doncat Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 A long way to go of course but with many stations already having monthly means in the low 80's and another heat wave looming we could be in record territory for warmest month when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 A long way to go of course but with many stations already having monthly means in the low 80's and another heat wave looming we could be in record territory for warmest month when all is said and done. counting today NYC has 20 days in a row without temperatures in the 60's...If we don't get one tomorrow or Sunday the record will be smashed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 counting today NYC has 20 days in a row without temperatures in the 60's...If we don't get one tomorrow or Sunday the record will be smashed... The record will be broken. NYC Urban heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 The record will be broken. NYC Urban heating. We've gone over this before, but NYC has been a heat island with similar development characteristics since the 1960s. Fundamentally, the architecture of the City hasn't changed much in 50 years. The most logical explanation for the increased nighttime lows is higher SSTs due to climate change as well as generally increased humidity in a wetter climate, making it harder to cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Tonight and very early tomorrow morning will come very close to getting into the 60s. Euro has us getting into the 60s overnight under heavier rain bands.The drier 6z NAM has the city getting to 70.5. I think it all comes down to if it rains hard enough in the very early morning hours between 2am and 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I think we have big heat potential, later next week. The downslope flow and compression on top of the 594dm ridge, should lead to more dry adiabatic heating during daylight hours. Giving typical hotspots like EWR and LGA a shot at reaching 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Agree Tony that we have heat wave potential July 4th-8th. West atlantic ridge retrogrades and heights builds to 588dm. However, I think we'll begin to see more cool air intrusion by the 12th-15th period / mid July as the MJO propagates eastward. My analogs for July are 1959, 1961, and still liking 2001. I see enough cooling to know us back to near normal for July but we'll see. For August, the same analogs continue to show a torchy look for the Northeast, and I also still like the idea of August featuring the biggest heat of the summer relative to normal. My July analogs vs. this July so far reveal a pretty similar temp anomaly regime over the SE US, Mid-west, and West. The clear miss has been in our area, the Northeast. There was a warm pocket over NE New England, but the west atlantic ridge has been stronger than I thought for the Northeast. Very mild overnight temps have kept departures high thus far. Moving forward, my initial idea of timing the hottest part of summer was during August, but now I think that will occur over the next 5-8 days, and August could potentially be the coolest month relative to normal. The mean trough does look to try to return to the Northeast for the July 20th-30th period. Both the ECMWF and GFS are beginning to hint at this. However, we would obviously need significant cool shots to bring the monthly anomalies down near average for July. CFS v2 has more frequent cooling from the July 20th-August 15th period, and I'm becoming convinced that the second half of summer will be cooler than the first half, with August potentially featuring near or slightly below normal temps. I originally thought that period would come in July, but the strength of the west atlantic ridge has kept the coolest temperatures to our West. My thinking right now is the following: July 15th-19th: Hottest period of the summer to occur with potentially the only shot of extreme heat we'll see (95-100F) July 20th-30th: Increased frequency of s/w troughs amplifying into the Northeast with more back and forth August 1st-15th: Mean trough axis temporarily shifts from the Mid-west into the Northeast with a retrograding western ridge, and the West Atl Ridge further east Late August into early-mid September: West Atlantic Ridge retrogrades westward again, with a weak trough over the OH Valley, potentially setting up a very warm/humid month of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Heart of the summer to feature some strong heat (perhaps hottest of the summer). Latest guidance continues with peristent warm/above normal pattern the next week to 10 days. Western Atlantic Ridge will expand west by Sunday (7/14) pumping heights into the east ( 592 - 596 DM) and pushing trough into the south. The WAR eventually hooks with the rockies ridge by tue (7/16) setting up westerly flow and a period of potential major heat through the end of next week (7/19). The ridge relaxes by the weekend of the 20th but suspect any cooling gets us back near normal. Longer range suggests heights rebuild with more heat on/around 7/24 perhaps drier pattern emerging. Analogs 2006 taking the lead over 2003. 