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December 21-22 inverted trough/retro precip midweek threat


MaineJayhawk

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I am confused yet again. I am looking at http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/massachusetts.php#tabs and seeing that, although minimal, the Worcester Plateau shows it will receive more snow than those just east of it. This snow coming from the NE, therefore I would think that it would break up and fizzle as it moved west and that the totals would be reverse. Anyone care to explain what is happening and why the model suggests as it does?

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How does that WRF hi res BTV model look this morning that you posted yesterday?

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/

Its ok... definitely backed off a bit but still hits your area with some light snow. Has a little blip of >.1" QPF again near Union, CT.

Its run off Flash so I can't copy and past the images... and I'm not on my home computer so I can't do the print-screen MS Paint routine either.

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http://www.erh.noaa....tv/html/4kmwrf/

Its ok... definitely backed off a bit but still hits your area with some light snow. Has a little blip of >.1" QPF again near Union, CT.

Its run off Flash so I can't copy and past the images... and I'm not on my home computer so I can't do the print-screen MS Paint routine either.

Yeah def gives measurable snow to all of Eastern CT/NW RI. I'm sticking with 1-2 inches from TOL county north and east

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http://www.erh.noaa....tv/html/4kmwrf/

Its ok... definitely backed off a bit but still hits your area with some light snow. Has a little blip of >.1" QPF again near Union, CT.

Its run off Flash so I can't copy and past the images... and I'm not on my home computer so I can't do the print-screen MS Paint routine either.

That is a cool model to look at, I like that.

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Snow not sticking here three blocks from Casco Bay. Matt - sticking in Standish?

No, roads are melted right now. The snow is just barely coming down though and it is 33-34 ish. Lewiston just had some heavier snow go through, but don't worry, way too early yet. The heavier bands of snow just entered the radar scope in New Brunswick.

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The next 48 hour snowfall map

My reasoning is based on a 00z HIRES NMM/ARW blend combo with the 12z NAM/and colder based 6z GFS

QPF regionwide roughly .25-.5", with enhanced areas of .5-.75" and .05 to .25" of QPF as one heads southwestward across SNE to just potential flurries southwest of the there.

Bust potential exists for the 6-12" in Maine, as well as could bust too high over the Cape as BL temps could become an issue, especially if banding cannot get south enough. The area where I could bust too low exists from Cape Ann to Bar Harbor, ME as temperatures could cool enough to allow better accumulations as the heaviest snow bands drift southwestward.

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The next 48 hour snowfall map

My reasoning is based on a 00z HIRES NMM/ARW blend combo with the 12z NAM/and colder based 6z GFS

QPF regionwide roughly .25-.5", with enhanced areas of .5-.75" and .05 to .25" of QPF as one heads southwestward across SNE to just potential flurries southwest of the there.

Bust potential exists for the 6-12" in Maine, as well as could bust too high over the Cape as BL temps could become an issue, especially if banding cannot get south enough. The area where I could bust too low exists from Cape Ann to Bar Harbor, ME as temperatures could cool enough to allow better accumulations as the heaviest snow bands drift southwestward.

Very reasonable map, good job.

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OK so 12Z GFS looks very good for Maine. They have the snow building in this afternoon and snowing moderately all night until tomorrow. I would be angry just over the border if I lived inland about 15 miles in NH, and MA, the GFS has amounts really dropping off. Us Mainers look like we will get 4-8 inches, 4 near the NH border and 8 near Bangor depending on how cold or warm it gets. I think 6 is actually a good number for Portland since they actually have Portland in the .5-.75 range now. I wouldn't be surprised if a little more than that fell.

gfs_p36_036l.gif

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