David Reimer Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Thread title needs updating. It was a manderin at 5pm and now a TS at 9:00. Clearly NHC didn't think this would develop this fast. It was a mandarin at 2 PM EDT, a Tropical Depression at 5 PM EDT, and will become a Tropical Storm with the 11 PM EDT advisory. It is not a TS until an official advisory is released. In terms of development, I think its right on schedule and continues a slow intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I'm waiting for when Big ball of disorganized convection meets small ball of organized convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I'm waiting for when Big ball of disorganized convection meets small ball of organized convection. Too bad terrain will probably block that band from entering the circulation until Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Strong MJO phase 1 in Sep and the CMC ftw. Let's see if this ever makes H status Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Is it me or is she heading due north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Is it me or is she heading due north In the last few frames of the visible satellite it did look like it wobbled north. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 5, 2013 Author Share Posted September 5, 2013 "DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE IS TILTED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88DRADAR. THIS TILTED STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH SOUTHERLY TOSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KT SHOWN OVER THE CYCLONEBY THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL ANALYSES. IN ADDITION...THEDROPSONDE DATA SHOWED DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHEREAROUND GABRIELLE. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZEDSTATE OF THE CIRCULATION...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION...AND THEPRESENCE OF THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTHEAST OFGABRIELLE...NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUSAIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THELOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASSUMINGTHAT GABRIELLE SURVIVES...ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWNLATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF ANUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BELOW MUCH OF THEINTENSITY GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS TOO HIGH GIVENTHE INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THEGLOBAL MODELS...WHICH DO NOT SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AFTERGABRIELLE MOVES NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA." The horror known as the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 if it stays weak does that effect the track at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 If this becomes a 65-kt hurricane, I'm gonna be pissed. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 That big Lemon next to Gaby just makes the whole thing look like a mess. Lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Well at least it's something to watch. Can't say it's all that impressive looking on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 GFS- Gabrielle almost looks like it weakens enough to maybe escape the trough and stall as a weak system. Just South of Bermuda, if shallow enough, looks like the 700 mb ridge may build far enough out into the Atlantic to start it heading back West or Southwest. Glass eight full. It'd be between 25 knot and 45 knot 250 mb wind barbs, per GFS, so it should be a shallow system. May decouple then die. But maybe not. Just through 5 1/2 days, bed time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 That big Lemon next to Gaby just makes the whole thing look like a mess. Lolz.Boy you don't seem to be having a good time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I see there is a Special Marine Warning SE of Puerto Rico. I thought there couldn't be a special marine warning for areas covered by a TS or Hurricane warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Boy you don't seem to be having a good time this season. Sorry. I shouldn't be so negative, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Sorry. I shouldn't be so negative, I guess. I completely understand the negativity. You're living the storm chaser version of the death ridge in the spring of 2010. Keep the faith man, there will eventually be a chaseable storm, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 It looks like it will take the eastern part of the track and go over Purto Rico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Its weird NHC has the center due south of Ponce but on the radar it looks to be southeast of Caguas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Ladies and Gentlemen, I think we have an eye forming. It almost looks like the center has reformed to the east next to the heavy convention. Look at the velocity profiles and Puerto Rico observations, and that will tell you otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I completely understand the negativity. You're living the storm chaser version of the death ridge in the spring of 2010. Keep the faith man, there will eventually be a chaseable storm, right? You're right-- just gotta keep the faith. Thank you. Re: Gaby... It seems structurally confused, with mixed signals from radar, surface obs, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Ladies and Gentlemen, I think we have an eye forming. It almost looks like the center has reformed to the east next to the heavy convention. Look at the velocity profiles and Puerto Rico observations, and that will tell you otherwise. Huge diurnal convection pulse this morning... There is most definitely a coherent ring of enhanced convection developing.. just can't tell if it's located over the center of the low-level vortex, or if it will redevelop one to the east. It's about time we see some nice tropical convection for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Interesting, as of last hour the pressure in lower in San Juan than in Ponce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 The system east of Gabrielle is also getting absorbed currently. It was always unlikely that both systems would be able to coexist like the GFS was depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Unfortunately the sfc center is still very poorly defined... The velocity return on radar leave much to be desired. Satellite estimates might say this is a TS, but I'm not sure that's backed up by the obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 5am update NHC is going slightly more with the easterly track now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I expected more when I went to bed last night. I am disappoint. 6Z GFS removes the mid level moisture off to the Northeast, with a remnant low drifting back towards Florida in a week. Maybe we'd get lucky, shear should be lighter then, maybe it'll spin up over the Gulf Stream. Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I expected more when I went to bed last night. I am disappoint. 6Z GFS removes the mid level moisture off to the Northeast, with a remnant low drifting back towards Florida in a week. Maybe we'd get lucky, shear should be lighter then, maybe it'll spin up over the Gulf Stream. Probably not. Why are you disappoint? Don't you want to hit the 11 Sep record?? You want to give up the opportunity for historic lameness for a 65-kt fish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Why are you disappoint? Don't you want to hit the 11 Sep record?? You want to give up the opportunity for historic lameness for a 65-kt fish? Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I don't post here much but hasn't this system totally reorganized into one, and relocated to PRs east, stationary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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