2006 and 2001 featured strongest heat of their summers the end of july and early August - we'll see if that analog trend holds true. Highlights: 7/12 - 7/13 : Front nearby with storms/clouds and temps closer to normal 7/14 - 7/15 : WAR expands west building heights and high humidity and widespread heat (90s) returns 7/16 - 7/19 : Potential for strong heat mid/upper 90s 7/20 - 7/23: cold front and trough temps back near normal 7/24 : Ridge rebuilds with potential for more heat 2006 was pretty hot for the USA as a whole in July, and we're going to end up quite a bit cooler than it for the SE US, Mid-west areas. If you're correct, then we're looking at a pretty hot summer overall for the JJA period. We differ a bit on how the rest of the summer plays out, but you've done better than me in the Northeast so far this month. The West Atlantic ridge has been really dominating the pattern for us over the last 3 weeks or so. My thoughts are we'll see a relative break from it July 20-Aug 15 but you might be right. Either way, next week looks to torch for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 My July analogs vs. this July so far reveal a pretty similar temp anomaly regime over the SE US, Mid-west, and West. The clear miss has been in our area, the Northeast. There was a warm pocket over NE New England, but the west atlantic ridge has been stronger than I thought for the Northeast. Very mild overnight temps have kept departures high thus far. Moving forward, my initial idea of timing the hottest part of summer was during August, but now I think that will occur over the next 5-8 days, and August could potentially be the coolest month relative to normal. The mean trough does look to try to return to the Northeast for the July 20th-30th period. Both the ECMWF and GFS are beginning to hint at this. However, we would obviously need significant cool shots to bring the monthly anomalies down near average for July. CFS v2 has more frequent cooling from the July 20th-August 15th period, and I'm becoming convinced that the second half of summer will be cooler than the first half, with August potentially featuring near or slightly below normal temps. I originally thought that period would come in July, but the strength of the west atlantic ridge has kept the coolest temperatures to our West. My thinking right now is the following: July 15th-19th: Hottest period of the summer to occur with potentially the only shot of extreme heat we'll see (95-100F) July 20th-30th: Increased frequency of s/w troughs amplifying into the Northeast with more back and forth August 1st-15th: Mean trough axis temporarily shifts from the Mid-west into the Northeast with a retrograding western ridge, and the West Atl Ridge further east Late August into early-mid September: West Atlantic Ridge retrogrades westward again, with a weak trough over the OH Valley, potentially setting up a very warm/humid month of September. Late August-Mid September: Tropical threat(s)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Late August-Mid September: Tropical threat(s)? Don't want to get too far ahead, but yes, that general regime could be conducive to indirect or direct tropical threats for the FL-SE US coastline. We'll have to see if the pattern we've experienced continues into early autumn, but my guess is that it will in fact persist. The signaling is rather weak at this point w/ a neutral ENSO and fairly stable NAO-AO pattern, and patterns tend to be much more stagnant in the mid to late summer. So I would err on the side of "greater risk than usual" for tropical cyclone activity near the East Coast again this year. Keep in mind we're also in the decadal cycle for it w/ the warm west Atlantic, similar to the mid/later 1950s. Of course there's no guarantee the Northeast will see any activity; it could be confined to the SE US w/ more remnant rains for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 We've gone over this before, but NYC has been a heat island with similar development characteristics since the 1960s. Fundamentally, the architecture of the City hasn't changed much in 50 years. The most logical explanation for the increased nighttime lows is higher SSTs due to climate change as well as generally increased humidity in a wetter climate, making it harder to cool down. I strongly disagree. A lot has changed over 50 years. 50 years ago the urban footprint was limited to Manhattan, part of Brooklyn, part of the Bronx and a very small part of Queens. Now, effectively, all of the area from White Plains south to the Battery and east to about the Nassau-Suffolk line is urban. Suffolk, northern Westchester and all of Rockland County are suburban as opposed to rural farmland. In 1963, 50 years ago, Interstane 287 was a gleaming, relatively empty 60 MPH speed limit road. Ditto the parts of the Long Island Expressway that were completed. Now both are traffic-choked, reflecting the local urbanization. This has nothing at all to do with global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I strongly disagree. A lot has changed over 50 years. 