nyblizz44 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If we beg in this thread, maybe it'll happen. Getting down on my knees .Please oh PRETTY PLEASE....A severe blizzard with 12-20 inches, temps in teens and oh yeah 50-60 MPH winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Statistics show that begging is as useful as wishcasting. Statistics also show that 100% of solutions that don't show snow have convective feedback 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Getting down on my knees .Please oh PRETTY PLEASE....A severe blizzard with 12-20 inches, temps in teens and oh yeah 50-60 MPH winds! If that happened i would gladly be done with winter but it should just be small changes from here on out my friend. "Should" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Getting down on my knees .Please oh PRETTY PLEASE....A severe blizzard with 12-20 inches, temps in teens and oh yeah 50-60 MPH winds! Please keep the comments about the model output. Use the banter thread for posts like these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Through 24 hours it seems to be emphasizing the later northern stream vort more as opposed to the lead area of energy that surges into the four corners. The southern stream also seems crappier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Statistics also show that 100% of solutions that don't show snow have convective feedback 90% of the time. Tossing the NAM this morning was funny if it was a full blown blizzard weenies would've come out of the wood work john hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 slightly higher heights in SE canada/new england and it looks like there's a little more northern stream energy digging down at 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The southern stream is definitely more progressive on this run which falls in line with the other models from this morning. I don't see anything else that is crying for my attention so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Northern stream is stronger and more meridional for sure, but the southern stream is a tad weaker as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 at 30 hours the above trends are the same and the western ridge is slightly more amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 slightly higher heights in SE canada/new england and it looks like there's a little more northern stream energy digging down at 24 hrs Good. Hopefully we can keep weakening and de-emphasizing that lead vort which shoves the whole baroclinic zone out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This run actually looks less amplified than the 00z run through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Tell you one thing, when comparing with yesterdays 12z run...not even close. Those were two really bad runs by the Euro in a range where it usually isn't prone to being so far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This run actually looks less amplified than the 00z run through 36 hours. With the southern stream, for sure; but the northern stream energy is stronger and more meridional, which helps to pump up the heights a bit in SE Canada. That being said, if the southern stream runs out ahead, then the prior statement won't matter much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Through 54 hours: Similar to everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 hr 48 has some light snow in the area..but man it looks moisture starved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Although it centers the low pressure a little closer to the coast than the GFS, you can already see the baroclinic zone being shunted offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 hr 60 light snow in the area….around late afternoon thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 steady snow at hr 66….looks a lot like the gfs…def will be drier then 00z run hr 72 steady snow continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm not sure how much this run will produce, but if it keeps trending the way it did with the northern stream energy and the energy on the backside of the trough, there is still room for more improvements come 00z and 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like it ends up slightly drier than the 00z run..about the same as the GFS just glancing at it. Looks slightly improved aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Inverted trof at 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm not sure how much this run will produce, but if it keeps trending the way it did with the northern stream energy and the energy on the backside of the trough, there is still room for more improvements come 00z and 12z tomorrow. I have to think the better trend with the main trough will make for some kind of improvement in the end. The inconsistency on the Euro though is almost laughable since we expect it to be so much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i like the changes at H5 compared to 0z. another step in that direction and this will be bigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Mt Holly's snowmap totals....2-4./4-6 storm 2-4 inches Southern Somerset and most of Middlesex except northern in the 2-4 inch everyone else to the north 4-6...2-4 for Trenton to Philly to South Jersey...that's an appropriate call and one I thought they would make http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 .5+ from nyc-east this run..and .25+ back to del river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 .5+ from nyc-east this run..and .25+ back to del river Sounds like the gfs verbatim.. Lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Mt Holly's snowmap totals....2-4./4-6 storm 2-4 inches Southern Somerset and most of Middlesex except northern in the 2-4 inch everyone else to the north 4-6...2-4 for Trenton to Philly to South Jersey...that's an appropriate call and one I thought they would make http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php advisory level event with those totals - similar to the december storms in many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 snowfall maps 4-8 for north jersey-east and 2-4 central and southern nj.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I have to think the better trend with the main trough will make for some kind of improvement in the end. The inconsistency on the Euro though is almost laughable since we expect it to be so much better. Lol I think its just not handling the overall pattern well the last year or so. Remember the 09-11 days when on certain storms it would lock in on day 6 and almost hold steady, except for when it lost the boxing day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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