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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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To be clear, I'm not talking a completely frozen event for N IL. Not happening...which we're in agreement. I think a cocktail is possible, that's all.

Completely frozen looks like a decent possibility for the northern 1/3 to 1/2 of the LOT CWA based on 12z data. Warm layer centered at 850 on Bufkit soundings for ORD only gets to +0.8 on GFS and 0.5 on NAM. When it's that close to 0 a mix of sleet and snow is more likely and heavier rates and wet bulbing might be able to support all snow at times. Still time to change to a warmer look, but as I see it right now, no way this looks like a mainly rain event.

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:yikes:

 

Interesting that the 32 surface line is cutting through NE IL, but 850 temps go below zero. And there's that part where it bulls eyes Chicago at 60 hours (0.25"+) with the before mentioned thermals. Verbatim, Geos is probably making snow angels. Of course it all depends on how quickly 850 temps cool...

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At least the rain will be a little warmer for LAF this go around, versus the last event a couple of weeks ago. Score.

There's been some suggestion now that we end with flakes or a mix rather than start off. 12z GFS is showing it and it looks like the 12z Euro might be hinting at it but hard to feel too confident in these scenarios where the cold air is trying to play catch up. Not a big deal anyway.

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Interesting that the 32 surface line is cutting through NE IL, but 850 temps go below zero. And there's that part where it bulls eyes Chicago at 60 hours (0.25"+) with the before mentioned thermals. Verbatim, Geos is probably making snow angels. Of course it all depends on how quickly 850 temps cool...

 

 

It's about time an event with this qualifier isn't a total dud

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There's been some suggestion now that we end with flakes or a mix rather than start off. 12z GFS is showing it and it looks like the 12z Euro might be hinting at it but hard to feel too confident in these scenarios where the cold air is trying to play catch up. Not a big deal anyway.

 

Yeah I see it. But can't count on it. Interesting system though, how it's evolved on the guidance.

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It's about time an event with this qualifier isn't a total dud

 

This is verbatim, via the 12z Euro in six hour increments...the 0C 850 line is just west of Chicago at 48 hours (curls NW to just north of DBQ), cuts right through the heart at 54 hours, and comfortably south at 60 hours. So take that FWIW...of course, we'll hope for the best.

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This is verbatim, via the 12z Euro in six hour increments...the 0C 850 line is just west of Chicago at 48 hours (curls NW to just north of DBQ), cuts right through the heart at 54 hours, and comfortably south at 60 hours. So take that FWIW...of course, we'll hope for the best.

 

 

Thanks for the heads up.  Early hi-res weenie GIF

 

wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif

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pretty close at DPA

 

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.1     0.7    1018      86      97    0.04     554     541   
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.7     0.4    1015      93      99    0.18     553     541   
FRI 00Z 08-FEB   0.1    -2.8    1014      97      96    0.41     547     536   
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -1.8    -4.8    1018      88      65    0.05     542     528   

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Interesting that the 32 surface line is cutting through NE IL, but 850 temps go below zero. And there's that part where it bulls eyes Chicago at 60 hours (0.25"+) with the before mentioned thermals. Verbatim, Geos is probably making snow angels. Of course it all depends on how quickly 850 temps cool...

 

Lol. Sounds like a good idea!

 

Column looks to stay below freezing up this way on the GFS at least. Skilling saying mostly snow in the northern 1/3 of Chicagoland with a little ice for good measure. Some area changing to rain further south.

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DTW
 
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -3.4    -0.2    1015      80      83    0.00     551     539    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -3.2    -2.4    1012      91     100    0.21     545     536    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -4.3    -6.8    1016      84      92    0.15     538     526
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Amazing this is only 48 hours out.  The Euro gives MKE 0.80"QPF just about all snow.  The GEM gives them 0.4-0.6"QPF all snow, the UKMET I'm not sure, the GFS 0.5" or so mostly snow, and some of the GFS Ensembles look Euro-like with the juicyness.  ORD would be similar, but more borderline on these models, though the GEM dumps 0.6-0.8" QPF all snow for them.

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Amazing this is only 48 hours out.  The Euro gives MKE 0.80"QPF just about all snow.  The GEM gives them 0.4-0.6"QPF all snow, the UKMET I'm not sure, the GFS 0.5" or so mostly snow, and some of the GFS Ensembles look Euro-like with the juicyness.  ORD would be similar, but more borderline on these models, though the GEM dumps 0.6-0.8" QPF all snow for them.

 

The EURO snowfall maps are more bullish looking. Looks like at least 5" here. Do you have any idea how much moisture falls here?

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