IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 From met ORH Wx man in NE forum "Absolutely dumpage incoming. There are going to be some totals that are probably twice what model guidance says. That is often the case in our rain events where we have sufficient mid-level inflow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Radar looks impressive to the south but it looks like after we get into the really heavy stuff it then just stops with some showers trailing after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Kind of a moot point at this time but the 06z GFS had 4.17" of rain and KEWR vs the 06z NAM showing 3.00". Can not remember the last time that the GFS had higher QPF forcasts than the NAM for the same run and the same location. I'm thinking the heaviest totals set up over N NJ like they usually do in these setups. The low looks to crawl along or just off the coast, placing the max. convergence and uplift there. Probably 4-5" totals along I-287. More like 2-4" elsewhere. The rain on the north/east side looks impressive as well and should nail everyone through the afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 As per OKX,s AFD, they are going with the NAM. Up this way at KSWF, the 00Z NAM had 2.40 and the 06z bumped up to 3.79 of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 This looks like a three parter with each part heavier than the previous one until the core moves through late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 I'm thinking the heaviest totals set up over N NJ like they usually do in these setups. The low looks to crawl along or just off the coast, placing the max. convergence and uplift there. Probably 4-5" totals along I-287. More like 2-4" elsewhere. The rain on the north/east side looks impressive as well and should nail everyone through the afternoon/evening. Yeah agreed, the problem is that all of the greatest flooding interests for that area fall between the Hudson River and I-287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised to hear some max totals exceed 6" when all is said and done, these tropical entities combined with baroclinic forces can wring out more moisture than even guidance is putting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 Well the 12z NAM didn't knock down totals, in fact this looks like a bit of an increase in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 The NAM is also wet for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 The 12z NAM has some elevated instability spreading north tonight: So there could be some t-storms with heavy rains this rain this. Especially over Central/Eastern LI : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 This shows how dry patterns can turn on a dime. These will be the first back to back 5 inch or more months for many locations since Aug-Oct 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 You can see the last piece that the NAM has rotating through in the morning down in the Carolinas. We're still a very long way away from clearing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 12z GFS is 2-3" of rain through the next 24 hours with moderate to heavy rain still falling at that hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 12z GFS is 2-3" of rain through the next 24 hours with moderate to heavy rain still falling at that hour That's the 6 hour precip. Its actually done before 7am tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 The 12z NAM has some elevated instability spreading north tonight: So there could be some t-storms with heavy rains this rain this. Especially over Central/Eastern LI : We could see some very impressive hourly rainfall rates when the core moves through tonight. Like you said, there will be elevated convection that combines with near record PW's for early June. The models are printing out 2.21" vs the record of 2.27". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 HRRR also showing a convective band coming in with the core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 1.25" so far for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Over an inch already, should easily get over 3" with plenty of heavy rain incoming later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 We could see some very impressive hourly rainfall rates when the core moves through tonight. Like you said, there will be elevated convection that combines with near record PW's for early June. The models are printing out 2.21" vs the record of 2.27". JFK.gif There should be some very impressive yet showery type rains along and east of the track that can generate 0.5"-1" very quickly. Like you said, the moisture content is certainly there. There might even be some that train along one area for a while, which would ratchet it up fast. If you look south of us, that is occurring in some places now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 there's no way most locations in the metro area escape with under 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 If you have any doubts for later today, just check out the radar out of Dover Air Force Base. BWI-DCA area eastward getting hammered right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 If you have any doubts for later today, just check out the radar out of Dover Air Force Base. BWI-DCA area eastward getting hammered right now. The rain area east of the center is more pronounced and longer lived than models seem to have shown or is typical with tropical storms heading to our latitude. We're all in for a soaking through at least the evening. Then we will have to see where the rain area currently over central NC ends up, and what showers and storms can fire east of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 If you have any doubts for later today, just check out the radar out of Dover Air Force Base. BWI-DCA area eastward getting hammered right now. And it looks like it's holding is course. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 If you have any doubts for later today, just check out the radar out of Dover Air Force Base. BWI-DCA area eastward getting hammered right now. Lol And that's only wave 2 - Wave 3 is even heavier HRRR: I would not be surprised to see some of those cell in that line rotating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 There should be some very impressive yet showery type rains along and east of the track that can generate 0.5"-1" very quickly. Like you said, the moisture content is certainly there. There might even be some that train along one area for a while, which would ratchet it up fast. If you look south of us, that is occurring in some places now. The amount of deep moisture available is really impressive. The forecast tonight of around 2.20" is very near the climo maximum. You could see the rising moisture content on the 12z sounding. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/include/pw.php?sid=OKX&rt=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 So far it's been fairly steady but nothing too bad, 1.3" in Old Bridge. If these current rates stayed the same, then we would do just fine although the Raritan river is already beginning to respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Looks like the really heavy stuff could be here in the next hour or so So far it's been fairly steady but nothing too bad, 1.3" in Old Bridge. If these current rates stayed the same, then we would do just fine although the Raritan river is already beginning to respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Only 0.81" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Over 1" per hour rates now showing up around SNJ and moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 The precip south of DC is just exploding on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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