TWCCraig Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 The NAM is too far west IMO. Which is why I said it's at least the NAM. Stick with the global models which has the system passing just south of LI giving the coast the heaviest rains. A further west solution like the NAM will also raise the wind threat for coastal locations as Upton has also stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 The 18z NAM shows the core of the heavy rain passing over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 The 12z GGEM agrees with the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 5pm update now has 65 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 It's pouring here already, doesn't bode well for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Apocalyptic flooding. 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Apocalyptic flooding. 4km NAM ScreenHunter_52 Jun. 06 16.59.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 The 4km is finally shifting east toward the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 Our record flood occurred two years ago with Irene. It shattered the previous record from 1984 by 2.5' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Apocalyptic flooding. 4km NAM Omg, wow....would there still be a severe threat on the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Apocalyptic flooding. 4km NAM ScreenHunter_52 Jun. 06 16.59.png Why is there such a big difference between Stormvista's 4km NAM and the e-wall's 4km NAM? The e-wall outputs seem more reasonable than 10" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 Why is there such a big difference between Stormvista's 4km NAM and the e-wall's 4km NAM? The e-wall outputs seem more reasonable than 10" of rain. E-Wall graphics are lower resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 Well....the 18z GFS is going to look like the 18z NAM now. Less totals due to the lower resolution, but you can see the core of the rain passing right over us. That's a 1.5"+ in 3 hours bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Well....the 18z GFS is going to look like the 18z NAM now. Less totals due to the lower resolution, but you can see the core of the rain passing right over us. That's a 1.5"+ in 3 hours bullseye Thats a 6 hr prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 GFS totals, in line with the rest of the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 Thats a 6 hr prog. It is? It's in 3 hour increments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 It is? It's in 3 hour increments? The time is 3 hr increments, the precip is still previous 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 It would not surprise me if a few places approach 8" of rain in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Wow GFS caves/converges with the NAM Surprising. Against other guidance. UKMET and Euro are east of the city with heaviest precip, NAM, GGEM and GFS west. I go with Ukie/Euro combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Surprising. Against other guidance. UKMET and Euro are east of the city with heaviest precip, NAM, GGEM and GFS west. I go with Ukie/Euro combo. I would as well, but it does seem the western track is gaining traction. (Needs to be monitored) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Looks like the center came onshore a few minutes ago in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 RGEM places max from LI to CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 RGEM places max from LI to CT. PR_000-048_0000.gif 3-4" of rain for NE NJ/NYC/SWCT. Then 4-6" of rain for ECT/LI and Trenton, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 3-4" of rain. That purple shade over LI/CT is 4"-5" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 That purple shade over LI/CT is 4"-5" of rain. More like 4-6" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopOfNJ Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Trying to look from my phone but hard to see the map output... Can anyone tell me what the weather looks like in EWR @ 11 eastern? Hoping to get on the ground in between the rain tonight and Andrea's remnants tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 00z GFS through the middle of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 Latest 7 day totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 Kind of a moot point at this time but the 06z GFS had 4.17" of rain and KEWR vs the 06z NAM showing 3.00". Can not remember the last time that the GFS had higher QPF forcasts than the NAM for the same run and the same location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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