in it more. An RGEM/SREF/Euro/GFS combo look good to me right now. I added the gfs bc you just can't ignore the further south models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yea I bet. But the SREFs really look like a good call right now. If the RGEM stays amped I'll believe in it more. An RGEM/SREF/Euro/GFS combo look good to me right now. I added the gfs bc you just can't ignore the further south models. my gut says 35 more miles with north trend. At the end of day, Monday night, guidance will have been 15 miles too far north. If that makes any sense, I need to go to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nam is more consolidated with the precip field through 28, heavier precip is more NW but less lighter precip on the outer edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nice 30 - 40 mile NW shift with the heavier precip, it skims LI this run. Less of a NW bump with the lighter precip @ 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM look meh for nyc metro but not terrible. But pretty good for snj for central nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM look meh for nyc metro but not terrible. But pretty good for snj for central nj Its a fair amount better than 0z, should be a nice little up tick in qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 About .25 for nyc metro. .3 kisses SI and S shore of LI. Meh. CNJ .5 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 About .25 for nyc metro. .3 kisses SI and S shore of LI. Meh. CNJ .5 + Its a much better run, the precip field is more consolidated, and there is no mixing at the beginning this run. 4k should be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Winter storm watches extended (a little ) to three more NJ counties: Monmouth, Mercer and Hunterdon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If the euro is correct, this will really be a frustrating one to watch. 3-5" for NYC and NNJ, 6-8" CNJ and 8-12" with a huge area of more than 10" for SNJ including phl of course......but after the Wednesday storm, we all have a foot of snow on the ground. Trenton with 16"+ Sheesh another one of those winters, people remember 2/6/10 but there were some other smaller ones that year that stayed south IIRC, and didn't ACY just get 7 inches last Monday? And last I checked Wed was looking kinda shakey. I'm surprised at your optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Its a much better run, the precip field is more consolidated, and there is no mixing at the beginning this run. 4k should be nice Dude it wasn't great. It kinda fizzled as it headed east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The RGEM still looks like 17mm total for NYC or .60-.70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS is a tick NW with the heavier precip...nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Dude it wasn't great. It kinda fizzled as it headed east Dude it was an improvement over 0z as far as frozen precip bottom line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6Z RGEM total snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6Z RGEM total snow rgem_total_snow.jpg looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Rgem/ggem combo running the wettest .6 plus for a large area. Gfs did bump north .25-.45 for nyc metro. Euro is a solid .5. NAM is .25ish for nyc and .5 CNJ. SERFs are .4 and .6+ for NYC and CNJ repspectively ..more south less north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is .5 at KNYC. .7 into KBLM. 1 inch into Toms River. I keep reading people think this is 8 to 1 I think by Brooklyn friend said .5 is 2 to 4. Hour 42 850 minus 3 surface 31. Hour 48 850 minus 3 surface 30. This all 10 to 1 . The RGEM at KNYC looks close to .75 and an inch right to the driscol bridge. The tic south on the SREF is because the NAM is as wrong as it could be . With these precip rates due to the VV showing up I suspect the best banding will be through CNJ that the models will not pick up until inside 24 hours. KNYC is prob close to 6 inches . In a line from Philly through Trenton into Monmouth county is closer to 8 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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