Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Just ran the 0z GFS through BUFKIT for YYZ. 1.29" of ice. And sfc temps during the event are not marginal at all. Generally -0.5 to -3.0c. Whats the general accumulated precip? How much rain or snow if there is any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Just ran the 0z GFS through BUFKIT for YYZ. 1.29" of ice. And sfc temps during the event are not marginal at all. Generally -0.5 to -3.0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Just ran the 0z GFS through BUFKIT for YYZ. 1.29" of ice. And sfc temps during the event are not marginal at all. Generally -0.5 to -3.0c. Whats it show out KW/Stratford way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'd toss the GGEM because I'm not liking its synoptic evolution but even the GFS has widespread 1-1.5" of ice which is fooked up. No kidding, when you think that an inch of ice cut power in ottawa back in 1998. An inch fell the first day of the ice storm in Ottawa. Montreal obviously got it the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 0z Ukie at 72 hours. Read into it what you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Whats the general accumulated precip? How much rain or snow if there is any? No snow. About 1/2 an inch of rain after the ice and the temps at the sfc shoot to about +7c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Good news is that the winds aren't terribly strong. That could have really exacerbated the damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Whats it show out KW/Stratford way? I'd have to dig up a profile but suffice it to say you're in the same boat (on ice). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 No snow. About 1/2 an inch of rain after the ice and the temps at the sfc shoot to about +7c. Wow. And by Monday-Tuesday were back to where we were last weekend..lol. Quite the temperature ride coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 0z Ukie at 72 hours. Read into it what you will. 131219050841628120000.gif Eyes could be deceiving me but it looks kind of strung out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 0z Ukie at 72 hours. Read into it what you will. 131219050841628120000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'd have to dig up a profile but suffice it to say you're in the same boat (on ice). Whats it show out KW/Stratford way? CYKF BUFKIT profiles if anyone wants em: ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/NAM4KM/00/nam4km_cykf.buf ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/nam_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/nam/nam_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/namm/namm_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/gfs/gfs3_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/gfsm/gfs3_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/rap/rap_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/sref/sref_cykf.buz http://wrfensemble.wdtb.noaa.gov/12/ewrf_cykf.buz http://wrfensemble.wdtb.noaa.gov/00/ewrf_cykf.buz ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/NAM4KM/06/nam4kmm_cykf.buf ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/NAM4KM/12/nam4km_cykf.buf ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/NAM4KM/18/nam4kmm_cykf.buf ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/RAP/00/rap_cykf.buf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 CYKF BUFKIT profiles if anyone wants em: ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/NAM4KM/00/nam4km_cykf.buf ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/nam_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/nam/nam_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/namm/namm_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/gfs/gfs3_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/gfsm/gfs3_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/rap/rap_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/sref/sref_cykf.buz http://wrfensemble.wdtb.noaa.gov/12/ewrf_cykf.buz http://wrfensemble.wdtb.noaa.gov/00/ewrf_cykf.buz ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/NAM4KM/06/nam4kmm_cykf.buf ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/NAM4KM/12/nam4km_cykf.buf ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/NAM4KM/18/nam4kmm_cykf.buf ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/RAP/00/rap_cykf.buf thanks. I was too lazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'd have to dig up a profile but suffice it to say you're in the same boat (on ice). Thanks! Our trees wouldn't be able to handle it. The April ice storm cost the city of Waterloo $140,000 with tree cleanup, and then came the severe storm in July with $300,000. With the tree removal backlog it took until November for the company to reach my parents property. CYKF BUFKIT profiles if anyone wants em: ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/NAM4KM/00/nam4km_cykf.buf ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/nam_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/nam/nam_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/namm/namm_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/gfs/gfs3_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/gfsm/gfs3_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/rap/rap_cykf.buf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/sref/sref_cykf.buz http://wrfensemble.wdtb.noaa.gov/12/ewrf_cykf.buz http://wrfensemble.wdtb.noaa.gov/00/ewrf_cykf.buz ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/NAM4KM/06/nam4kmm_cykf.buf ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/NAM4KM/12/nam4km_cykf.buf ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/NAM4KM/18/nam4kmm_cykf.buf ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/RAP/00/rap_cykf.buf Aww bless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Actually not nearly as bad for KW as it is for Toronto. That may be because they're on the other side of the escarpment. Only 0.44" of ice before it turns over to rain. However, the first 6 hours after the change over temps are only JUST BARELY above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 thanks. I was too lazy. No worries. K/W looks to get a bit more snow on the GFS but still significant ZR, including one very heavy period starting Sunday morning. Could last 6-10 hours depending on the p-type method you use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 0z Ukie at 72 hours. Read into it what you will. 131219050841628120000.gif What a screwy system.. Oh and lol @ 12z runs etc.. Euro really sh!t the bed.. FYI.. Not sure if i mentioned it here or not but the euro people did a so called upgrade back in late Nov.. Seems every time they screw with it to try and get the 500 depiction fine tuned they make it worse with shorter term events like this.. Now to just sit back and watch what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 0z Canadian Ensembles look intriguing...alot of the members look a bit further East than the Operational model IMO. Does anybody have a link to the GEFS members? http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=060&Day=&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Euro running..up to hr 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Looks like the first wave is colder...and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Whole run seems to be slinking back south and east a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 at hour 78, the low is south of Toledo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 So all the models since 12z corrected southeast to some extent, color me shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 East, less cold sector precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 at hour 78, the low is south of Toledo Ice it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Hm, i'm not sure what to think of the euro...after hour 78 a buncha mess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Sig snow hit in KS/IA/WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Euro smokes central Iowa with heavy snow. Classic dry slot for Illinois, particularly the northwest half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Hm, i'm not sure what to think of the euro...after hour 78 a buncha mess.. Maybe the GEM was on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Ice it is. Lawls, Major ice storm for the GTA...it did shift a bit SE too. The precip barriers split after about 75 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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