MAG5035 Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Wow, Pit's goin big haha. Unfortunately their short term discussion doesn't lend any clues as to their reasoning. Most models i've seen look to be a widespread .2 to perhaps up to .3". So they must be thinking 20:1 ratios at least. NAM, GFS, and Euro have been swinging a single frame .10-.25 swath across the southern half of the state. My confidence is pretty high on this being an advisory snow for everyone for all of the west and central, with perhaps the far southeast and maybe the ny border seeing more of a 1-3 incher. Remember that this doesn't need to be much wetter to make for more significant totals, because this will be a high ratio snowfall that will pile up easily in temps that won't be out of the teens for alot of folks. These types of events do like to overachieve.So there are some aspects I do agree on with regards to Pit's forecast. I do think there could be scattered 5 or even 6 inch amounts and someone in the Laurels' (likely Seven Springs or someone similar) gets warning snowfall. I think any 4-6 swath would be more confined to a corridor within a lot of 3" totals. My thinking is a bit of a compromise between the offices I guess. 3-5" in the west and into the central counties (AOO, UNV, Bedford, Huntingdon, Lewistown).. and then 2-4" elsewhere. 4-8" up in the Laurels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Lewistown is a county now? Damn. I wonder how the Mifflin family feels about that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Lewistown is a county now? Damn. I wonder how the Mifflin family feels about that... Yea yea, lol. By actual central county names I'm talking Centre, Blair, Bedford, Fulton, Huntingdon, and Mifflin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Thinking that true central pa gets the advisory and upper and lower susq valley gets sps or hwo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 From the Philly subforum's mid-long range thread: NJwinter23, on 24 Jan 2013 - 17:02, said: Maybe someone more experienced can chime in on this, but ive never seen the ensembles do such a drastic change as early as day 4/5/6 like today's european ensembles did. I mean the op run started the drastic shift for the middle of next week obviously, but for the ensembles to jump on board hook line and sinker, it was pretty drastic for so early in the forecast period. anyhow, its a more muted warm up in the middle of next week and an over all colder look for the east. HM, on 24 Jan 2013 - 17:24, said: Thanks for bringing this to the forefront because I gave a pretty stern warning about poor modeling within the day 3-10 range (I think beyond 10 speaks for itself, haha). Times of poor NWP have to do with battling regimes, sudden changes in global AAM and stratospheric/solar disturbances. There is no denying the amazing shift in GLAAM with values approaching winters with strong El Nino conditions in place. The MJO signal is clearly getting muted on the RMMs by the h2 battle but it is clear that the MJO kicked its ass and is propagating east (just slower than what the consensus thought 2 weeks ago). The jet has extended and the remnant h2 westerly over the equatorial region got shifted toward the SH / S. America. There is also no denying a downwelling -u anomaly from the 10-30mb layer to the tropopause over the North Pole. This will reach the troposphere as we start February and it will likely lead to even more blocking than what's being modeled. There is a stronger than normal chance for a significant snowfall Feb 5-10 (yes I know climo says snow is most likely then). The storm being modeled beforehand is certainly possible; but with the PV displacement forecasted then, it is quite possible the "shunt" scenario is the best one. However, with the arrival of the STJ Feb 2-5, we certainly could get rolling in the snow department sooner than I have been saying. That sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 From the Philly subforum's mid-long range thread: NJwinter23, on 24 Jan 2013 - 17:02, said: HM, on 24 Jan 2013 - 17:24, said: That sounds good to me. Very interesting stuff there, I figured next week was going to be a battle to get a couple above average days around here... with a muted torch or "mild up" as i've seen the New England gang call it haha. There's also the prospect of a wintry mix as the warm air tries to press into PA. Too bad we'll probably still lose alot of whatever fluff pack we end up with tomorrow eve. Hopefully the MJO pulse moving thru 8 and 1 helps bring that big storm element via the southern branch we've largely been missing so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Looking at model trends if you are east of the mountains dont expect morw than an inch....esp with dry air to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 does the RUC forecast p-type or just qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 i don't see anything that has really changed. i would guess a general 1-3"/ 2-4" is in order. Nice and powdery. I think i may use my leaf blower for removal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Very interesting stuff there, I figured next week was going to be a battle to get a couple above average days around here... with a muted torch or "mild up" as i've seen the New England gang call it haha. There's also the prospect of a wintry mix as the warm air tries to press into PA. Too bad we'll probably still lose alot of whatever fluff pack we end up with tomorrow eve. Hopefully the MJO pulse moving thru 8 and 1 helps bring that big storm element via the southern