Climate Change Banter

[The_Global_Warmer]

On top of that they don't even realize UAH for Jan/Feb would be the 3rd warmest year on record and the nino spike hasn't even happened.

 

 

 

 

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/03/18/global-temperature-report-february-2015/

[AvantHiatus]

[LakeEffectKing]

T+228....I'll go out on a limb and say that verification of that time, will be colder that that prog...

[AvantHiatus]

T+228....I'll go out on a limb and say that verification of that time, will be colder that that prog...

It's been on there for some time now, the setup begins pre-truncation with enhanced blocking over Eastern Siberia.

 

Probably a decent chance of some form of this scenario happening. Could go either way, colder or warmer...even tho the latter would be insane and emotionally disagreeable.

 

The GFS is not known to have a warm bias, and looking back +240 has been running colder than verified over the conus.

[AvantHiatus]

[AvantHiatus]

http://csas.ei.columbia.edu/2015/03/31/global-warming-hole/

 

 

 

Global Warming Hole 31 March 2015 James Hansen

Sorry to have disappeared for two months. I was working on a paper. More on it later.

For now I only want to let people living in the eastern two-thirds of North America know that global warming is really happening. In fact, 2015 should be the year that stifles discussion of a warming hiatus. A substantial developing El Nino will add to the global warming trend, and should make 2015 easily the warmest year in the instrumental record.

However, you don’t live on the global average. Global maps of temperature anomalies (Fig. 1) let you see how anomalous the temperature was at any place in January and February this year, and the annual anomaly for 2014. East of the Rockies was remarkably cold in February, and 2014 as a whole had a similar temperature anomaly pattern.

We wondered about possible relation of temperature patterns with the “global warming hole” in the North Atlantic south of Greenland, noted in the scientific literature by Drijfhout et al. (2012). Rahmstorf et al. (2015) note that this warming hole, at least on longer time scales, is probably related to a slowdown in ocean heat transport. In climate simulations with increasing meltwater from Greenland we have noted a cooling in that area and a tendency for atmospheric blocking there, which provides another hypothesis to account for a fixed location of Arctic cold air outbreaks. More about that later.

You can take consolation in realizing that it really was as cold as it seemed. Unless you are more than 80 years old, February was the coldest February of your life in New York City (Fig. 2a). In fact, it was the 2^nd coldest month in the past 80 years, only January 1977 being colder.

Fig. 2( is to remind you that local temperature anomalies dwarf global anomalies. So why do we care about global anomalies that are much smaller than local natural variability? A lot of reasons, but our next paper will, I think, make that story clearer.

Wait a minute! Does this large local “noise” mean that we have a good chance for a cooler than average summer? Eh, not so much. First, summers are much less noisy than winters – for good reasons, such as the much weaker equator to pole temperature gradient in the summer. Think of the “bell curve” for summer temperature anomalies (Hansen et al. 2012) – the summer bell curve has shifted far to the right. Waggles in the jet stream – largely unforced, i.e., natural variability – that affect regional climate are important in the summer, as well as in other seasons, but chances of having a summer warmer than it was several decades ago are high. And thus so too are the extreme events embedded within a hotter than normal summer.

[nzucker]

It's been on there for some time now, the setup begins pre-truncation with enhanced blocking over Eastern Siberia.

Probably a decent chance of some form of this scenario happening. Could go either way, colder or warmer...even tho the latter would be insane and emotionally disagreeable.

The GFS is not known to have a warm bias, and looking back +240 has been running colder than verified over the conus.

Good pattern for lowering global temperatures.

[AvantHiatus]

Good pattern for lowering global temperatures.

Yeah, that's what I thought when looking at the 7-day CFS forecast today. Shades of 2012, which was a cool year globally due to the prolific Arctic exchange. It looks like North America will not go back into the freezer this time, especially south of Canada.

[forkyfork]

SoC has been getting into variations of the same argument with people in the global temp thread for years. How do you guys put up with him?

[AvantHiatus]

Geo-engineering has begun..

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Geo-engineering has begun..

#iceage2015

[nflwxman]

Earth has elongated it's orbit by several hundred thousand miles.  It's all good.

