Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's on the warmer side of the guidance, I wouldn't worry all that much at this point. The consensus right now is that any ZR would be brief. The city almost always seems to avoid major icing...either its 32 and doesn't really accrete or stays sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The GFS P-types have LGA at 5" of snow followed by .32 ZR and then a dusting of snow on top. Im gona go out on a " limb " here and say the Euro will be colder than the GFS , it was the first to trend that way and the others have followed ,starting to think KNYC may do pretty well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The GFS has really trended towards quite the snowy scenario. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 The city almost always seems to avoid major icing...either its 32 and doesn't really accrete or stays sleet Eh, when I talk ZR for the city i'm not referring to Manhattan. Queens and Brooklyn is a different story. Anyway I think the main ZR threat is about a 50 mile strip running from roughly Somerset County north to Sussex County and then east to the city. Roughly right along 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Probably 4-8 inches additional in NYC from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is crazy... The 5-10" is additional accumulation, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Models starting to pick up on more confluence so the center stay S of Beckley , if that happens 78 N are fine . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 5-10" is additional accumulation, correct? Correct. With a dangerous crust of .5" of ice on top... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Would half expect there to be Ice Storm Warnings for a large part of the north east by tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro slightly farther south with confluence through 30 hr...nothing alarming though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Would half expect there to be Ice Storm Warnings for a large part of the north east by tomorrow... ScreenHunter_61 Feb. 03 12.53.png They would probably just go with a general winter storm warning I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Would half expect there to be Ice Storm Warnings for a large part of the north east by tomorrow... ScreenHunter_61 Feb. 03 12.53.png .5" of ice. No thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Snow on the doorstep hour 42. Just after 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hour 48 snow bomb for anyone north of 195. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 South by 50 miles with the 850 0c at 48 hours. Quicker transfer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hour 54 the city is right on the freezing mark. I-80 corridor is a disaster. Just north of that heavy snow continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hour 48 snow bomb for anyone north of 195. What's the QPF look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 South by 50 miles with the 850 0c at 48 hours. Quicker transfer to the coast.Love it! Things just keep going out way! Some years we can't buy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 4-8" front end dump from 78 north. 2-4" from the AC expressway north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYI91Tavares Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So this should be a mostly rain event for Suffolk County on LI right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 By hour 60 it's way east of the benchmark. This is now like a 12 to perhaps 18 hour event max on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 .5 aint that bad its when you get over that is when you start getting problems .5" of ice. No thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 So this should be a mostly rain event for Suffolk County on LI right? All of Long Island flips to rain by hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 .5 aint that bad its when you get over that is when you start getting problems Yeah, 0.5" is near the cutoff from between a moderate icing event and severe icing. That's what the Ice Storm warning criteria is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 .5 aint that bad its when you get over that is when you start getting problemsuh; any icing is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hour 48 snow bomb for anyone north of 195.At hr 48 the 0c 850 line is south of LI and the surface freezing line cuts through western suffolk. It's snow unless there's a warm nose that I can't see for Nassau into NYC.Hr 54 is rain for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Earthlight, Can you please give your analysis. Its always to the point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hour 54 the city is right on the freezing mark. I-80 corridor is a disaster. Just north of that heavy snow continues. What is the I 80 corridor. Who is heavy snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 For reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This thread its so confusing. I don't know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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