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December and January Pattern Discussion

Carvers Gap

By Carvers Gap,
in Tennessee Valley

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Afternoon thoughts:

 

All of the indicies seem to be heading in a great direction and it looks like we have a lot of potential as we head into the period centered around New Years and beyond.

 

6 of 11 individual GFS ensemble members show accumulated snow over much of the state of TN by hour 228. (January 2nd)

 

9 of 11 show widespread accumulated snow by hour 324. (January 6th)

 

It's really dangerous to take any model run verbatim, but if we are talking about "signals".........this is about as good a signal for potential snow as you will see in the wintertime from the ensembles.

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Lindsaywx

Lindsaywx

Posted
Posted

Afternoon thoughts:

All of the indicies seem to be heading in a great direction and it looks like we have a lot of potential as we head into the period centered around New Years and beyond.

6 of 11 individual GFS ensemble members show accumulated snow over much of the state of TN by hour 228. (January 2nd)

9 of 11 show widespread accumulated snow by hour 324. (January 6th)

It's really dangerous to take any model run verbatim, but if we are talking about "signals".........this is about as good a signal for potential snow as you will see in the wintertime from the ensembles.

Yeah the signal is there .... the ensembles look great. Would like to see a taller ridge on the EURO but at this point anyone who would not take this look is foolish

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

I had a big............long...........detailed post typed out and ready to submit as it relates to the upcoming projected weather and the weather in Dec of 1987 and January of 1988, but I managed to delete it before posting.  Oh well, here is the shortened version of the sensible weather from that time period.

 

In mid Dec of 1987 the Tennessee valley was raked with severe storms and tornados.  This was followed by a storm around Christmas that caused flooding.  Following this............One of the most widespread winter events I can find for the state of TN happened on January 6-8th of 1988.  It is one of the few west to east storms that I can remember where the entire state of TN was projected to receive 6+ inches of snow and the entire state was under a winter storm warning. Memphis and Nashville areas received 8 inches officially, Chattanooga received 10 inches, Asheville NC received 11 inches, Greenville SC 11 inches, Huntsville had 10 inches, Knoxville had 7 inches, and so on and so forth.  Temperatures were in the teens and 20's during the snow for most areas and at one point, much of the states of Georgia and SC were reporting either sleet, snow, or freezing rain.

 

Here's to hoping history repeats itself.  Since we have just been through the severe weather and flooding, I am ready for the SNOW.

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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

Posted
Posted

I had a big............long...........detailed post typed out and ready to submit as it relates to the upcoming projected weather and the weather in Dec of 1987 and January of 1988, but I managed to delete it before posting.  Oh well, here is the shortened version of the sensible weather from that time period.

 

In mid Dec of 1987 the Tennessee valley was raked with severe storms and tornados.  This was followed by a storm around Christmas that caused flooding.  Following this............One of the most widespread winter events I can find for the state of TN happened on January 6-8th of 1988.  It is one of the few west to east storms that I can remember where the entire state of TN was projected to receive 6+ inches of snow and the entire state was under a winter storm warning. Memphis and Nashville areas received 8 inches officially, Chattanooga received 10 inches, Asheville NC received 11 inches, Greenville SC 11 inches, Huntsville had 10 inches, Knoxville had 7 inches, and so on and so forth.  Temperatures were in the teens and 20's during the snow for most areas and at one point, much of the states of Georgia and SC were reporting either sleet, snow, or freezing rain.

 

Here's to hoping history repeats itself.  Since we have just been through the severe weather and flooding, I am ready for the SNOW.

 

Thanks for posting that, wow.  I'd love to see the models hang tough and follow through on a nice snow region wide.  Even though there isn't much science in saying "we're due", we're due.  BRING IT!

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON DECEMBER 23 2013

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 29, 2013 - JAN 02, 2014

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. A DEEP
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY DOMINATING MOST OF
THE CONUS, WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER ALASKA. ANOTHER TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE BERING
SEA. COMPARED TO THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS, RECENT DETERMINISTIC GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICT LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.

THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS, BUT MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SOUTHWEST U.S.
THIS SPREAD INDICATES LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE
RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
IS ABLE TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE. THE PNA INDEX WHICH HAS RECENTLY BEEN CLOSE TO
ZERO IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH HAS
RECENTLY BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO ZERO THROUGH DAY 14. TODAY'S
BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CONUS AND MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS, AND NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.

BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW COVER FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND MUCH OF ALASKA.

A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE START OF THE PERIOD LEADS TO ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATIONS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY
FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS, WHILE ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10
PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 31, 2013 - JAN 06, 2014

THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THAT FOR DAYS 6-10, AS ARE THE PROBABILITY FORECASTS AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST
RATIONALE. ONE DIFFERENCE INVOLVES SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING EJECTED OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS LEADING TO THE EXPECTATION OF A WETTER PATTERN FOR PARTS OF THE
OHIO AND TENNESSE VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST.



THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

Still a big storm on the OP 228-264, but it brings heavy rain with a track from Dallas to Chattanooga. Basically a big warm nose, rain event with cold chasing.  

 

Still a long way out, and if the storm stays on the board, it's going to be all over the place over the coming 7-8 days. In the wake of the storm -10 to -15c 850s spread out with light NW flow moisture over the area. 

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