Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z nam hr 9 steady snow hr 12 mod snow up to nyc hr 15 mod snow continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SREF consistent with 0.50 line back to WNJ. General 0.50 - 0.65 throughout the area. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/15/sref_namer_027_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z nam hr 9 steady snow hr 12 mod snow up to nyc hr 15 mod snow continues No heavy snow during time slot of 'heavist snow' hmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 hr 18 light to mod snow idv trough signal is in the southern nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 No heavy snow during time slot of 'heavist snow' hmmmmmm we get .25+ between hr9-12 then again between hr12-15 that is the hight of this storm..and not other model has more then that in a 3 hr period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z is wetter than 12 z should be .15-20 wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Nam is .50+ for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks like the ecm 0.50 from western areas to 0.75 out eastern areas, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 we get .25+ between hr9-12 then again between hr12-15 that is the hight of this storm..and not other model has more then that in a 3 hr period Lol 6" in 6 hours but no heavy snow..yeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks like the ecm 0.50 from western areas to 0.75 out eastern areas, yea exactly man, things are lining up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Its funny on every thread when I see.. "Its Wetter" and then "0.50" for everyone. Huh? Wetter..? its been showing that for days already.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lol 6" in 6 hours but no heavy snow..yeesh Lol. I know right! Just saw one post about the dry slot lol in obs thread. Had to be one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM is pretty nice for SEPA/CNJ/SNJ... High ratio snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM bolstered QPF for a lot of people, also shows better UVV action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Its funny on every thread when I see.. "Its Wetter" and then "0.50" for everyone. Huh? Wetter..? its been showing that for days already.. Its a bit wetter overall including those south and west of NYC/coastal areas towards Middlesex/Monmouth etc, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Its funny on every thread when I see.. "Its Wetter" and then "0.50" for everyone. Huh? Wetter..? its been showing that for days already.. Dude read the map its wetter than 12z period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The inverted trough signal is getting stronger on these runs and the latest Nam is an improvement. I wish we could do a QPF comparison between the last two runs of the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Someone from ACY towards Belmar in coastal NJ will do very well according to a majority of the latest guidance. As we have seen the heavy snow is not far just offshore. A tweak here or there and we got it made. Still will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Heavier, longer lasting snow I guess focused on southern nj possibly ? Funny how that often happens....southern and central nj ends up usually getting better banding lately. Last night, the focus of it was up through NNJ and NYC into the NW suburbs...appears to have all shifted south and east, but maybe there's a few surprises in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The inverted trough signal is getting stronger on these runs and the latest Nam is an improvement. I wish we could do a QPF comparison between the last two runs of the Nam. That trough is further north on other models so that is still something we have to iron out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18Z NAM 6-9" of snow for NE NJ/NYC. 6-10" of snow for SNJ/LI. An isolated 10-11" of snow for SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Steve D : Interesting mesoscale model data has been coming in about tomorrow morning. There are strong indications from various models that a deformation zone will set up right over NJ tomorrow morning at 7-9 AM. This feature would extend the storm past 8 AM if this happens and enhance snowfall totals.The focus on the band appears to be for NJ, but I suspect moving forward, south side of LI in the game too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Someone from ACY towards Belmar in coastal NJ will do very well according to a majority of the latest guidance. As we have seen the heavy snow is not far just offshore. A tweak here or there and we got it made. Still will be nice. I'll be leaving northern Atlantic County around 10 pm tonite to plow on the Ocean/Monmouth border so I hope you are right. Temps here in Northern Atlantic County never got above 35 F. today, 6 deg. below guidance. Anyone have a working link to 18Z HRRR? http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/Status.cgi shows 15Z ran but not 16Z and 17Z. It shows 18Z is complete, but direct link says 15Z last available run... http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t3&run_time=02+Jan+2014+-+18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hopefully the gfs follows the Nam with its improvements as that seems to be the theme as the storm evolves although I assume this is the time to pay even closer attention to the short term mesoscale models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hopefully the gfs follows the Nam with its improvements as that seems to be the theme as the storm evolves although I assume this is the time to pay even closer attention to the short term mesoscale models. The gfs is wetter than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lol. I know right! Just saw one post about the dry slot lol in obs thread. Had to be one lolYeah I posted that , there is a ridiculous dry slot and I don't see how it gets filled in I know models predicted it and with all the model psycho babble common sense tells me that the systems aren't merging. I want the storm to happen as much as anyone else Im almost 40 and lived through many storms. This storm is going to be hard to pull off that all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The gfs is wetter than the nam I know, I meant that hopefully the gfs gets better than its last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hopefully the gfs follows the Nam with its improvements as that seems to be the theme as the storm evolves although I assume this is the time to pay even closer attention to the short term mesoscale models. Actually, the 12Z GFS has a solid 9-10" of snow area wide. The 18Z NAM is similar and the ECMWF is pretty close to the GFS, in terms of snowfall. I think a consensus is nearly reached, unless if the short range models pick up on something significant with the IVD (Inverted Trough). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Actually, the 12Z GFS has a solid 9-10" of snow area wide. The 18Z NAM is similar and the ECMWF is pretty close to the GFS, in terms of snowfall. I think a consensus is nearly reached. Yep the only thing left to focus on is where the trough sets up 4k sets it up about 25 miles south of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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