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MaineJayhawk

NNE Autumn 2013 Thread

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31.3° at my house when I left at 7:30.  It looks like MPV and MVL both got down to 30°.  I didn't see any lights last night but I don't really have a good view to the north.

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So far, the average high temp in October is less than 1 degree colder than the average high for the entire month of September...

 

September average high: 69.3F

October average high so far: 68.5F

 

That September average high includes four 80F+ days and one 90F day, too! 

 

Similar at my place thru 10/8:

Sept highs:  66.33

Oct highs   65.75

 

Today's frosty 27F should pull down the overall avg, though - first freeze, first sub-30, about a week or so later than avg.  Median is 9/30 for first 28 or lower.

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Can anyone explain why my area never seems to radiate that well. Only bottomed out at 42.5F. Even coastal areas were colder. I feel slighted by mother nature. :violin:

 

Are you on a hilltop, sidehill, or valley bottom?  How about fog - I had none this morning while 15 miles south it was dense, no frost, and the temp on the bank in Belgrade was 42.  (It's generally too warm by 2-3F, but even allowing for that it was about 12F milder than at my bottom of the hill frost pocket.)

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Are you on a hilltop, sidehill, or valley bottom?  How about fog - I had none this morning while 15 miles south it was dense, no frost, and the temp on the bank in Belgrade was 42.  (It's generally too warm by 2-3F, but even allowing for that it was about 12F milder than at my bottom of the hill frost pocket.)

We are on a hill at 750'. It's quite dramatic when I leave my house in the morning and drop down to ~350' and the temp difference can be ~3-6F colder. I understand the lower level valleys will be colder, but when I come home at night, we're always colder then below, but the outcome is the opposite by the morning. I figured the drop in temp of ~3F for every 1000' gain in altitude would apply, but maybe that only happens in more mountainous areas?

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Posted this in the Winter 13-14 thread, but figured some here in NNE would enjoy this read.  FamousInternetskiers.com (written by poster adk on here) did a nice piece comparing Mansfield COOP snowfall data with ENSO state, as well as NAO. 

 

I agree with pretty much all of it and its all based on the caveat that the Mansfield Coop snowfall data is suspect (vastly under-reported most years due to collection issues)...but it is what is there and the period of record is significant.

 

 

http://www.famousint...winter-outlook/

 

 

Snip of the summary...

 

"So what does this tell us?

 

First it seems that there isn’t a direct correlation between the ENSO state and either the total snowfall on Mt. Mansfield or the frequency of snowfall. That alone is a fairly significant conclusion (albeit one that would need more research to conclude with authority). Just about every winter-outlook you read relies on the ENSO state…what our data shows is that the ENSO state may be afforded too much credit.

There does however seem to be some “sweet-spot” towards a weak La Nina. It looks like if a borderline La Nina develops, the probability of favorable snow conditions in Vermont increases.

 

However, there doesn’t seem to be a correlation for other ENSO states. What we are likely seeing is some third variable at play. Something we haven’t figured out yet; something no one has figured out yet.

 

Second, the NAO state doesn’t need to be very negative to produce active winters or deep winters. Many people are trained with the mindset that big negative NAO anomalies mean big winters. That may be true in Boston or New York, but it doesn’t seem to be true for Mansfield. However, our data shows that’s not true. Middle of the road NAO values are fine."

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Maybe just as cool as the aurora itself, VIIRS was able to capture the display on its day/night band last night just after 4 AM. By bouncing back and forth between the fog product and the day/night band we're able to tell that the bright, cloud-like features in Canada are indeed aurora and not clouds.

 

post-44-0-52323700-1381342320_thumb.jpg

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Most of Canada got one helluva show last night then! Very cool shot and thanks for sharing Ocean.

 

I'm definitely geeking out about this new satellite suite. I think it's pretty cool that we can see city lights at night, let alone aurora. Too bad it's not overhead all the time.

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We are on a hill at 750'. It's quite dramatic when I leave my house in the morning and drop down to ~350' and the temp difference can be ~3-6F colder. I understand the lower level valleys will be colder, but when I come home at night, we're always colder then below, but the outcome is the opposite by the morning. I figured the drop in temp of ~3F for every 1000' gain in altitude would apply, but maybe that only happens in more mountainous areas?

It's a similar deal here with me and CON. I'll get nice cooling after sunset, but CON usually catches me around midnight. All of the nice surface radiational cooling that we get on the hills just drains down into the lower elevations. This is one of the times of the year where I can approach CON mins though because they will often fog up a few hours before sunrise while I keep slowly cooling above the valley fog.

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