hudsonvalley21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Upton's latest maps show no ice basically for the northern 1/2 of Orange county and 0.10 of ice for southern sections of the county. Snow accums. of 10-14 for most of the county excluding the n/e corner witch is at 8-10. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z NAM was warm, but GFS and RGEM held serve with little frozen other than snow for those north of 84. In fact, the 6z RGEM seems to have increased accumulations a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z NAM was warm, but GFS and RGEM held serve with little frozen other than snow for those north of 84. In fact, the 6z RGEM seems to have increased accumulations a touch. It seems like the NAM might have issues by comments in the NYC 4th-6th storm thread and comments from the WPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Man...i think its gonna be messy here in Rockland. I dont think we see those totals, but i think we will have an extended period of kitchen sink thrown at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Made it down to 4 got a low. Upton calling for 8-12 here, oh how I love snow on top of existing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It seems like the NAM might have issues by comments in the NYC 4th-6th storm thread and comments from the WPC. When does the NAM not have issues? Though it does seem like it's having a halfway decent winter, at least compared to last year. I certainly don't see our area staying all snow, but I think we are probably something like 80-90% snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yes, we get a very good thump regardless, but that changeover really screws us from the bigger totals. This could have easily been a 10-12 inch event if it would remain all snow. I think your location and depending upon elevation you should be good for around a foot of snow and not much changeover, maybe a little sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Such a pretty graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GGEM really wants to bring mixing issues to areas even north of Orange County...let's hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Both the OZ GFS and NAM spit out .85 total accum precip for KMGJ, I don't seeing that happen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 After seeing the 12ZNAM, this is going to suck in my back yard. thump of snow over to sleet and possibly freezing rain. Solid Ice Storm. I just do't see the higher snow total coming to life in my backyard. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 After seeing the 12ZNAM, this is going to suck in my back yard. thump of snow over to sleet and possibly freezing rain. Solid Ice Storm. I just do't see the higher snow total coming to life in my backyard. Best I think this area gets saved by sleet eating up some of the QPF. That doesn't mean no ZR, but it might be the difference between moderate and severe icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 4km NAM looks ugly. Heavy sleet storm here with major icing to the south. I never saw this as a 10-14" storm as the NWS is predicting, but at this point, I wonder if we even have trouble getting to 6" here. I hate sleet more than anything. I'd honestly prefer rain over sleet. We'll see what the GFS does soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 4km NAM looks ugly. Heavy sleet storm here with major icing to the south. I never saw this as a 10-14" storm as the NWS is predicting, but at this point, I wonder if we even have trouble getting to 6" here. I hate sleet more than anything. I'd honestly prefer rain over sleet. We'll see what the GFS does soon. It looked favorable until yesterday morning for a mostly snow event. NAM lead the way with the warm mid layers. I would much rather have sleet instead of freezing rain. Got to hope the front end thump is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Please no rain/frzg rain. I hate sleet but other than being heavy and a PITA to shovel it packs the snow down so it lasts longer (and in my case makes it better for riding a fatbike) and it's nowhere near as dangerous if you have to leave home and do stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Having a brain fart - What year was it that the last two storms were all sleet with no snow and then the first two storms of the next season (still the same year) were all sleet storms? Those were the least pleasant snow shoveling experiences of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GGEM really wants to bring mixing issues to areas even north of Orange County...let's hope not Thats the RGEM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 talk about riding the line.. I think I-84 and north is on the cusp of staying all snow but any small tweak/shift in the thermal profiles is going to allow for some taint.. I think there will be taint for the mid-hudson valley, but not before a solid 8-10.. Hopefully we dry slot by then anyway.. It's going to be interesting to unfold... The mid HV tends to do well with these exact set ups so I think this will be our biggest snowfall of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 talk about riding the line.. I think I-84 and north is on the cusp of staying all snow but any small tweak/shift in the thermal profiles is going to allow for some taint.. I think there will be taint for the mid-hudson valley, but not before a solid 8-10.. Hopefully we dry slot by then anyway.. It's going to be interesting to unfold... The mid HV tends to do well with these exact set ups so I think this will be our biggest snowfall of the season so far. I think we get 6-8" then taint, but it's going to be close. Things are certainly trending warmer. It all depends on how quick and heavy the snow comes in. The December storm was great, that hit like a wall and got us a solid 7-8", and this system seems to have more moisture to work with. DT's "first guess" https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/-first-guess-feb-5-6-ice-storm-threat-high-for-some/642966822417246 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow, DT really expecting taint all the way to the pike. Tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6-10" is my call right now for the area... 6" line I think will be at the NJ/NY border with 10" up to a New Paltz-Pou line. Anything north of there should be all snow. I think Upton is riding last nights Euro which is pretty much all snow throughout the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow, DT really expecting taint all the way to the pike. Tough forecast. Saw in the NE forum that the NWS Boston tweeted that the 12z NAM initialized too warm due to convective feedback, which is pretty typical of the NAM. I guess it's going to come down to nowcasting to see how much snow vs sleet/freezing rain that we get. Our friends in Albany look to do quite well from this storm. They had a pretty lean January with snow from what I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It could not have been more perfectly timed.. I fly to Denver and then on to San Diego on Sunday.. Planned this over a month ago and in the back of my head, I thought to myself 'I bet there will be a snow storm in the NE precisely when I leave the region the ONE TIME this entire winter' What would you do if in two days from now, guidance shows a monster? Cancel the trip? I really would be sick in the head to want to see a snowstorm vs. enjoy 60s and sunshine in San Diego, but it is crossing my mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It could not have been more perfectly timed.. I fly to Denver and then on to San Diego on Sunday.. Planned this over a month ago and in the back of my head, I thought to myself 'I bet there will be a snow storm in the NE precisely when I leave the region the ONE TIME this entire winter' What would you do if in two days from now, guidance shows a monster? Cancel the trip? I really would be sick in the head to want to see a snowstorm vs. enjoy 60s and sunshine in San Diego, but it is crossing my mind! If you cancel that trip and ruin that storm for the rest of us you'll never hear the end of it LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If you cancel that trip and ruin that storm for the rest of us you'll never hear the end of it LOL. LOL I have until Thursday night to make up my mind.....Hopefully we will have a good handle on it by then. Back to more the immediate task at hand...GEFS 12Z still looks like a decent thump before we taint. I think it is pretty much locked in now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow, the Euro looks really white. Has Putnam/Orange counties northward with 8-10"+. 850's make it up to about the north borders of Orange and Putnam before sinking back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow, the Euro looks really white. Has Putnam/Orange counties northward with 8-10"+. 850's make it up to about the north borders of Orange and Putnam before sinking back south. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 15Z SREFs look good.. The 850 0C line runs right over I84 at hour 27Z before sinking south again. The 2M freezing line never gets north of South Putnam. I think it is all systems go now for the mid-hudson valley for a decent event.. Shoveling is going to suck tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 My location may be the line between all snow & sleet. I would be surprised that if and when I switch over that people on or near i 84 don't switch over too. Going to be an intersting storm to follow. Morning commute is going to be brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nice. Think I'll stay home again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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