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Feb 27th Observation Thread


dryslot

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Dunno if it will last, but great dendrites here now.

I guess even the normally trusty Euro isn't perfect. Just goes to show how difficult weather forecasting can be.

 

Absolute paint peeling peltfest right now with the heavier echoes. A few flakes mixed in now, but they aren't your typical snow/sleet parachutes kind of flakes. They're more the soft snow flurries type with unmelted flakes at slow fall velocity. I wonder if there's actually some snow growth occurring in the low levels beneath the inversion...

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wow at the radar north of syracuse ny they are getting pounded

 

A lot of that is probably sleet per the dual pol.

 

the flakes are massive here

 

Interesting. The midlevels must be a little colder to my SE. Could be some downslope warming downwind of the Berkshires on the easterly flow that is jinxing me. The dual pol is showing an area of lower correlation coefficients along the west slope of the Berks, indicative of sleet.

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Latest RAP continues to advance the 850 0C line northwestward until about 10z and then it comes back SE through 15z before going back NW...but the BL torches. Worst case scenario...no snow while its cold enough in the lower levels to snow....and then rain.

 

Pretty sickening run. Its warm right up into S NH. Basically this has been acomplete sh**show by the models...and unfrotunately the most skillful one which will have to live this one down.

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If it's snow. Oswego had rain before. Now they have flipped to snow but 34.

Snowing good here and 28.4. We got an inch in the last 45 minutes.

 

I was wondering what it was doing out your way as the radar echoes appear more smooth. Dual pol also has higher correlation coefficients to my west as well. Good luck.

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Surely its snowing on the East Slope.  It always snows at Pete's house. ;)

A lot of that is probably sleet per the dual pol.

 

 

Interesting. The midlevels must be a little colder to my SE. Could be some downslope warming downwind of the Berkshires on the easterly flow that is jinxing me. The dual pol is showing an area of lower correlation coefficients along the west slope of the Berks, indicative of sleet.

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Much more snow mixing in now. Mostly snow with a little sleet and visibility dropping a bit. Midlevels may be cooling off some due to dynamic and evaporational cooling processes.

 

As usual when there's winter weather unfolding I can't really sleep.

 

 

Thats a good sign for me on the east slope of the ORH hills....mostly sleet here right now with a few mangled flakes mixed in, but the heavy echoes are still just W of here.

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If we can flip to snow and stay there through about 10-11z....then this event can be salvaged looking at radar...but not sure how possible that is. Its ugly right now...but Mitch's obs offers hope since E slopes here should actually cool more efficiently than him and so far BL is not an issue.

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ALB just went to mod snow and 1/2 vis.

 

It always gets me when ALB has SN and has a warmer surface temperature than I do and I'm sleeting. It's all in the midlevels for me right now as there's definitely a warm tongue aloft over the west slope. This happened in the 12/26 event as well.

 

If we can flip to snow and stay there through about 10-11z....then this event can be salvaged looking at radar...but not sure how possible that is. Its ugly right now...but Mitch's obs offers hope since E slopes here should actually cool more efficiently than him and so far BL is not an issue.

 

I'm still a sleet, snow mix, but you can definitely tell that the snow is being generated in the low levels beneath the sleet as the flakes are small and unmelted. These aren't partially melted, clumped together aggregates. This is good news for east slope areas looking to cash in on the LLJ and orographic uplift.

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It always gets me when ALB has SN and has a warmer surface temperature than I do and I'm sleeting. It's all in the midlevels for me right now as there's definitely a warm tongue aloft over the west slope. This happened in the 12/26 event as well.

 

 

I'm still a sleet, snow mix, but you can definitely tell that the snow is being generated in the low levels beneath the sleet as the flakes are small and unmelted. These aren't partially melted, clumped together aggregates. This is good news for east slope areas looking to cash in on the LLJ and orographic uplift.

 

 

 

I'm pretty pessimistic here, but we usually do very well when it comes to the MLs on easterly flow on the east slope of ORH hills....but I'm stlll worried this is too fleeting and not something that might last 4-6 hours..I'm guessing I get a 2-3 hour period of decent snow and then torch in the low levels. Unfortunate because as recently as 6 hours ago it looked like it could be way better than that here.

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I'm surprised that Westfield and areas in the valley are snowing while it's rain/sleet in the hills east of there. 

 

 

All about lift right now...they ar eprob in a better area of ML lift...whereas to the east its still low level lift. I'm sure you will see some flakes once lift becomes deeper...well maybe not sure, but perhaps. I will see some flakes too I'm sure, but then i torch,

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All about lift right now...they ar eprob in a better area of ML lift...whereas to the east its still low level lift. I'm sure you will see some flakes once lift becomes deeper...well maybe not sure, but perhaps. I will see some flakes too I'm sure, but then i torch,

 

Looks like there's a band of heavy precip getting ready to move through here... not sure if it'll be mostly sleet again though.

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