michaelmantis Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Awesome. Latest run This was not the "latest run" but an alternate model to The RPM. This is how Skilling is forecasting the 4-8. The model in your picture is the low end while the RPM is higher for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 This was not the "latest run" but an alternate model to The RPM. This is how Skilling is forecasting the 4-8. The model in your picture is the low end while the RPM is higher for Chicago. Which one was this then? Another in house model? GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 All-in-all, the 0z GFS is a sick run for Toronto. I can go to bed breathing a little easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like the 0z Ukie passes just east of Toronto, in a strengthening state...990mb at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Well at least the GFS can stay consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GFS clown snowfall (WxBell) map shows a swath of 5 - 8 from Cincy thru Columbus all the way to Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like the 0z Ukie passes just east of Toronto, in a strengthening state...990mb at 60 hours. . Wow impressive. It has been the strongest of the bunch. What do the precip profiles look like? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like the 0z Ukie passes just east of Toronto, in a strengthening state...990mb at 60 hours. GFS-like track FTW over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Skilling all in. SKILLDOG.jpeg Awesome. Latest run These 2 graphics would contradict each other lol. The top one says heaviest to the south, while the second one shows the higher totals to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 These 2 graphics would contradict each other lol. The top one says heaviest to the south, while the second one shows the higher totals to the north They're not the same model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Larry Cosgrove just posted on FB a forecast of 2-4 for Indy with ice. The storm will not go boom until Ft Wayne. When the shortwave finally interacts with the massive Arctic motherlode to its west, snow intensity will likely explode. This is why a box 100 miles either side of a line from Fort Wane IN to Orilia ON can expect a blizzard with strong winds, 12 to 16 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 0z Ukie 850 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It will be interesting to see what the hi-res NMM and ARW do with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Larry Cosgrove just posted on FB a forecast of 2-4 for Indy with ice. The storm will not go boom until Ft Wayne. lol LC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Larry Cosgrove just posted on FB a forecast of 2-4 for Indy with ice. The storm will not go boom until Ft Wayne. Great just what we need...yet another solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Nice temp gradient as the cold air comes crashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Might as well throw in the towel then................ Great just what we need...yet another solution His track record is worse than JBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 0z NAM...but the crash in 850 temps for LAF is pretty freakin' cool. Down to -32.2ºC at 66 hours. EDIT: surface temp down to -14.1ºF at 60 hours. So cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I'm inclined to believe the NAM but honestly I need to see the canadian and European because the gfs is so darn persistent Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Surface low passes over CMH on the 00z GGEM so not quite as amped as the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 0z GGEM over CMH...1003 mb at 48 hours. Pretty close to its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Surface low passes over CMH on the 00z GGEM so not quite as amped as the RGEM. 0z GGEM over CMH...1003 mb at 48 hours. Just a hair SE of DTW at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I continue to expect intensification on future model runs. However, let's say the result is something like a GEM/UK blend. One factor to consider is that the gradient will be stronger than the central pressure might imply because of the strength of the arctic high. A 980 low with a 1040 high will have the same pattern as a 990 low with a 1050 high (except on its eastern side). Even with that moderate sort of outcome pressure-wise, this could still dump a very heavy snowfall due to lake enhancement in most of Indiana, western Michigan and northern Ohio. So while I would agree with the maps showing 5-8 inches in IL, could see 15-25 inches in some of those other regions, probably about 10 inches for Detroit. If the storm intensifies, would double most of these numbers. Snow squalls in southern and central Ontario, western NY will start out as NW type but swing around to WSW flow. This could spread some fairly heavy snowfalls over a large area with max amounts 20-30 inches or more. Toronto is wait and see on this current scenario, would think 3-5 inches is fairly certain but there could be some mixing briefly if the track is anything west of Erie-Toronto. The intensification scenario remains on the table because many model depictions only need a slight tweaking of the upper flow to expand the tight core of the PV and this would probably result in 10-15 mb extra deepening before Monday 06z. Having those sub-490 thicknesses so close to a baroclinic zone in the Great Lakes region is almost unprecedented. The 1978 storm tracked almost due north from Alabama to Lake Huron, Sarnia had a pressure of 955 mb at about 13z on 1-26-78, so for comparison, this storm can only become perhaps 70% as strong given the more diagonal track. Still and all, 70% of that monster would be all most folks could handle given there's already a foot of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Just a hair SE of DTW at 60 hours. Does it explode and go due north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Will be interesting to see the headline decisions from LOT. Seems like there's enough evidence to expand the watch northward at least another tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Does it explode and go due north? Yeah by 60 hours its in central Quebec. And my apologizes in the other post as it should have been 48 hours. Edit: For YYZ, 0z GGEM looks like all snow. Marginal temperatures near the Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yeah GGEM is further NW, especially with frontal snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yeah by 60 hours its in central Quebec. And my apologizes in the other post as it should have been 48 hours. Edit: For YYZ, 0z GGEM looks like all snow. Marginal temperatures near the Lake. Yeah I just saw. Looks a good front end thump for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 All the tv mets here in Chicago are showing snowfall maps generally ranging from 4 to 8 inches for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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