50 years ago the urban footprint was limited to Manhattan, part of Brooklyn, part of the Bronx and a very small part of Queens. Now, effectively, all of the area from White Plains south to the Battery and east to about the Nassau-Suffolk line is urban. Suffolk, northern Westchester and all of Rockland County are suburban as opposed to rural farmland. In 1963, 50 years ago, Interstane 287 was a gleaming, relatively empty 60 MPH speed limit road. Ditto the parts of the Long Island Expressway that were completed. Now both are traffic-choked, reflecting the local urbanization. This has nothing at all to do with global warming. The rate of rise in temperatures is the same at more rural locations not impacted by UHI so it has to be something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I strongly disagree. A lot has changed over 50 years. 50 years ago the urban footprint was limited to Manhattan, part of Brooklyn, part of the Bronx and a very small part of Queens. Now, effectively, all of the area from White Plains south to the Battery and east to about the Nassau-Suffolk line is urban. Suffolk, northern Westchester and all of Rockland County are suburban as opposed to rural farmland. In 1963, 50 years ago, Interstane 287 was a gleaming, relatively empty 60 MPH speed limit road. Ditto the parts of the Long Island Expressway that were completed. Now both are traffic-choked, reflecting the local urbanization. This has nothing at all to do with global warming. LOL. You do realize rural areas have also experienced drastic temp increases? Explain that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Look at how well the Atlantic SSTA has been mirroring temps so far this July. Warm NW Atl = Warm Northeast US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 The rate of rise in temperatures is the same at more rural locations not impacted by UHI so it has to be something else. LOL. You do realize rural areas have also experienced drastic temp increases? Explain that. Rural, but how far out from city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I strongly disagree. A lot has changed over 50 years. 50 years ago the urban footprint was limited to Manhattan, part of Brooklyn, part of the Bronx and a very small part of Queens. Now, effectively, all of the area from White Plains south to the Battery and east to about the Nassau-Suffolk line is urban. Suffolk, northern Westchester and all of Rockland County are suburban as opposed to rural farmland. In 1963, 50 years ago, Interstane 287 was a gleaming, relatively empty 60 MPH speed limit road. Ditto the parts of the Long Island Expressway that were completed. Now both are traffic-choked, reflecting the local urbanization. This has nothing at all to do with global warming. We are talking about temperatures at KNYC/Central Park, however. I agree there might be some small effect from the urbanization of the areas surrounding Central Park, such as northerly winds passing over more inhabited areas of Westchester instead of farmland and forests, but the effect has to be small because the geography of Manhattan itself has not changed much. I definitely agree that places like Queens and Westchester have more UHI than in the 1960s, but that's not going to affect Central Park temperatures that much. Sure, the City has expanded in reach, but its core has remained relatively similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 We are talking about temperatures at KNYC/Central Park, however. I agree there might be some small effect from the urbanization of the areas surrounding Central Park, such as northerly winds passing over more inhabited areas of Westchester instead of farmland and forests, but the effect has to be small because the geography of Manhattan itself has not changed much. I definitely agree that places like Queens and Westchester have more UHI than in the 1960s, but that's not going to affect Central Park temperatures that much. Sure, the City has expanded in reach, but its core has remained relatively similar. I think water temps have warmed due to the UHI, thus causing more wide spread warmth. This would also supports the higher mins we have become accustomed too - Think about it, only the end of the Hudson and east rivers were directly warmed due to the UHI in the 1960 Now you have Newark bay, Raritan Bay, Jamaica Bay, Long island sound, and northern parts of the Hudson all much warmer do to the expanded UHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 temp in Central Park fell to 69 in the rain this evening...the next record to watch is the highest minimum for July...the record is 66 set in 2008... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 LGA officially below 70 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Since 1970 the city had changed little with regards to development outside the core of the 5 boroughs. The website historic aerials confirms this. Long island is about the same today as it was by the end of the 1970s,and in fact most parts haven't changed since the first part of that decade. That's a solid 40+ years of a stable urban environment. Let's not forget that temps have been rising in places in the middle of nowhere as well that haven't changed at all. Just look at the anomaly maps. It's not littered with small circles of positive anomalies amongst a backdrop of normal temps; it's widespread warmth encompassing all kinds of landcsapes: urban and rural. So don't tell me UHI explains the rise in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 temp in Central Park fell to 69 in the rain this evening...the next record to watch is the highest minimum