ice1972 Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 This thread has been a slice of heaven.....thanks man.....I needed it When was that "derecho" last year that rolled through SW CT or so.....was it this time or earlier like July? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Almost time to track snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 No derecho..but certainly a very very active weak is in store for us MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ASMODELS SHOWING LARGE SPREAD. GFS MAY BE TOO AMPLIFIED WITH TUESHORTWAVE WHILE ECMWF LOOKS TOO STRONG WITH WED-THU SHORTWAVE. THEREWILL LIKELY BE MULTIPLE BOUTS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THIS PERIODBUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. A WASHOUT NOT EXPECTED BUT SCTSHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TIME TO TIME. TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS BUTWILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Humid high 70's low 80's with bouts of storms. Sounds active I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 DT with a great explanation of why we really need to be alert for this next week in New england. From about 2:30- 6:00 minutes in. Going to be very active for us next week. If you have a few minutes, take a peek WXRISK.COM @WXRISKCOM19m http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzwtInfXFjY … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Man I should make videos and hype tweets...I really could have Kevin on his knees like a dog begging for a treat. Picture Kevin on two legs as I dangle a map showing 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Overall the threat appears to be from NY State into all of New England..the bigger heat stays west..and we are warm and unstable enough to reap the benefits Also known as the Ring of fire. Looking forward to it No derecho..but certainly a very very active weak is in store for us DT with a great explanation of why we really need to be alert for this next week in New england. From about 2:30- 6:00 minutes in. Going to be very active for us next week. In less than 24 hours, you've taken it down from a new thread for a 7 day derecho threat to "no derecho" but Dave Tolleris wants us to know that we might get a severe shot next week? You're KILLING ME. TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS BUTWILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID. I guess another high heat and high dews call has busted, so this is what's left. Any port in a 7-day hyped storm, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 In less than 24 hours, you've taken it down from a new thread for a 7 day derecho threat to "no derecho" but Dave Tolleris wants us to know that we might get a severe shot next week? You're KILLING ME. I guess another high heat and high dews call has busted, so this is what's left. Any port in a 7-day hyped storm, I suppose. As you well know..with me you get everything. You'll experience high points, low points, extremes and everything that tickles you in between. I'll bring you to top of the mountain..but that doesn't mean you won't taste the bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 GFS still with the "Ring of Fire " signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 i think this ends up SW of us. i'd want to see it modeled going through NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 Euro interesting look to it mid week and again next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 "....SOME OF THIS MSTR AND MID LVL ENERGY WILL BE INCORPORATEDINTO THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR ONE OR MORE EPISODES OFCONVECTION FROM THE EXTREME NRN TIER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND/OR MIDATLC...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 All I really see the potential for next Thursday into next weekend is MCS potential as Scott had mentioned several times. Other than that there is really nothing suggesting "derecho" potential or better yet even severe weather. Now...as we move through next weekend and into the first week of September could the threat for severe weather increase? i think that is a possibility but it all depends on how the heat ridge evolves and whether or not we can get into the hotter/more humid airmass with steeper lapse rates. Just b/c we have a 500mb setup on paper that looks great doesn't mean it actually is. When you look at things in more detail you'll see that while that 500mb pattern does look yummy what's associated with it is garbage, at least for us. However, it is highly suggestive of MCS episodes and potentially several but a flag is raised b/c dynamics will be meh and things don't look appetizing for instability, especially elevated. Maybe some potential for strong storms late Monday or Tuesday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 All I really see the potential for next Thursday into next weekend is MCS potential as Scott had mentioned several times. Other than that there is really nothing suggesting "derecho" potential or better yet even severe weather. Now...as we move through next weekend and into the first week of September could the threat for severe weather increase? i think that is a possibility but it all depends on how the heat ridge evolves and whether or not we can get into the hotter/more humid airmass with steeper lapse rates. Just b/c we have a 500mb setup on paper that looks great doesn't mean it actually is. When you look at things in more detail you'll see that while that 500mb pattern does look yummy what's associated with it is garbage, at least for us. However, it is highly suggestive of MCS episodes and potentially several but a flag is raised b/c dynamics will be meh and things don't look appetizing for instability, especially elevated. Maybe some potential for strong storms late Monday or Tuesday though. Watch DT's video..There certainly is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Watch DT's video..There certainly is I did watch it. If you look at that 500mb pattern and just that your mouth would water. I know the 500mb pattern can be highly telling of what to expect but if you really look at it closer and into more detail you'll see looks can be deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 My point is when you look at that 500mb pattern you would get pretty excited, however, if you look at the pattern at 700mb and 850mb they are just about as unfavorable as you want for any severe weather chances. You want ridging at these levels here...or at least be on the crest of a ridge, not be in a trough with closed lows to your NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 For example, take a look at the 700mb pattern for the superdrecho and then for the Labor Day derecho Labor Day Derecho http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0907.php Superderecho http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us0715.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 At this point , it looks convectively fun MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THENORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OFSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EACH DAY. SEVERAL LOWPRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE MOVING NEAR TO ORACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENTON THE TIMING OR TRACKS OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. FOR THISTIME PERIOD WILL STICK MAINLY WITH THE WPC FORECAST WHICHINCORPORATES BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. WHILE ATLEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED EACHDAY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 DT's latest FB post...doesn't look all that close to New England. These things seem to trend SW with time too. Would like to see it progged n NNE or southern Quebec right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Of course he makes a post about it, it's progged to go through his backyard. If that was progged to go over New England, he wouldn't say boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 The pattern across the mid-Atlantic is just as unfavorable for a "derecho" as it is across New England for the timeframe of interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 The pattern across the mid-Atlantic is just as unfavorable for a "derecho" as it is across New England for the timeframe of interestHow is the pattern "unfavorable?" Yes, mid-level lapse rates look like crap, but there's pretty good kinematic support, fair MUCAPE and the overall upper-air pattem coincides with some climo derecho events. I'm not calling for one by any means, but I do think there's legit MCS potential from the Great Lakes into the middle Appalachians, if not the mid-Atlantic coastal plain as well. Getting hyped up about this in SNE is worse than getting excited over a Day 7 SPC outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Wtf is the point of a derecho post? How often have we seen them in the past 20 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Wtf is the point of a derecho post? How often have we seen them in the past 20 years? Classic Kevin thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Classic Kevin thread. This is one of those "events" where if nothing happens it'll be forgotten quickly...but if by chance it pans out in any way, there'll be those claiming big props for hyping it up a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 How is the pattern "unfavorable?" Yes, mid-level lapse rates look like crap, but there's pretty good kinematic support, fair MUCAPE and the overall upper-air pattem coincides with some climo derecho events. I'm not calling for one by any means, but I do think there's legit MCS potential from the Great Lakes into the middle Appalachians, if not the mid-Atlantic coastal plain as well. Getting hyped up about this in SNE is worse than getting excited over a Day 7 SPC outlook. Favorable for MCS activity sure but not for significant severe or widespread severe. The 500mb pattern looks fantastic but 700/850 are absolutely awful. We would need to see a highly potent s/w energy amplify as it approaches to enhance things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Wtf is the point of a derecho post? How often have we seen them in the past 20 years? I think climo is like 1 every 3-4 years but that's more NY/PA into western SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 This is one of those "events" where if nothing happens it'll be forgotten quickly...but if by chance it pans out in any way, there'll be those claiming big props for hyping it up a week out.Like the week earlier this summer when all we would hear is "derecho," but no "derecho" ever happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 This is equivalent to having a thread for a d13 blizzard and expecting it to be taken seriously because DT postulates on a blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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