jordanwx Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 As someone who spent several years of grad school studying the THC, let me save you trouble: that is the stupidest, sloppiest work I've ever seen. No, the THC argument actually makes a lot of sense. Anomalous subsidence and dry air over the deep tropics has been largely a result of the anomalous meridonal atmospheric circulation (mass transport/flux) in the north and south atlantic basins. This is a result of the merdional SSTA pattern. A weakening of the thermohaline circulation would directly influence the meridional SSTA pattern. Furthermore, although CSU blames the "Thermohaline Circulation", the parameters they include in their THC Proxy, aren't strictly looking at the THC. CSU is looking at polar SSTs, meridional wind, and SLP (see below). These variables are intended to describe the atmospheric and oceanic meridional circulation. In other words, CSU's conclusion cites the same problem many of us, myself included, have been looking at all season long: The Meridional Circulation of the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere over the Atlantic Basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Only six months to the 2014 Atlantic Tropical Season. Well, 7 months, but the thread will come by May... Errata: no, actually six months, and five months to the 2014 thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Only six months to the 2014 Atlantic Tropical Season. Well, 7 months, but the thread will come by May... Errata: no, actually six months, and five months to the 2014 thread actually the 2014 thread starts in 32 days. Just ask Josh or see 2013 thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 I suppose I'll start it in late December. But I have to say, the NATL has left me feeling really cold and unenthused. The fact that I felt forced to chase in the WPAC this year-- something I never had the slightest interest in doing-- is just a testament to the incredible lameness of the NATL during the last half-decade. I can see having a bad year here and there, but this is just getting ridiculous. If you're into real, red-meat, deep-tropical action, the basin has completely sucked since 2008-- that was the last decent season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 I know this is the NATL thread, but for the folks that haven't seen it, here's my video from a Philippine city during a direct hit by a Cat 5. Don't be deceived by the calm beginning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Invest 90L Last Updated: 12/4/2013, 7:00:00 AM (Eastern Standard Time) Wind: 60 MPH Location: 32.1 28.5W Movement: SSW at 10 mph http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2013/Invest-90L?map=model http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2013/Invest-90L?map=sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Crazy European 36-km WRF has a cute little system... Sprechen sie Deutsch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1250 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF THE AZORESISLANDS. THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS OF NEAR 60 MPH...AND SOMEADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXTDAY OR SO BEFORE IT IS AFFECTED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ANDMOVES OVER COLDER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING ASUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEASFORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHEROUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED NEAR 1 PM EST THURSDAYDECEMBER 5...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMOHEADER FQNT50 LFPW. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTSON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER BEVEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1250 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS OF NEAR 60 MPH...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT IS AFFECTED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND MOVES OVER COLDER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED NEAR 1 PM EST THURSDAY DECEMBER 5...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER BEVEN Not terrible for an possible Sub-Tropical low in the middle of nowhere in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Lolz. That is just sorry-lookin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The 2014 season Atlantic Tropical Action thread might get off to an early start this year. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znI2g_3a5O4&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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