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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - Discussion


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Complete shaft job here in the Poconos.

 

From Binghamton.

 

BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTN.

CNSDRD DROPPING THE ADVISORY FOR PIKE AND SULLIVAN BUT WITH LGT

SNOW STILL FALLING...WILL LEAVE UP FOR NOW AND ALLOW THE EVENING

SHIFT TO KILL IT. OTRW

 

It was expected bro... my 2-4" call yesterday ended up being too high lol. How much do you have over there?

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0032.html

 

 

Mesoscale Discussion 32 < Previous MD mcd0032.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD/NRN VA/DE/NJ/SERN PA/SERN MY/SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 212128Z - 220330Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL -- ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND -- WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER
HOUR EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EXTENDING FROM NRN VA/ERN MD NEWD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SNOWFALL IS OCCURRING WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NRN AND NWRN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE LOW
ANALYZED JUST OFF THE SERN VA COAST...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN/SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME AS A STRONG UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES DIGGING INTO/ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GA THIS EVENING.

THIS BAND OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CHANGE ORIENTATION THIS
EVENING -- FROM BEING A SW-NE BAND TO MORE SSW-NNE CONFIGURATION --
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH
TIME. THAT BEING SAID THOUGH...THE PIVOTING BAND OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE /TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S/ SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS AT OR ABOVE
15-1 WILL AID IN ENHANCEMENT OF THE ALREADY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
RATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER
HOUR AFFECTING THE PHILADELPHIA/NEW YORK CITY/BOSTON CORRIDOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..GOSS.. 01/21/2014


ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...
LWX...

LAT...LON 41236955 40977023 40957093 40767194 40357291 39987345
39487385 38667446 38157529 38217701 38547792 39587808
40607665 42787178 42827079 42647018 42196950 41236
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0032.html

Mesoscale Discussion 32 < Previous MD mcd0032.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0328 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD/NRN VA/DE/NJ/SERN PA/SERN MY/SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 212128Z - 220330Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL -- ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM THE

MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND -- WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER

HOUR EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EXTENDING FROM NRN VA/ERN MD NEWD INTO

SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SNOWFALL IS OCCURRING WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED

DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NRN AND NWRN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE LOW

ANALYZED JUST OFF THE SERN VA COAST...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO

DEEPEN/SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME AS A STRONG UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH

CONTINUES DIGGING INTO/ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GA THIS EVENING.

THIS BAND OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CHANGE ORIENTATION THIS

EVENING -- FROM BEING A SW-NE BAND TO MORE SSW-NNE CONFIGURATION --

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH

TIME. THAT BEING SAID THOUGH...THE PIVOTING BAND OF HEAVIEST

SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND

REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE /TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GENERALLY

RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S/ SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS AT OR ABOVE

15-1 WILL AID IN ENHANCEMENT OF THE ALREADY HEAVY PRECIPITATION

RATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER

HOUR AFFECTING THE PHILADELPHIA/NEW YORK CITY/BOSTON CORRIDOR

THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..GOSS.. 01/21/2014

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...

LWX...

Maybe we can still salvage something?

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Interesting updated forecast discussion -

ALL WARNINGS REMAIN UP IN PLACE...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS STILL 8 TO

12 INCHES AT THE COAST....AND 4 TO 8 INCHES INLAND. A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES WITH

AVERAGE AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE JUST SHY OF THE 6 INCH CRITERIA.

THIS AREA RESIDES JUST NW OF THE BANDED SNOW AND MAY GET IMPACTED

FOR A SHORT TIME WITH HEAVIER SNOW RATES EARLY THIS EVENING.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN HOW LONG THE HEAVY SNOW BAND

REMAINS IN PLACE THIS EVENING AND ITS PRECISE LACTATION. THIS

COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF VARIABILITY

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I think noaa is way off with that mesoscale band map I think all the decent precip will stay from Rockland south but at least it's white and cold

You have to keep an eye on the precip out in the Lehigh valley area of Pa. There appears a bit of back-filling moving n/e. That might give us some. The humidity obs at KSWF went up from the last obs. That is a positive thing up this way.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0&MR=1

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You have to keep an eye on the precip out in the Lehigh valley area of Pa. There appears a bit of back-filling moving n/e. That might give us some. The humidity obs at KSWF went up from the last obs. That is a positive thing up this way.

It looks to me especially the way it was modeled is that precip will slide south of us once the pivot is complete

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