[blizzard1024]

Here is another process that has bugged me and I feel is poorly understood and basically "swept" under the rug.

If  a strong CO2-H20 feedback exists, then what stops it from spiraling out of control.

 

So here is the "approved"  IPCC climate change viewpoint- 

Orbital parameter changes start to warm the Earth at high latitudes in the NH by melting ice sheets. This leads to out-gassing of CO2 from the warmer oceans which then warms the planet a little. This in turn then leads to an increase in water vapor which amplifies the original warming. However, the extra H20 is leading to warming too, correct? So then more water vapor should be released from this additional warming and so on and so forth. This leads to a runaway effect which we know does not occur. However, in reality, when the water vapor gets to a point, it forms more clouds which precipitate which is a SINK of the most important greenhouse gas- H20. Our climate models are very poor at tropical convection, clouds and precip processes which is a huge driver in transferring heat and moisture and precipitation.

 

If you look at ice core data there is an almost 1 to 1 relationship between CO2 and inferred temperature. This is a smoking gun that CO2 is NOT the control knob of our climate, counter to what folks think. It is almost a linear relationship and in my 25+ years study of atmospheric science the atmosphere is very NON-LINEAR. The T vs CO2 variations are related to ocean out gassing. There is NO way that CO2 drives climate. It likely has a small effect but the feedbacks and relative stability of climate system over the millennium is a testament that our climate is stable until large ice sheets grow and melt and affect the ocean currents which are the biggest player in our climate system's fluctuations. This is common sense.  This whole "science" is rapidly turning into "climastrology" and it sucks because we need good research in climate. We need to be able to predict seasons with accuracy. They need to cut WAY back on studying global warming 50 to 100 years from now and divert at least 3/4 of the money to improving seasonal forecasting. That would benefit society tremendously. So far it has been a terrible waste of taxpayer dollars!

[AvantHiatus]

Lolwut? What does that even mean? If anything, colder air "fills voids" at the surface, left by rising warmer air.

The entirety of posts are laughable.

[AvantHiatus]

They actually listed just one peer reviewed study, from the PNNL, and it's a theoretical extrapolation based on a few modeling scenarios: http://www.pnnl.gov/news/release.aspx?id=4186

Also, Joe Romm's first paragraph is flat out incorrect.

Here we go again....

[StudentOfClimatology]

I'm honestly starting to believe you're some hack from WUWT trying to make climate science look bad. You obviously don't know anything about climate science, geography, or basic thermodynamics. Hence your hilarious attempts to try and sound smart. At least try to make it less obvious.

[AvantHiatus]

Talking about yourself again? CM is more mid-atlantic'ish than Union NJ.

[AvantHiatus]

My generation is taking the fall so that we don't send the Earth into a massively overpopulated anthropogenic hell (wait, is it too late?).That includes you SOC, join the club man. We can wipe out the dinosaurs together with our combined strength.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Talking about yourself again?

I'm talking about you. Some of what you post here is so outlandish it'd make James Hansen laugh.

CM is more mid-atlantic'ish than Union NJ.

What's the point of this comment?

[AvantHiatus]

Denier board. I'm done posting here, not that most would care. They only want to reinforce their belief systems.

 

Don't knock on my door in 20 years, you were warned.

[SVT450R]

Denier board. I'm done posting here, not that most would care. They only want to reinforce their belief systems.

 

Don't knock on my door in 20 years, you were warned.

If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. 

[AvantHiatus]

If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. 

Nothing to do with that, I could care less anymore. I'll just pull the strings behind the scenes and you will be living in my world in 30 years. 

 

Posting here is just a waste of time, due to being swamped by the prolific circle-jerking that goes on here.

[Isotherm]

Nothing to do with that, I could care less anymore. I'll just pull the strings behind the scenes and you will be living in my world in 30 years. 

 

Posting here is just a waste of time, due to being swamped by the prolific circle-jerking that goes on here.

 

 

*Couldn't care less.

[SVT450R]

Nothing to do with that, I could care less anymore. I'll just pull the strings behind the scenes and you will be living in my world in 30 years. 

