ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I wonder if we could flip to snow when that heavier band over the Hartford area moves through... Yes you might...but the snow should be short lived. But if you do, that is a decent sign anyway....certainly not bad. But the fact that you don't even have magled flakes or pellets right now is a bad sign..and proof that the Euro was too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Yes you might...but the snow should be short lived. But if you do, that is a decent sign anyway....certainly not bad. But the fact that you don't even have magled flakes or pellets right now is a bad sign..and proof that the Euro was too cold. Brad Field says it's been all snow at his house in West Granby, CT. (he's at 880 ft) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Some big bright banding about to hit Tolland...redsoxdude should hopefully see some flakes start overtaking the rain in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Brad Field says it's been all snow at his house in West Granby, CT. (he's at 880 ft) You posted this just before my post above....you should see snow then pretty soon with this heavy band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 you should see snow then pretty soon with this heavy band. Hopefully... sleet is mixing in now, no flakes yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The time to rip if there is a chance to salvage some decent accums is between now and 09z or maybe 10-11z....that latter time is pushing it though based on current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 At least they're washing out some marching north. Not that it isn't anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Freezing rain, sleet mix here and things getting pretty icy. Midlevels must be absolutely torched. No flakeage whatsoever. 31.1° F. Damn. Massive Euro fail in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Freezing rain, sleet mix here and things getting pretty icy. Midlevels must be absolutely torched. No flakeage whatsoever. 31.1° F. Damn. Massive Euro fail in progress. Yeah this might be the worst Euro forecast inside of 24h we will see in quite some time in a winter event....awesome that it picked a marginal event like this to completely vomit all over itself. I don't think I've seen it bust this bad (should it eventually complete its bust) thisclose in a winter event since back in 2006 during the Feb 11-12 snowstorm....back when it was obviously not as skilled as 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Heavy sleet here now with a couple flakes starting to mix in... 32 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The RAP is warm for us. The NAM is too cold, maybe a bust here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 As expected, the Euro caved....it now torches the BL by 12z tomorrow...it still has the MLs cold enough, but it had ORH at freezing tomorrow at 12z, and now its like 36F. Pretty embarrassing for the best piece of guidance this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 As expected, the Euro caved....it now torches the BL by 12z tomorrow...it still has the MLs cold enough, but it had ORH at freezing tomorrow at 12z, and now its like 36F. Pretty embarrassing for the best piece of guidance this close in. So, does ORH get anything this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 So, does ORH get anything this run? It looks like a couple inches...hard to infer since i dont have soundings. Just the immediate maps out now. Regardless, awful job by the Euro....its 2m temps warmed literally 5F in one run for a forecast 24h out....in a winter storm where solar insolation is not a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 an ice storm would be better, is that a wildcard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It looks like a couple inches...hard to infer since i dont have soundings. Just the immediate maps out now. Regardless, awful job by the Euro....its 2m temps warmed literally 5F in one run for a forecast 24h out....in a winter storm where solar insolation is not a factor. The NAM-GFS etc are all too cold 24h out. For Mtl it's at least 2-3°C almost everytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Pretty embarrassing for the best piece of guidance this close in. I guess even the best screws up sometimes... I wish we had better US models that could be taken more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 an ice storm would be better, is that a wildcard? Other than maybe 3-5 hours of marginal icing at high terrain, it won't be a big factor. There is no dewpoint feed...too much easterly component, so any ice will self destruct inside of 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Still mostly sleet here... could Kevin be getting snow up at 1000 ft while i'm getting a mixed bag at 700 ft? Temp has been pretty steady at 32-33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The wind seems more southerly than easterly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Still mostly sleet here... could Kevin be getting snow up at 1000 ft while i'm getting a mixed bag at 700 ft? Temp has been pretty steady at 32-33 degrees. If you are getting sleet, then elevation wont play a huge part. There's a pesky warm layer near 850 trying to dynamically cool right now near you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 snowing and sleeting here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Yeah this might be the worst Euro forecast inside of 24h we will see in quite some time in a winter event....awesome that it picked a marginal event like this to completely vomit all over itself. I don't think I've seen it bust this bad (should it eventually complete its bust) thisclose in a winter event since back in 2006 during the Feb 11-12 snowstorm....back when it was obviously not as skilled as 2013. I guess even the normally trusty Euro isn't perfect. Just goes to show how difficult weather forecasting can be. Absolute paint peeling peltfest right now with the heavier echoes. A few flakes mixed in now, but they aren't your typical snow/sleet parachutes kind of flakes. They're more the soft snow flurries type with unmelted flakes at slow fall velocity. I wonder if there's actually some snow growth occurring in the low levels beneath the inversion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I guess even the normally trusty Euro isn't perfect. Just goes to show how difficult weather forecasting can be. Absolute paint peeling peltfest right now with the heavier echoes. A few flakes mixed in now, but they aren't your typical snow/sleet parachutes kind of flakes. They're more the soft snow flurries type with unmelted flakes at slow fall velocity. I wonder if there's actually some snow growth occurring in the low levels beneath the inversion... Yeah this was disappointment for the Euro....I thought it was onto something since it had been locked in like the blizzard in showing this. It clearly wasn't. The lift right now it probably fairly putrid and low level....so if the low levels are still cold enough, you probably have some weak snow growth in addition to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 wow at the radar north of syracuse ny they are getting pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 If you are getting sleet, then elevation wont play a huge part. There's a pesky warm layer near 850 trying to dynamically cool right now near you. Things are actually starting to lighten up a bit and we're back to mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 the flakes are massive here Yeah this was disappointment for the Euro....I thought it was onto something since it had been locked in like the blizzard in showing this. It clearly wasn't. The lift right now it probably fairly putrid and low level....so if the low levels are still cold enough, you probably have some weak snow growth in addition to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 the flakes are massive here Maybe in this event you will be the new Mt. Tolland where everyone else aorund you gets nothing and you pick up 4" of paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 If it's snow. Oswego had rain before. Now they have flipped to snow but 34. Snowing good here and 28.4. We got an inch in the last 45 minutes. wow at the radar north of syracuse ny they are getting pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Seems like W MA/NW CT temps have fallen a degree or so since midnight, Norfolk CT Otis Windsor MA..above 1300'. still some cooling to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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