NJwinter23 Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Best threat of the summer, needless to say...should be some good MCS action on the periphery by late this week to our north. Hopefully everything times out well for Saturday around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 I wouldn't be shocked to see some storms fire in north jersey in the pocs and drop south towards the region. Some of the short range models show this occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 I wouldn't be shocked to see some storms fire in north jersey in the pocs and drop south towards the region. Some of the short range models show this occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Still highlighted in the extended day 4+ Shear should be decent, I just have concerns about a few things. - mid level lapse rates. I believe they're modeled to be mehh AOA 6-6.5* too far out to really see exactly - storms out running the best forcing as they approach the coastal plain. Seems to be a constant problem this year - the river - capping. Haven't checked sounding forecasts today, but in pretty sure there is a warm Nose somewhere above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Shear should be decent, I just have concerns about a few things. - mid level lapse rates. I believe they're modeled to be mehh AOA 6-6.5* too far out to really see exactly - storms out running the best forcing as they approach the coastal plain. Seems to be a constant problem this year - the river - capping. Haven't checked sounding forecasts today, but in pretty sure there is a warm Nose somewhere above. Shear is debatable. Looking at the just the GFS, some runs drop the belt of westerlies farther south (35 kts at 500 mb at Philly) while others do not (keeping us at more like 25 knots). Given that there's essentially no turning, that right there is the difference between adequate and inadequate deep-layer shear. MLLR actually look better than they do for most events around here. Sure, I've seen steeper on the Plains, but for our area, 6.5 C/km is not bad. The river has no effect on severe weather. Not capped. 700 mb temps of ~10 C above 850 mb temps of ~18-20 C certainly does not suggest it, and it does not show up in any modeled soundings. (Aside: A quick calculation shows that if we use 10C and 20C, that produces a LR of ~6.1 C/km in that layer, which happens to be the part of the column with the weakest LR, as judged by the PHL sounding at 18z Sat.) Bigger worry, imo, is timing of the front itself. It looks to get hung up over the Great Lakes Saturday morning, so we may need to hope for something pre-frontal. But let's see about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 - storms out running the best forcing as they approach the coastal plain. Seems to be a constant problem this year The amount on instability may end up compensating for that as one goes south and east. Plus a pre-frontal trough may help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 The river has no effect on severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Shear is debatable. Looking at the just the GFS, some runs drop the belt of westerlies farther south (35 kts at 500 mb at Philly) while others do not (keeping us at more like 25 knots). Given that there's essentially no turning, that right there is the difference between adequate and inadequate deep-layer shear. MLLR actually look better than they do for most events around here. Sure, I've seen steeper on the Plains, but for our area, 6.5 C/km is not bad. The river has no effect on severe weather. Not capped. 700 mb temps of ~10 C above 850 mb temps of ~18-20 C certainly does not suggest it, and it does not show up in any modeled soundings. (Aside: A quick calculation shows that if we use 10C and 20C, that produces a LR of ~6.1 C/km in that layer, which happens to be the part of the column with the weakest LR, as judged by the PHL sounding at 18z Sat.) Bigger worry, imo, is timing of the front itself. It looks to get hung up over the Great Lakes Saturday morning, so we may need to hope for something pre-frontal. But let's see about that. I really wasnt serious about the river lol. C'mon now!! Otherwise, great points. Might have have to worth about other convective debris rounding the ridge the previous day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I really wasnt serious about the river lol. C'mon now!! Otherwise, great points. Might have have to worth about other convective debris rounding the ridge the previous day. I wasn't sure, but I'm glad you weren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I really wasnt serious about the river lol. C'mon now!! I think you were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 I'm down in Sussex County, DE visiting my Mom-- near Oak Oarchard. Still huge ponds of water from that rain last week-- in places that NEVER have standing water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 So much for a Day 7 Risk Seems that, like always, timing of the FROPA sucks, and SPC isn't biting on any pre-frontal activity. Look at the epic collapse on 0z NAM sim radar that happens between 18z and 0z on Saturday as the storms cross the mountains and outrun the front. On to the next FROPA I guess. (Next Friday holds some potential...maybe.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Cap starting to break. Should get some convention today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 The 1730 Day 2 is essentially the same: (This will auto-refresh at 6z to the next day's Day 2.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 If the NAM is to be believed, it might be time to issue a rare summertime Weenie Suicide Watch. 4 km NAM is a bit more generous, as are the NMM and SPC WRF (all based off their 12z runs) but none of the three look particularly impressive either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 some pea size hail here with the storms...good amt of ning and hvy rain here in gilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 some pea size hail here with the storms...good amt of ning and hvy rain here in gilly Could see the lightning from my place. Some really nice ctg and really bright. Just barely missed the southern edge of the rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 No rain but some lightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 boom goes the dynamite tonight? 12z hi res nam looks like it could get interesting around 9-10pm. We're outside of slight risk, but it looks like a nice line drops through the area from the GL region. I will have my popcorn ready, watching for derenchnados... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABE SnowObserver Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 A few pics from Coca-Cola Park in East Allentown Friday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Great pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Great pics! Agreed! I especially like the first one with the people running for cover or whatever. It captures the emotion of the moment as well as the lightning strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY...CT...RI...MA...SRN VT...SRN NH...SRN ME CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 201736Z - 201830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME. A FEW OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...PARTICULARLY WITH THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING IS MAXIMIZING WITHIN THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR...FROM WASHINGTON D.C. AND BALTIMORE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PHILADELPHIA...NEW YORK AND BOSTON...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE 90S. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT NEAR 2 INCHES...WHICH INCLUDES SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPEARS WEAK...BUT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION. A MORE PROMINENT FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN INITIAL CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND WEST...NOW EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT...INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...AS IT CONTINUES A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...SHEAR BENEATH 30-40+ KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR THE MOST PROMINENT THREAT IN MOST AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Kind of surprised we're not even in a 5% Hail. I know deep-layer shear is lacking (only ~30 kts 0-6 km north, less closer to the city) and that because of that we won't have sustained hailers, but with such big CAPEs you'd think even pulse storms could briefly be hailers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Kind of surprised we're not even in a 5% Hail. I know deep-layer shear is lacking (only ~30 kts 0-6 km north, less closer to the city) and that because of that we won't have sustained hailers, but with such big CAPEs you'd think even pulse storms could briefly be hailers. Check out. West of Hazelton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Talk about a whole lot of nothing. SPC bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott W Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Soooo....not that I have nothing better to do in this stifling heat, as long as I don't have to break a sweat I might as well be watching for these forecasted storms. Thought we'd be seeing more activity up to the north and west by now. Cold front is bisecting PA east to west, with cooler temps from State College north and west. Guess I better find something else to do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Although there's little on the radar, there's frequent ctg lightning to the wsw of me in northeast Middletown DE. Promises to be good. Actually it turned out to be not such a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott W Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Ok here we go - storms firing up from SNJ west to Hagerstown. And a severe warned cell moving through South Philly. Here in West Chester we heard quite a bit of thunder from this one as it spun up. Congrats, Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Some of the best lightning I've seen around here ever. Rivals a Nebraska MCS. Literally dozens of IC and CC bolts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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