branch we've largely been missing so far this winter. It's interesting, the GFS is a outright two-day torch and the Euro is one day. The thing that us non-pros should keep in mind also is the stuff about models - they are going to have fits the next few days. I'm seeing a fair amount of talk about the STJ finally showing up, HM went over that stuff in that post. It's going to be interesting to see if it plays out. i don't see anything that has really changed. i would guess a general 1-3"/ 2-4" is in order. Nice and powdery. I think i may use my leaf blower for removal Ever since they lost the Miller B the models have been very steady with this little system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Have a feeling our .10 has about the same odds of traversing the Allegheny mountains as the Donner party..lol. I can see the moisture cannabalizing itself all over Jamie, mag and psu bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 looking at current obs so far to our west... not seeing more than 1" reports yet in Illinois/Indiana... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think 1 to 2 will be max djr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 abc27 said expect 4". Out west they've been dealing with quite a bit drier air I believe, virga'ing them to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think 1 to 2 will be max djr My thoughts are 1-2 for areas east of the mountains and 2-4 in the higher elevation areas of AOO, JST, UNV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 NWS must feel same way not pulling trigger for advisories just a few hours from event. Edit: Nws saying 1 to 3 if that because of dry airmass in new afd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Well just looking at things it looks like the GFS is a little wetter than the nam showing .025 qpf. Nam is only showing about .015 in which the other day the Nam was the outlier of the models. SNOW 20:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 19:1| 0.3|| Ratio's is impressive!! The storm for Monday looks nasty - FZDZ Everyone thank you for your updates on the models...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Have a feeling our .10 has about the same odds of traversing the Allegheny mountains as the Donner party..lol. I can see the moisture cannabalizing itself all over Jamie, mag and psu bunch. My backyard is, after all, where lake effect often goes to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Well just looking at things it looks like the GFS is a little wetter than the nam showing .025 qpf. Nam is only showing about .015 in which the other day the Nam was the outlier of the models. SNOW 20:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 19:1| 0.3|| Ratio's is impressive!! The storm for Monday looks nasty - FZDZ Everyone thank you for your updates on the models...... Yes, it does look nasty. abc27 said expect 4". Out west they've been dealing with quite a bit drier air I believe, virga'ing them to death. OH's hourly report is pretty decent - if you run a radar loop, they actually didn't as much virga as I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Yes, it does look nasty. OH's hourly report is pretty decent - if you run a radar loop, they actually didn't as much virga as I was expecting. It's funny how this and the previous clipper didn't give into virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Columbus webcams look sweet: http://www.trafficland.com/city/MFD/camera/3649/ Dayton looks good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Yes, it does look nasty. OH's hourly report is pretty decent - if you run a radar loop, they actually didn't as much virga as I was expecting. Yes, Most of Central Ohio is now reporting Moderate Snow and Dayton is reporting Heavy Snow. It looks as the heaviest returns are moving southeast but some of that should make it into most of Pa. I do think most of the snow will be light when it gets here but I also think that some areas will get most of the snow in a quick 2 or 3 hour burst. jmho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It's funny how this and the previous clipper didn't give into virga. Is it WAA and the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Yes, Most of Central Ohio is now reporting Moderate Snow and Dayton is reporting Heavy Snow. It looks as the heaviest returns are moving southeast but some of that should make it into most of Pa. I do think most of the snow will be light when it gets here but I also think that some areas will get most of the snow in a quick 2 or 3 hour burst. jmho. Yeah, that often happens with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It's funny how this and the previous clipper didn't give into virga. watching this thing come east the dew points are not taking long to come up and the flakes reach the surface... will lose some but not anything significant to virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 FYI... Light Snow has started in the Pittsburgh Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dvdmgsr Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 State College schools just called early dismissal for "expected heavy snow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 State College schools just called early dismissal for "expected heavy snow." I know - I just got asked just "how much heavy show are we going to get" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 lol heavy virga,on the way ill b sure to chain up the impala. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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