 

Posting here is just a waste of time, due to being swamped by the prolific circle-jerking that goes on here.

Call it what you want but when you continue to post statements that have no science backing and are complete hyperbole nonsense be prepared to be called out on it.  It's no different in the weather forums when the snow weenies are on a rampage and are eaten alive over things they post.  You haven't been around here very long so maybe you don't know how things run around here.

[nflwxman]

Perhaps keeping the super alarmist/CAGW stuff in a separate thread would go a long way in helping tame the issues.  I also have concerns about abrupt climate change, but the scientific evidence is thin (mostly because it's hard to gather evidence of such events on short time scales).  Weatherguy, I agree that AGW will become catastrophic in a lot of ways, but it may not be for 30+ years.   

 

That being said, the fact we are not moving to renewable fuels quicker as a globe is absurd.

[AvantHiatus]

Call it what you want but when you continue to post statements that have no science backing and are complete hyperbole nonsense be prepared to be called out on it.  It's no different in the weather forums when the snow weenies are on a rampage and are eaten alive over things they post.  You haven't been around here very long so maybe you don't know how things run around here.

Been on weather forums for about a decade, more consistently 5 years or so. In here, lurked for a year or two and decided I had a moral obligation to draw attention to some things since it would be impossible for me to raise these issues in other subforums without being banned.

 

I'm still learning like everyone else. We're about to slide into a record warm year, should be obvious that the potential for the big-time scenarios is still out there. The hiatus does not eliminate the threat.

 

In that case, we may need to plan exceedingly well to prevent huge fallout. Case in point, California.

 

 

Perhaps keeping the super alarmist/CAGW stuff in a separate thread would go a long way in helping tame the issues.  I also have concerns about abrupt climate change, but the scientific evidence is thin (mostly because it's hard to gather evidence of such events on short time scales).  Weatherguy, I agree that AGW will become catastrophic in a lot of ways, but it may not be for 30+ years.   

 

That being said, the fact we are not moving to renewable fuels quicker as a globe is absurd.

Also not sure if making a simple early call of SIE min being lower than last year is alarmist. Obviously since some are so bothered by it they think it might actually happen. They claim it's useless to make a call this early and accept that, based on past history but I still wanted to test my own skill for others to see. In the end, they may claim it was a blind guess but it is based on being in "uncharted territory'. 

 

The average extent of the Northern Hemisphere cold pool is the lowest on record. We have made some nice snowcover gains recently. We shall see how long this can hold out until the roof caves in.

[ORH_wxman]

Been on weather forums for about a decade, more consistently 5 years or so. In here, lurked for a year or two and decided I had a moral obligation to draw attention to some things since it would be impossible for me to raises these issues in other subforums without being banned.

 

I'm still learning like everyone else. We're about to slide into a record warm year, should be obvious that the potential for the big-time scenarios is still out there. The hiatus does not eliminate the threat.

 

In that case, we may need to plan exceedingly well to prevent huge fallout. Case in point, California.

 

Also not sure if making a simple early call of SIE min being lower than last year is alarmist. Obviously since some are so bothered by it they think it might actually happen. They claim it's useless to make a call this early and accept that, based on past history but I still wanted to test my own skill for others to see. In the end, they may claim it was a blind guess but it is based on being in "uncharted territory'. 

 

The average extent of the Northern Hemisphere cold pool is the lowest on record. We have made some nice snowcover gains recently. We shall see how long this can hold out until the roof caves in.

 

 

You can post your sea ice predictions in the sea ice thread...just expect them to be criticized if they have no real science behind them.

[AvantHiatus]

It's time to shut down the debate about wavy jets. Also, the departure from record years is greater for California. This is exactly what we expect from AGW, blunted record cold and scorching heat.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Please post the graph for New York if you have it. It's time to shut down the debate about wavy jets.

 

 

You seem to like the idea of squashing debate...not sure why.

 

 

New york's graph

 

[AvantHiatus]

Only for debates regarding AGW. FWIW... especially this one. I've been called out before as claiming BS and being an alarmist. You could look at the data and say it doesn't prove anything, only if you don't understand the EPO and how North American patterns operate.