Wmsptwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm gonna stick with the 1 to 3 mindset and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 12z Hi-Res NAM is ... a weenie dream come true? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/comploop.html It's beautiful! It all comes down to the warm layer at 800-700mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 12z Hi-Res NAM is ... a weenie dream come true? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/comploop.html You should see the 12z RAP; 8-10" for southern Centre County and 12-18" for the Laurels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 You should see the 12z RAP; 8-10" for southern Centre County and 12-18" for the Laurels. If anything, the 12z KPIT sounding is colder than the 12z NAM forecast for the nearest grid point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 How does RAP and hi res look up our way? Sorry for imby questions but can only access on cell phone lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 You should see the 12z RAP; 8-10" for southern Centre County and 12-18" for the Laurels. The new NAM map actually has some 12" specks across Huntingdon, Bedford and Somerset. Looks like it really goes gangbusters once the cold air finally wins out. Looks like 8-10" for UNV/AOO/JST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 from a quick look at the text output of just 12z NAM... has nearly 1" qpf for IPT with 850 temps below freezing... about .25" of that has the warm layer between 700 and 800mb but then all drops below 0C sometime between 0 and 6z tonight (7pm-1am)... just a matter of when during that time period does the transition occur and how much of the .75" is sleet vs snow UNV in similar boat - same with AOO but a little more precip MDT/LNS rain to sleet to dusting - 1" snow at best AVP/MPO - similar situation as IPT/UNV/AOO but less precip and will depend on how quickly and how far east the colder air aloft moves main thing I am going to try and keep an eye on is the upper level analyses to see if they are determining the temperatures from 700 to 850 to be colder than the models faster or not you have any worries of long duration frzn for us?? i have no pony in this race really, but i'm excited for you guys North and West! It seems so long ago we had any weather to be excited about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 you have any worries of long duration frzn for us?? i have no pony in this race really, but i'm excited for you guys North and West! It seems so long ago we had any weather to be excited about! The new NAM suggests more than a trace of snow around MDT I believe. Any mets want to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Wow...congrats to almost everyone, especially towards the Harrisburg area if this pans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Wow...congrats to almost everyone, especially towards the Harrisburg area if this pans out! Screen Shot 2013-12-06 at 10.13.09 AM.png Screen Shot 2013-12-06 at 7.21.47 AM.png oh hello there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Lets make that happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Wow...congrats to almost everyone, especially towards the Harrisburg area if this pans out! It's definitely overdoing the snow down in KMDT, it's accumulating too much of the borderline/mixed stuff. But 1-2 inches is not unreasonable down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 If anything, the 12z KPIT sounding is colder than the 12z NAM forecast for the nearest grid point. Yup, the wet bulb temperature is pretty much below or at freezing for the entire observed sounding. The 12z NAM initializes the wet bulb temperatures between 850 and 700 mb above freezing for KPIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The new NAM suggests more than a trace of snow around MDT I believe. Any mets want to chime in? I'm not seeing anything significant. Maybe an inch or 2 max. More pellets and less zr this run, so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 If MDT measures 1" or more of snow, I'll buy Sauss a Mad Elf six pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm not seeing anything significant. Maybe an inch or 2 max. More pellets and less zr this run, so that's good. I'm wondering why the NWS doesn't have advisories down closer to you guys. Accumulating snow/sleet should at least make it down to Harrisburg, if not even further at the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm wondering why the NWS doesn't have advisories down closer to you guys. Accumulating snow/sleet should at least make it down to Harrisburg, if not even further at the very end. Speak of the devil, looks like they just expanded them south, and added warnings for the northern/western tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 If MDT measures 1" or more of snow, I'll buy Sauss a Mad Elf six pack. well in all honesty, MDT is East of us, they always have a different number. I'd almost bet where djr and me live we have at least 1" snow. Especially him, he is more West by a couple hundred yards, north by a couple hundred yards and he is elvated by about 30' then me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 WTF is the NWS smoking? http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=PAZ019&warncounty=PAC027&firewxzone=PAZ019&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory#.UqHvz9ewdHA "Up to 1" of snow accumulation"? What model is suggesting less than 1" of snow in State College? For that matter, what model is suggesting less than 3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Haha saw that mallow!! Maybe they saw something they didnt like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Meanwhile, the WWA text for State College calls for up to 1" of accumulation. Mixed precip.... ummm ok URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1026 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 ...WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... .A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW...ICE AND HEAVY SNOW OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... PAZ019-024-025-033-045-046-070130- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0023.131206T2200Z-131207T1000Z/ SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-SOMERSET-SOUTHERN CLINTON- SOUTHERN LYCOMING- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA... SOMERSET...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT 1026 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. * HAZARD TYPES...RAIN...CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/CTP OR STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. REPORT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]... POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET @NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH THE HASHTAG #CTPWX. That makes no sense. Then why does the warning for Philipsburg, 25 miles away, say 5-7 inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 They posted that on their FB page too. People very confused in the comments section. Rightfully so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibson14 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Can anybody explain why some counties in western pa don't even have a winter weather advisory up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA1051 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013...WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ICE AND HEAVY SNOWOVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-041-070200-/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0007.131206T2200Z-131207T1000Z/WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO1051 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THISAFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY...* LOCATIONS...NORTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.USE EXTREME CAUTION IF PLANNING TO TRAVEL. FOR THE LATEST WEATHERINFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/CTP OR STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHERRADIO.REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICESTATE COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]...POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET@NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH THE HASHTAG #CTPWX.&&$$PAZ019-024>028-033>035-042-045-046-049>053-070200-/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0023.131206T2200Z-131207T1000Z/SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK1051 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THISAFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY...* LOCATIONS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.* HAZARD TYPES...WINTRY MIX.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES NEAR INTERSTATE 80 WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH OF ROUTE 22.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH.* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. USE CAUTION IFTRAVELING. FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TOWEATHER.GOV/CTP OR STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.REPORT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICESTATE COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]...POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET@NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH THE HASHTAG #CTPWX.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 WTF is the NWS smoking? http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=PAZ019&warncounty=PAC027&firewxzone=PAZ019&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory#.UqHvz9ewdHA "Up to 1" of snow accumulation"? What model is suggesting less than 1" of snow in State College? For that matter, what model is suggesting less than 3"? Sometimes the NWS has a forecast that's there for like 15 minutes that's totally different. not sure why. Then it gets changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Sometimes the NWS has a forecast that's there for like 15 minutes that's totally different. not sure why. Then it gets changed. Ya, looks like it's been changed now. 2-4 inches is a better conservative estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Any one know if the sun currently being out will affect anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Concerning the next storm Sunday night, it looks like the NAM is in it's own world as far as precip amount. It has over 0.75" for much of the area. The GFS and EURO have less than half this amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 2 to 4 sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Even the HRRR which only goes out to hour 15 is showing 6-8 inches of snow in the State College area. There are going to be a lot of surprised people here considering the local news was still calling for only an inch here this morning. Those are normally overdone at this range but it can give you a good idea of where the heavier snow will set up. Given the storm's speed I don't think we'll see many amounts over 6 or 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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