RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 To be clear, I'm not talking a completely frozen event for N IL. Not happening...which we're in agreement. I think a cocktail is possible, that's all. Completely frozen looks like a decent possibility for the northern 1/3 to 1/2 of the LOT CWA based on 12z data. Warm layer centered at 850 on Bufkit soundings for ORD only gets to +0.8 on GFS and 0.5 on NAM. When it's that close to 0 a mix of sleet and snow is more likely and heavier rates and wet bulbing might be able to support all snow at times. Still time to change to a warmer look, but as I see it right now, no way this looks like a mainly rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Hmm to the 12z Euro. Looks good for southern WI...looks interesting for N IL. I'll say, looks long duration as well, really hope these models are sniffing this threat correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Hmm to the 12z Euro. Looks good for southern WI...looks interesting for N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 SE MI looks like it would do good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Interesting that the 32 surface line is cutting through NE IL, but 850 temps go below zero. And there's that part where it bulls eyes Chicago at 60 hours (0.25"+) with the before mentioned thermals. Verbatim, Geos is probably making snow angels. Of course it all depends on how quickly 850 temps cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Oh yeah, and SNE is demolished. Killed really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 At least the rain will be a little warmer for LAF this go around, versus the last event a couple of weeks ago. Score. There's been some suggestion now that we end with flakes or a mix rather than start off. 12z GFS is showing it and it looks like the 12z Euro might be hinting at it but hard to feel too confident in these scenarios where the cold air is trying to play catch up. Not a big deal anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Finally something interesting to track. While another southward shift would be great, I would gladly miss out on this one for the Toronto folks. It looks like a quick hitter too, much of the snow falls in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Interesting that the 32 surface line is cutting through NE IL, but 850 temps go below zero. And there's that part where it bulls eyes Chicago at 60 hours (0.25"+) with the before mentioned thermals. Verbatim, Geos is probably making snow angels. Of course it all depends on how quickly 850 temps cool... It's about time an event with this qualifier isn't a total dud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 There's been some suggestion now that we end with flakes or a mix rather than start off. 12z GFS is showing it and it looks like the 12z Euro might be hinting at it but hard to feel too confident in these scenarios where the cold air is trying to play catch up. Not a big deal anyway. Yeah I see it. But can't count on it. Interesting system though, how it's evolved on the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It's about time an event with this qualifier isn't a total dud This is verbatim, via the 12z Euro in six hour increments...the 0C 850 line is just west of Chicago at 48 hours (curls NW to just north of DBQ), cuts right through the heart at 54 hours, and comfortably south at 60 hours. So take that FWIW...of course, we'll hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This is verbatim, via the 12z Euro in six hour increments...the 0C 850 line is just west of Chicago at 48 hours (curls NW to just north of DBQ), cuts right through the heart at 54 hours, and comfortably south at 60 hours. So take that FWIW...of course, we'll hope for the best. Thanks for the heads up. Early hi-res weenie GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 pretty close at DPA THU 12Z 07-FEB -0.1 0.7 1018 86 97 0.04 554 541 THU 18Z 07-FEB 0.7 0.4 1015 93 99 0.18 553 541 FRI 00Z 08-FEB 0.1 -2.8 1014 97 96 0.41 547 536 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -1.8 -4.8 1018 88 65 0.05 542 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Boston gets like an easy 24"+, lol. Pretty awesome run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Boston gets like 24"+, lol. Pretty awesome. they're having a brutal winter...not a bad way to end it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Interesting that the 32 surface line is cutting through NE IL, but 850 temps go below zero. And there's that part where it bulls eyes Chicago at 60 hours (0.25"+) with the before mentioned thermals. Verbatim, Geos is probably making snow angels. Of course it all depends on how quickly 850 temps cool... Lol. Sounds like a good idea! Column looks to stay below freezing up this way on the GFS at least. Skilling saying mostly snow in the northern 1/3 of Chicagoland with a little ice for good measure. Some area changing to rain further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 they're having a brutal winter...not a bad way to end it all They could pull ahead by a wide margin. Season to date BOS: 9.4" ORD: 8.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 They could pull ahead by a wide margin. Season to date BOS: 9.4" ORD: 8.7" How much QPF for YYZ on the EURO Tim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 They could pull ahead by a wide margin. Season to date BOS: 9.4" ORD: 8.7" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 How much QPF for YYZ on the EURO Tim? Around 0.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Around 0.75". Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DTW FRI 00Z 08-FEB -3.4 -0.2 1015 80 83 0.00 551 539 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -3.2 -2.4 1012 91 100 0.21 545 536 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -4.3 -6.8 1016 84 92 0.15 538 526 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Thanks Looks like it actually beefed us up slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Looks like it actually beefed us up slightly. Across the board. Good run for quite a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 When's the last time the GTA had a snowfall warning issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 When's the last time the GTA had a snowfall warning issued? Had to have been that fail event last February(?) where it mostly just rained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Amazing this is only 48 hours out. The Euro gives MKE 0.80"QPF just about all snow. The GEM gives them 0.4-0.6"QPF all snow, the UKMET I'm not sure, the GFS 0.5" or so mostly snow, and some of the GFS Ensembles look Euro-like with the juicyness. ORD would be similar, but more borderline on these models, though the GEM dumps 0.6-0.8" QPF all snow for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Amazing this is only 48 hours out. The Euro gives MKE 0.80"QPF just about all snow. The GEM gives them 0.4-0.6"QPF all snow, the UKMET I'm not sure, the GFS 0.5" or so mostly snow, and some of the GFS Ensembles look Euro-like with the juicyness. ORD would be similar, but more borderline on these models, though the GEM dumps 0.6-0.8" QPF all snow for them. The EURO snowfall maps are more bullish looking. Looks like at least 5" here. Do you have any idea how much moisture falls here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Wow...interesting. Is this all snow for S. Ontario?? If so, looking like 10-20cm for Hamilton-Toronto. Didn't see this coming. I assumed winter was done, like many other folks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 The EURO snowfall maps are more bullish looking. Looks like at least 5" here. Do you have any idea how much moisture falls here? Very similar, you have a good 0.25"+QPF period along with most of SE Wisconsin/NE Illinois from 12-18z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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