Jmister Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Makes sense, thanks. No matter what, it looks like a mess is on it's way. It would be interesting to get ice on top of ice for some areas if the models are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 From Zak, He wanted me to post this for you all to read his forecast....Forecaster Zak Briskohttp://www.hwpcwx.org/#!story3/c21cpmight have to adjust snow amounts cause ice is becoming more a concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Can't say I've seen that one before...I think ZL can be freezing drizzle? So freezing drizzle and snow grains? yes ZL is freezing drizzle and SG is snow grains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 No 18z NAM posts yet? It looks pretty nice to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 No 18z NAM posts yet? It looks pretty nice to me! Idk...looks marginal at best for UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 No 18z NAM posts yet? It looks pretty nice to me! It actually does look a bit colder at 850 mb. I can't tell if it still has any above freezing temperatures above 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Idk...looks marginal at best for UNV. Compared to the 12z, it's a huge improvement, no? I mean, at face value it spits out almost an inch of QPF with 850s near or below 0C. Marginal, maybe, be it could still be a great event even so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Compared to the 12z, it's a huge improvement, no? Yeah, I can agree with that - it at least offers a good shot of 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Thoughts? Is that the Euro on Wundermaps? BTW for future ref, Wundermaps seem to be pretty good with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Compared to the 12z, it's a huge improvement, no? Yeah, I can agree with that - it at least offers a good shot of 1-3" I don't know what NAM you're looking at. The one I'm seeing has MUCH more than 1-3 inches, at least based on a cursory glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 WOW NAM is juiced and cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I don't know what NAM you're looking at. The one I'm seeing has MUCH more than 1-3 inches, at least based on a cursory glance. Definitely an improvement 12z: 18z: This is BEFORE the main batch of precip even starts. Maybe there's a brief warm up near 850mb at the beginning of the main batch (around hr 30, Twisterdata hasn't quite loaded that hour yet), but then it cools again immediately thereafter. That looks great to me. EDIT: Twisterdata gave me the wrong hour on the 12z. It's been fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Is that the Euro on Wundermaps? BTW for future ref, Wundermaps seem to be pretty good with snow. Thats what someone else posted it as, so Im not quite sure. I am assuming that it is the latest snow map from the Euro. So what is the Euro seeing that the NAM isn't regarding snow further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Could UNV to IPT squeeze a 2 to 4 out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Still appears to be a bit of a warm layer at 00z Saturday; the thermal gradient is so tight, it depends on exactly where you plot the sounding. This spot seemed to be the best approximation for KUNV, several miles to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Other than a brief snow/sleet mix around hour 30, most of it is snow in State College. With QPFs near an inch, that's more than 1-3 inches. The NAM is likely overdoing the precip as usual, but WRT temperatures, it has support (now) from the Euro, etc. I'm definitely thinking this could be a good event here in State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Mallow how does IPT look? Similar to UNV?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The Euro actually seemed to be a bit colder than the 00z run with the sounding at UNV below freezing by 00z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Could UNV to IPT squeeze a 2 to 4 out of this? I really don't know what's with the skepticism here. I'd say 2 to 4 inches is likely at this point... the question I'm asking is "could UNV squeeze a 6"+ out of this?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Still appears to be a bit of a warm layer at 00z Saturday; the thermal gradient is so tight, it depends on exactly where you plot the sounding. This spot seemed to be the best approximation for KUNV, several miles to the northeast. Fair point. The gradient is REALLY tight, so model interpolation is going to be the best we have. That being said, I don't think this is the coldest NAM run we're going to see, either. It's probably going to trend a bit colder from here on out (towards the Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Mallow how does IPT look? Similar to UNV?? Closest sounding to IPT shows more of a sleet look to me, but it wouldn't surprise me if that changed over the coming NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Haha all I know how to do is look at the purple line we seem to be north of it most of the time but I know that can still mean sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 CTP snowmap has <1" for my area while CTP grids for Friday night continue to say snow, maybe mixed with sleet and zr..turning to all snow after 10pm with a half to three quarters of QPF. Same thing for places like Johnstown and State College. Somethins gotta give there, they should be issuing their afternoon updates shortly. Thoughts? The Euro has continued to be the most supportive model for a sizable snowfall in most of Central PA vs the other models that focus more on Western/NW PA. AccuPro's 3D cross section product helps alot with visualizing the progression of the cold air. I wish I could post a pic of it but thats a big no no. Taking a cross section from Pit across the state to Allentown using the Euro shows that the cold air undercuts west to east from about 850mb and lower first initially leaving the relatively warm layer from 850 to 700mb that has been discussed about. However that particular layer is cold enough (barely) to support snow all through the column when it counts at hours 36 and 42 for the central areas...probably at the expense of good snow ratios. Cold enough air at those levels don't quite get to the Sus Valley in time for very much snow, although the 0ºC isotherm is undercutting at about 925mb. This warmer layer between 850-700mb also makes for higher 1000-500mb thickness and thus you can't really use the traditional 540 line to place the rain/snow line. The 546 line might be a better one to use in this instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Fair point. The gradient is REALLY tight, so model interpolation is going to be the best we have. That being said, I don't think this is the coldest NAM run we're going to see, either. It's probably going to trend a bit colder from here on out (towards the Euro). Definitely a decent chance of that happening, especially with the 12z Euro a hair colder than 00z over central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hi-Res NAM keeps it a mix in State College, but is much improved over the 12z run. Let's keep this trend up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hahaha, I will take my 1 to 3 and like it!! I'm clinging on to that 2011 storm for hope that had rain to snow lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 People SE of the UNV-IPT corridor shouldn't get their hopes up based on this clown map (yet), but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hi-Res NAM keeps it a mix in State College, but is much improved over the 12z run. Let's keep this trend up! How are soundings looking for above 850mb this run? I agree it's much improved and if it comes down heavy enough, the snow might just make it down if the warm layer isn't too thick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Lol, too late hopes are up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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