December pattern discussion, part II

[CoastalWx]

Nevermind them...you know its bad when DC gets more snow than Maine. At least Brookhaven is a bit of a weenie spot on LI. They avg like 6" more than NYC.

 

OMG yeah..lol. How could I forget. I know nrn LI is a good spot...but the Maine and Essex county screwjobs are priceless.

[ORH_wxman]

My parents moved to Cape Cod in '01.  Two of the first three years the Bay froze over.  Going to the beach and looking out towards Plym/Bos made you feel like you were looking out over the Arctic Circle.  It was awesome.  I think it was '02 and '04 if I remember correctly.  There was also a 14" OES storm in Chatham sometime in that period I believe.

 

 

Prob Jan '03 and Jan '04 it froze....Jan '04 everyone remembers, but people forget how cold Jan '03 was. That was like a -5 or -6 month...it just kind of got blown away by '04 which was -9.

[SouthCoastMA]

North and central SNE are getting their snows, coastal locations are snowless, 4" so far this year, but I guess the coastline doesn't do too well early on in the season. Our best snowfall was like the Mid Atlantic's best snowfall, we got 100" roughly and they got 100"+ roughly in some locations of that winter, but we can't expect to have snow every winter, it just doesn't happen to us on the coastline like it does further inland and the southwest burbs of Boston, MA where they jackpot every storm. It is just the way it is.

04/05 was the only year we eclipsed, or even came close to sniffing, 100". That's once in a century stuff. 09/10 and 10/11 were blue ball years down here..still above but could have been wayyyy better

[cut]

Prob Jan '03 and Jan '04 it froze....Jan '04 everyone remembers, but people forget how cold Jan '03 was. That was like a -5 or -6 month...it just kind of got blown away by '04 which was -9.

I remember that my wife and I bought our house November '03, and were fixing it through that winter.  Our pipes froze (built in '46 - insulation was lacking to say the least!!!) and we had like 28 straight days below freezing I remember.  This is in Trumbull CT, not Cape Cod.

 

Completely off topic with this, but if you like Cape Cod Baseball - check out this sizzler I produced: https://vimeo.com/user17595284/review/65652514/5e7f0e2c57

[jamesnichols1989]

I am on the coastline and have over 15". You also did not get 100" in 2009/ 2010.

 

The issue is more with the lows tucking in close to the coast. That probably will change.

 

You didn't get my point obviously.  What I was saying is that we can't expect winters like that every year.  We had a once in 100 year snowfall in 2004-2005, while the DC through PHL region had once in a 100 year snowfall in 2009-2010, we can't expect snowfalls like that every year, its impossible you will drive yourself nuts.  Plus I have had 4" of snow so far.  11" is a big difference on the coastline, its only because the storm track was right over the Cape and Islands.  I agree with you about that.  Anyways I'm starting to get a feeling that I like for after Christmas time frame where we could get several 6"+ events in succession.

[jamesnichols1989]

Models beginning to signal the 26-27th for a potential phasing system on the coastline.  Some models have it, its not an overly confident situation.

[Tropopause_Fold]

99% of the folks won't care, but still some hope for coastal peeps in E/SE MA maybe to snag some light snow Tue / Wed. m

[CoastalWx]

99% of the folks won't care, but still some hope for coastal peeps in E/SE MA maybe to snag some light snow Tue / Wed. m

 

Scooter Christmas Miracle alive and well.

[jamesnichols1989]

Scooter Christmas Miracle alive and well.

 

GFS holding out hope for us on Christmas Day and Tuesday, hopefully this system will come in stronger at H5 and maybe have a neg tilt towards the coast and surprise some of us.

[jamesnichols1989]

GFS has a prolonged period of OES Snow Showers after the front passes through.

[jamesnichols1989]

12z GGEM has a major storm system for Christmas day, whether or not its snow on the coast or not, its a white Christmas for somebody.

[REDMK6GLI]

12z GGEM has a major storm system for Christmas day, whether or not its snow on the coast or not, its a white Christmas for somebody.

Not for anybody south of boston! Lol. Looks good though, holds some merit and looks like a late bloomer but a nice snow for someone

[jamesnichols1989]

Northern stream shortwave sparks frontal wave development in the SE US and it rides up the coast, but stays a bit offshore according the GFS and GGEM 12z runs.  It nicks some of the coastline with precip, whether or not its cold enough for snow is mute at this point as we need a storm system to stay consistent on the models for the time being.

[ORH_wxman]

That would be fun...snowstorm Christmas Eve night into Christmas day on GGEM...right now though it has no support from other guidance. Probably a typical GGEM phantom storm beyond D4-5 which it seems prone to having.

[jamesnichols1989]

That would be fun...snowstorm Christmas Eve night into Christmas day on GGEM...right now though it has no support from other guidance. Probably a typical GGEM phantom storm beyond D4-5 which it seems prone to having.

 

Maybe, but GFS is trying to hint at a frontal wave developing, but just a bit offshore.

[CoastalWx]

It's probably a phantom, but man that would be nice.

[Johnno]

That would be fun...snowstorm Christmas Eve night into Christmas day on GGEM...right now though it has no support from other guidance. Probably a typical GGEM phantom storm beyond D4-5 which it seems prone to having.