for July...the record is 66 set in 2008... Central Park min last night was 67. So that's still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 I strongly doubt the 66F record will make it either w/ strong Canadian cool shots arriving the last 10 days of the month IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 I strongly doubt the 66F record will make it either w/ strong Canadian cool shots arriving the last 10 days of the month IMO. We'll see. In the long term, the models have shown deeper troughs. But as we get closer, the ridging is more aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Since 1970 the city had changed little with regards to development outside the core of the 5 boroughs. The website historic aerials confirms this. Long island is about the same today as it was by the end of the 1970s,and in fact most parts haven't changed since the first part of that decade. That's a solid 40+ years of a stable urban environment. Let's not forget that temps have been rising in places in the middle of nowhere as well that haven't changed at all. Just look at the anomaly maps. It's not littered with small circles of positive anomalies amongst a backdrop of normal temps; it's widespread warmth encompassing all kinds of landcsapes: urban and rural. So don't tell me UHI explains the rise in temps. Do you think 10 million + ACs running at night help? The higher temps seem to have followed the expansion of the AC starting in the 70 - 80s.Also even though nyc area is simillar , the build up has been to the west in NJ. Which acts like a buffer for our normal wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Do you think 10 million + ACs running at night help? The higher temps seem to have followed the expansion of the AC starting in the 70 - 80s. Also even though nyc area is simillar , the build up has been to the west in NJ. Which acts like a buffer for our normal wind direction. Are you saying excess heat from ACs is contributing to increased temps? No my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 Midsummer look ahead. Hottest part of the summer featuring furnace like temps with potential for 100s by the end of the week. Western Atlantic Ridge slowly relaxes and allows cold front later on Saturday (7/20) with trough moving through the region. Behind the front, a break in the heat/humidity as temps will fall back near normal starting Sunday and continue for a few days through early next week (7/23). Warmer and more humid flow will return on/around next wed as trough slowly back towards the Lakes as heights slowly rise in the east. Heat (90+) will be more hit or miss but overall above normal will continue. The latest guidance is hinting that some of the blowtotch heat that has been mainly confined to the west will push east towards the plains and southeast later in the period. There are also hints that the next WAR expansion west towards the end of the month (7/28). And we could see a link with the Western ridge, similar to this week with a much hotter pattern possible. 2001, 2006 analogs still leading the pack with overall above to at times much above normal regime.... Highlights: 7/17 - 7/20 : Heat temps could approach upper 90s/100 7/20 - 7/23 : Cold front ridge relaxes. temps near normal 7/24 - 7/27 : warmer more humid temps above normal , scattered 90+ readings 7/27 - WAR rebuilds west, heat from west spills east into Plains.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 the more I look at 1981 as an analog the more I like it for the Summer...It wasn't the hottest summer on record but it did have the 13th hottest seven day period of all time in NYC...from July 12th-18th the ave max min ave max temp...94.1 76.7 85.4...96...The average min of 76.7 is the fifth highest for a seven day period... we are getting warm minimums now and it should continue to get them as long as the jet stream is well north of our area... it looks like the hottest seven days will be the 14th-20th this year...I'd hate to think a hotter week is down the road but who knows??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 it looks like the hottest seven days will be the 14th-20th this year...I'd hate to think a hotter week is down the road but who knows??? wow, good call on that analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 wow, good call on that analog I get lucky sometimes...This heat wave could end up hotter than 1981...it could end up averging over 86.0...here's the list I compiled... Hottest seven day period... high low mean max .. 98.0 76.9 87.4 102 7/07-7/13 1993 98.4 76.3 87.4 104 7/15-7/21 1977 98.3 76.0 87.1 102 8/29-9/04 1953 95.1 78.9 87.0 .98. 8/05-8/11 1896 95.7 77.9 86.8 104 7/18-7/24 2011 95.3 78.0 86.7 .99. 8/09-8/15 1988 94.9 77.4 86.1 .98. 7/14-7/20 2013 est... 96.6 75.1 85.9 102 8/11-8/17 1944 96.1 75.2 85.7 100 8/01-8/07 1955 95.3 75.9 85.6 103 8/04-8/10 2001 94.9 76.1 85.5 102 7/16-7/22 1980 97.3 73.6 85.4 102 7/17-7/23 1991 95.7 75.1 85.4 .98. 8/28-9/03 1973 94.1 76.7 85.4 .96. 7/12-7/18 1981 94.3 76.4 85.4 103 7/04-7/10 2010 95.4 75.1 85.3 100 7/17-7/23 1955 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 ECMWF weeklies are coolish for the next several weeks FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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