phlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 EC ENS qpf is .75 along the river, more south and less north. .5 runs HPN to LNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro is also the outlier at the moment... however I agree with the cautious optimism approach. Three models show three different things. All of them are outliers to each other to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 EC ENS qpf is .75 along the river, more south and less north. .5 runs HPN to LNS matches the op pretty close maybe a little north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Latest Wxsim with 18z have the snow starting in NW Chesco by 3am Wed morning getting moderate by 9am and heavy by noon. Snow should continue at varying rates till after midnight with between 9" to 11" of wet snow above 600ft in the NW Philly burbs.....subject to change ....but with me leaving for Phils Spring Training on an early AM flight on Wednesday it may happen. My wife will be manning the measuring duties and I will have the webcam up and running to monitor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Latest Wxsim with 18z have the snow starting in NW Chesco by 3am Wed morning getting moderate by 9am and heavy by noon. Snow should continue at varying rates till after midnight with between 9" to 11" of wet snow above 600ft in the NW Philly burbs.....subject to change ....but with me leaving for Phils Spring Training on an early AM flight on Wednesday it may happen. My wife will be manning the measuring duties and I will have the webcam up and running to monitor thanks for info. enjoy your trip. I just got home from the rockies and now trying to figure all this madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I should also say the bl issues are real in my eyes. If we don't get the heavy rates during the day all that precip will probably be wasted in non accum snow or rain...the real deal may be later on in the aft into night when the ccb starts to crank if that does occur. Excellent write up. Thanks tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 EURO disagrees because it only gives Philly long duration light/mod precip, if we we get heavy precip like NAM it would snow IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I should also say the bl issues are real in my eyes. If we don't get the heavy rates during the day all that precip will probably be wasted in non accum snow or rain...the real deal may be later on in the aft into night when the ccb starts to crank if that does occur. we've seen that happen a few times already this year, 33/34 & cold rain... at face value, it seems "more" likely now if for no other reason than that we are on the wrong side of met winter...it would be great to get a multi-inch blast after sundown, but this winter will likely go out like the warm beer fart it's been all year in marlton/mt. laurel/tonyland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Latest Wxsim with 18z have the snow starting in NW Chesco by 3am Wed morning getting moderate by 9am and heavy by noon. Snow should continue at varying rates till after midnight with between 9" to 11" of wet snow above 600ft in the NW Philly burbs.....subject to change ....but with me leaving for Phils Spring Training on an early AM flight on Wednesday it may happen. My wife will be manning the measuring duties and I will have the webcam up and running to monitor Paul, considering your experience with the success/failure of Weathersim to verify, what are your thoughts on its current forecast? Have fun at spring training! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Quick post here; I'll try to get back a little later... The ECMWF is slower than the GFS with the arrival of the 500mb low. But it isn't just that, it is also very slow as it wraps up, occludes and becomes vertically stacked. The aggregate here in deceleration allows the upstream northern s/w to become more of an influence. This added momentum + the blocking nudges this south off the Mid Atlantic Coast before resuming a NE motion. IF this is incorrect (it is likely overboard and the GFS is likely not enough), it is quite possible the comma head associated with the seaward ECMWF will adjust, once again, NW tonight. These subtle little changes in speed will make a huge difference in comma head placement. The process of vertically stacking is not something we see a whole lot near the VA/NC border, interacting with the warm Gulf Stream etc. It is very possible the models are not properly indicating the banding potential in our area. Any small timing differences in the V.S. process, mid-level low's arrival and next incoming northern stream s/w will make a huge difference for a tiny area. See y'all later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Quick post here; I'll try to get back a little later... The ECMWF is slower than the GFS with the arrival of the 500mb low. But it isn't just that, it is also very slow as it wraps up, occludes and becomes vertically stacked. The aggregate here in deceleration allows the upstream northern s/w to become more of an influence. This added momentum + the blocking nudges this south off the Mid Atlantic Coast before resuming a NE motion. IF this is incorrect (it is likely overboard and the GFS is likely not enough), it is quite possible the comma head associated with the seaward ECMWF will adjust, once again, NW tonight. These subtle little changes in speed will make a huge difference in comma head placement. The process of vertically stacking is not something we see a whole lot near the VA/NC border, interacting with the warm Gulf Stream etc. It is very possible the models are not properly indicating the banding potential in our area. Any small timing differences in the V.S. process, mid-level low's arrival and next incoming northern stream s/w will make a huge difference for a tiny area. See y'all later awesome analysis HM, thanks for sharing this. What is your take on the gefs? I know they are starting to get maybe out of there usefulness. Do you believe the means accum qpf or could it be a fact of the lower resolution not picking up on the cycling you were talking about earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 awesome analysis HM, thanks for sharing this. What is your take on the gefs? I know they are starting to get maybe out of there usefulness. Do you believe the means accum qpf or could it be a fact of the lower resolution not picking up on the cycling you were talking about earlier? So if this were to happen, Baltimore and southward would get screwed and PHL north would get in the jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So if this were to happen, Baltimore and southward would get screwed and PHL north would get in the jackpot? no, other way around. If the cycling like the 18z gfs would happen then screw zone would be in the phl cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 no, other way around. If the cycling like the 18z gfs would happen then screw zone would be in the phl cwa. So if the 00z suite shows the storm another 59 miles north we will make out badly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well considering if I wouldn't have shoveled all the inches it forecasted 3 days out we would probably be at 50" instead of the 20+ inches to date. If it still has it by tomorrow evening then I would begin to believe.....temps and sun angle will not be a problem out here but how much precip....should be interesting and maybe one more to follow around St Patrick's day just to round things off... Paul, considering your experience with the success/failure of Weathersim to verify, what are your thoughts on its current forecast?Have fun at spring training! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 and just after HM"s excellent input, the SREFS are in a wetter. previous run had the 1" line on the DE river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 fwiw, which may not be much but the 21z srefs gets 1.75 to phl and almost 2 to ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Quick post here; I'll try to get back a little later... The ECMWF is slower than the GFS with the arrival of the 500mb low. But it isn't just that, it is also very slow as it wraps up, occludes and becomes vertically stacked. The aggregate here in deceleration allows the upstream northern s/w to become more of an influence. This added momentum + the blocking nudges this south off the Mid Atlantic Coast before resuming a NE motion. IF this is incorrect (it is likely overboard and the GFS is likely not enough), it is quite possible the comma head associated with the seaward ECMWF will adjust, once again, NW tonight. These subtle little changes in speed will make a huge difference in comma head placement. The process of vertically stacking is not something we see a whole lot near the VA/NC border, interacting with the warm Gulf Stream etc. It is very possible the models are not properly indicating the banding potential in our area. Any small timing differences in the V.S. process, mid-level low's arrival and next incoming northern stream s/w will make a huge difference for a tiny area. See y'all later Thank you for sharing, HM. Love reading your work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 fwiw, which may not be much but the 21z srefs gets 1.75 to phl and almost 2 to ttn so why don't i see those amounts on the map irishbri74 just posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 fwiw, which may not be much but the 21z srefs gets 1.75 to phl and almost 2 to ttn SREFs have nice backlash wed night into thur. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 so why don't i see those amounts on the map irishbri74 just posted? his is a 12 or 24hr timestamp, mine is the accumulated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 and just after HM"s excellent input, the SREFS are in a wetter. previous run had the 1" line on the DE river. Look further north IMO fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro is also the outlier at the moment... Unless you count the GGEM and UKMET... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Very nice and informative write up HM! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Quick post here; I'll try to get back a little later... The ECMWF is slower than the GFS with the arrival of the 500mb low. But it isn't just that, it is also very slow as it wraps up, occludes and becomes vertically stacked. The aggregate here in deceleration allows the upstream northern s/w to become more of an influence. This added momentum + the blocking nudges this south off the Mid Atlantic Coast before resuming a NE motion. IF this is incorrect (it is likely overboard and the GFS is likely not enough), it is quite possible the comma head associated with the seaward ECMWF will adjust, once again, NW tonight. These subtle little changes in speed will make a huge difference in comma head placement. The process of vertically stacking is not something we see a whole lot near the VA/NC border, interacting with the warm Gulf Stream etc. It is very possible the models are not properly indicating the banding potential in our area. Any small timing differences in the V.S. process, mid-level low's arrival and next incoming northern stream s/w will make a huge difference for a tiny area. See y'all later Love this post. This is what this forum is all about and why HM is elite...This is a fantastic example of highly qualified Met not just reading the models and posting the data that you and I can read but rather examing, comparing, extrapolating the data given him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 got ya..thanks tom..Nice (fwiw)!! his is a 12 or 24hr timestamp, mine is the accumulated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What does the mean for PHL, ILG, ACY look like if the three highest and three lowest QPF members are cast out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM looks very similar thru 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM looks very similar thru 48 More qpf in eastern pa. Poconos and LV easily at 1" through 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still snowing thur AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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