What Id give for 3" at HVN Xmas eve... my overpriced ring purchase would be free...snow would be the bonus that day

[jamesnichols1989]

The GGEM would be a 24 hour precip event, with northerly wind trajectory along the coast draining in colder air and fresher air.  Just as the moisture comes up the coastline.  And frontal wave intensifying beyond 1005mb as it comes up the coast and bit offshore.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Merry Christmas!

 

[REDMK6GLI]

Merry Christmas!

f144.gif

That would give some snow to areas south of NE as well. Where do i sign? That does pretty good. Chances of that happening however arent too high i think. Although we still got 5-6 days to go

[jamesnichols1989]

Not too many cons to that run of the 12z GGEM.

[Tropopause_Fold]

GFS ens also have the HP in a pretty good spot to get a N flow going...cold too. would love to steal a little OES out of this tue/wed

[Typhoon Tip]

The last several cycles of the operational GFS are some of the most remarkably cold even possible.  -EPO ridge nodes popping in and out of existence, some to exalted SD ranges just inverts the hemispheric thermal fields.  Creepy cold... Like 490dm thickness over a region the size of 4 texas'.   O-kay.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not too many cons to that run of the 12z GGEM.

 

What's interesting about that x-mass GGEM scenario is that the 12z GFS does have a bit more of a "kinked" look to the mid levels, along with a sfc reflection ... just not in time.

 

The PNA is going through a upward spike during that week, which does carry with it a storm vibe, so it would not be surprising if that gets more coherent in future runs. It's just too low of confidence for now to really comment any further. 

[REDMK6GLI]

What's interesting about that x-mass GGEM scenario is that the 12z GFS does have a bit more of a "kinked" look to the mid levels, along with a sfc reflection ... just not in time.

The PNA is going through a upward spike during that week, which does carry with it a storm vibe, so it would not be surprising if that gets more coherent in future runs. It's just too low of confidence for now to really comment any further.

So its got some merit but has to be kept an eye on for trends. The GFS having some idea as well is encouraging. Be pretty nice if many locations in the northeast can have a white christmas with this possible storm. That "kink" does look pretty good and is sniffing out the PNA shift as well to positive

[Typhoon Tip]

So its got some merit but has to be kept an eye on for trends. The GFS having some idea as well is encouraging. Be pretty nice if many locations in the northeast can have a white christmas with this possible storm. That "kink" does look pretty good and is sniffing out the PNA shift as well to positive

 

 

That's a good way to look at it, and nothing more.  It's just as likely that it's a phantom.  If the PNA were not spiking from -4 to +1 SD running up through x-mass week, ...I mean that's about the only large scale signal the supports something translating through eastern American, and it is impressive to change that large of a domain space by that much delta-mode.  The PNA is truly massive.  If you look at lat/lon demarcations at CDC, and then plot that on the hemisphere it's immense.  So to change it that much, one would almost think there should be something.  But then I checked the index over at CPC,which derives its values via the geopotential anomalies, the rise is a lot more modest, so perhaps the actual deep layer flow is only slightly supportive.

 

Hell...here:   [(15-25N, 180-140W)-(40-50N, 180-140W)+(45-60N, 125W-105W)-(25-35N, 90W-70W)]

 

Here is the PNA ... Also note the newly emering -EPO.   Combined with the operational tempos ...deep winter first half of January?

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

[Tropopause_Fold]

gefs are pretty much status quo right through the end of the run...few spikes in the epo and a permanent vortex near hudson bay...that's been the theme thus far and seems to remain in place. good NW flow across canada from the arctic right down into the lower 48. f.t.w.

[40/70 Benchmark]

gefs are pretty much status quo right through the end of the run...few spikes in the epo and a permanent vortex near hudson bay...that's been the theme thus far and seems to remain in place. good NW flow across canada from the arctic right down into the lower 48. f.t.w.

IDK about some obscure, former NFL has-been by the name of Leon, but that is most defintely a 1994 redux.

[REDMK6GLI]

That's a good way to look at it, and nothing more. It's just as likely that it's a phantom. If the PNA were not spiking from -4 to +1 SD running up through x-mass week, ...I mean that's about the only large scale signal the supports something translating through eastern American, and it is impressive to change that large of a domain space by that much delta-mode. The PNA is truly massive. If you look at lat/lon demarcations at CDC, and then plot that on the hemisphere it's immense. So to change it that much, one would almost think there should be something. But then I checked the index over at CPC,which derives its values via the geopotential anomalies, the rise is a lot more modest, so perhaps the actual deep layer flow is only slightly supportive.

Hell...here: [(15-25N, 180-140W)-(40-50N, 180-140W)+(45-60N, 125W-105W)-(25-35N, 90W-70W)]

Here is the PNA ... Also note the newly emering -EPO. Combined with the operational tempos ...deep winter first half of January?

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

I know the PNA going positive and EPO going negative again may be bringing some downright frigid temps to the Northeast. Looking at the PNA spike that should alone allow for a more conducive setup along the east coast with the -EPO providing the cold air. Theoretically if this were to happen one would have to look at the threat of the strongly positive NAO spoiling the party. Just lots of variables to consider now through this weekend. Lots of weenies dreams realized or shattered

[jamesnichols1989]

NAO alone wouldn't spoil the part, it just doesn't help having it positive.