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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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Wouldn't be so sure about all rain for N IL. WAA is not screaming in from the south/southwest.

 

 

All rain...no.  Mostly.

 

Riding the GFS which has been the best of a lousy bunch lately but this kind of map never leads to good things.  Front end teaser flakes south of I90...1-3" of cement to the WI border. Take it to the bank.

 

Bonus IMBY final call: .7"

 

gfs_namer_039_850_temp_ht.gif

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All rain...no.  Mostly.

 

Riding the GFS which has been the best of a lousy bunch lately but this kind of map never leads to good things.  Front end teaser flakes south of I90...1-3" of cement to the WI border. Take it to the bank.

 

Bonus IMBY final call: .7"

 

Ok, cool...but the map you posted is 12 hours before anything falls. We roll ahead and 850 temps cool, when precip enters the picture. All I'm saying is that it's not an all/mostly rain event for N IL...as presented right now.   

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Ok, cool...but the map you posted is 12 hours before anything falls. We roll ahead and 850 temps cool, when precip enters the picture. All I'm saying is that it's not an all/mostly rain event for N IL...as presented right now.   

Agree...although by the slimmest of margins. 

 

Plus, Lake Michigan is at its lowest water temp all season, so that won't hurt.

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Ok, cool...but the map you posted is 12 hours before anything falls. We roll ahead and 850 temps cool, when precip enters the picture. All I'm saying is that it's not an all/mostly rain event for N IL...as presented right now.   

 

 

I understand and I'm not interpreting the run verbatim.  When I see a rather aggressive sw flow at 850 like that, it will likely be underdone and it's hard to buy them cooling as advertised on that run with such a weak 850 low passing nearby.  We'll see but this doesn't look like favorable setup to me.  Geos might manage a couple inches.

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I understand and I'm not interpreting the run verbatim.  When I see a rather aggressive sw flow at 850 like that, it will likely be underdone and it's hard to buy them cooling as advertised on that run with such a weak 850 low passing nearby.  We'll see but this doesn't look like favorable setup to me.  Geos might manage a couple inches.

 

To be clear, I'm not talking a completely frozen event for N IL. Not happening...which we're in agreement. I think a cocktail is possible, that's all. 

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All rain...no.  Mostly.

 

Riding the GFS which has been the best of a lousy bunch lately but this kind of map never leads to good things.  Front end teaser flakes south of I90...1-3" of cement to the WI border. Take it to the bank.

 

Bonus IMBY final call: .7"

You're gonna bust high, like usual. Sloppy mix.

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