Mike McDonnell Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Only thing missing with this storm is the lack of convection.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Those troughs are so difficult to pinpoint, but yes if a location is under that band a foot + is possible based on ratios. if im not mistaken typically don't these bands usually form north of where they're forecasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 If that inverted trough ends up further north NYC is in the game for up to a foot huh To be honest, the inverted trough feature been setting up further N&E than modeled, so this may up over Middlesex County, NJ to Nassau County, NY. That's if the pattern holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Models are horrible at predicting inverted trough features. I'd say most of Long Island, maybe even NYC and coastal NJ are in the game for it. Those TT's and mid-level lapse rates look good for some really nice banding. I just wish that we had lapse rates that steep for some summer thunderstorm threats that fizzled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Those TT's and mid-level lapse rates look good for some really nice banding. I just wish that we had lapse rates that steep for some summer thunderstorm threats that fizzled out. SND.gif bluewave really hoping me in SW Suffolk can get into the heaviest banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Those TT's and mid-level lapse rates look good for some really nice banding. I just wish that we had lapse rates that steep for some summer thunderstorm threats that fizzled out. SND.gif I agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 bluewave really hoping me in SW Suffolk can get into the heaviest banding. Farmingdale LI sounding west of Islip shows the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Farmingdale LI sounding west of Islip shows the same thing. What JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Farmingdale LI sounding west of Islip shows the same thing. I know im kind of weenie-ish lol. im only miles from farmingdale in West Islip so I should get into some nice banding. whens the heaviest? post 10 pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I know im kind of weenie-ish lol. im only miles from farmingdale in West Islip so I should get into some nice banding. whens the heaviest? post 10 pm? Dude. You've been doing this all day. Stop the IMBY already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Those TT's and mid-level lapse rates look good for some really nice banding. I just wish that we had lapse rates that steep for some summer thunderstorm threats that fizzled out. SND.gif Is thundersnow possible in our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Is thundersnow possible in our area? yes in the heavier bands especially with the lapse rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Dude. You've been doing this all day. Stop the IMBY already. its a joke take it easy buddy I know its an IMBY statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 yes in the heavier bands especially with the lapse rates that's something I haven't experienced in a LONG time. last time was December 25, 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Two mechanisms are important to the creation of thundersnow and they are elevated instability and strong dynamic lifting. Each of these mechanisms reinforces the other. The CAPE or instability in the troposphere is a function of the tropospheric temperature profile and the initial temperature and dewpoint of a parcel of air. Surface Based CAPE (SB CAPE) can be zero when at the same time lifting from another pressure level produces positive CAPE. The term for convection starting at a pressure level other than the surface is termed ELEVATED_CONVECTION. It helps to have the parcel initially start with a small dewpoint depression since CAPE is more likely to occur than if the dewpoint depression is large. Keep in mind that environmental dewpoint can increase with height or may not fall that much with height. Even if no elevated CAPE is present, CAPE may still be present when lifting occurs at a slant (known as slantwise convection) Strong dynamic lifting (UVV) can enhance instability by cooling the middle layers of the troposphere. Cooling the middle layers of the troposphere makes elevated convection more possible. The dynamic lifting is also the "trigger" to cause the air to rise and keep rising from a pressure level that eventually results in elevated convection. Very intense dynamic lifting can often build clouds enough so that the clouds have convective characteristics even if no elevated convective CAPE is present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Is thundersnow possible in our area? I was going to mention that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What JFK? JFK is similar yes TT:44 with L57:7.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 FWIW... The HRRR has been down for a few runs, but the 21z should come in smoothly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 FWIW... The HRRR has been down for a few runs, but the 21z should come in smoothly its annoying how it does this before big storms. The one you posted before was that from a paid site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Long Island schools mainly closed, NYC open, maybe that will change by 11PM news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 JFK is similar yes TT:44 with L57:7.3 thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Long Island schools mainly closed, NYC open, maybe that will change by 11PM news. Aren't most schools closed this week? I know Great Neck, Manhasset and some in Westchester are closed until 1/6 for Xmas break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Aren't most schools closed this week? I know Great Neck, Manhasset and some in Westchester are closed until 1/6 for Xmas break. Most are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Aren't most schools closed this week? I know Great Neck, Manhasset and some in Westchester are closed until 1/6 for Xmas break. Many schools reopened today. I'd say about half reopened. Only to have a snow day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 My kids were only in school for three hours today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 its annoying how it does this before big storms. The one you posted before was that from a paid site? Yes sir. I will post the updated version once it's up. EDIT: HRRR just came in with a very nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike McDonnell Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 New HRRR puts the most intense banding around NYC. Puts down 6-7 inches (10:1) by 8 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 New HRRR puts the most intense banding around NYC. Puts down 6-7 inches (10:1) by 8 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Love that the 18Z NAM and GFS both increased precip amounts for most of NJ by 0.1-0.2", bringing the totals up to 0.50-0.75" for most of NJ and to 0.75-0.9" for NE NJ and eastern Monmouth and maybe even eastern Middlesex/Ocean...and that these are similar to the Euro amounts. If those amounts verify, the low end of most of the NWS forecasts are just about a given now and the high end or even a bit more is becoming likely, i.e., the 4-8" NWS forecasts for most of NJ are much more likely to be 6-10" for most locations with some areas that end up under the unpredictable mesoscale bands getting 12" or so. Taken verbatim, 0.5-0.75" at 15:1 snow/liquid ratios (likely ratios for this storm) translates to 7.5-11.2" of snow and 0.7-0.9" of precip translates to 10.5-13.5". Some areas well to the N and/or NW (NW NJ, Hudson Valley, interior CT, etc.), where it's colder will likely see ratios up to 20:1, such that 0.75" of liquid would translate to 15" of powdery goodness. Would love to see all of this verify. Heading out to the local pub soon - it's only a 1/2 mile walk and I love doing that walk in the snow. Snow just started in Metuchen around 6:15 pm - woohoo! Radar is filling in nicely - already 1/4" on the ground in the first ~30 minutes or so - let's sit back and watch and enjoy. So glad I'm off again tomorrow, so I can enjoy it. Will be up all night, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like the Trough is over nyc that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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