TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You the RAP on your side still. Actually you might see more snow then I am if the NAM is correct. Unless I can get in on this LES band later. I can not believe how difficult it has been to get snow here. This low was looking like the end of our snowless streak, but now, all of a sudden it looks to be in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not cool. If another STUPID low coming from the south steals all the moisture AGAIN....and I am still seeing grass by the end of the weekend.......... Regardless of the storm you and most others in the snowbelt areas of W.MI should get in on some snow via LES after tomorrow as the flow FINALLY goes more westerly. May not be the biggest LES event but should whiten things up for most on this side of the lake who has been missed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Some solid totals. 0859 PM SNOW 2 W EVANSTON 42.05N 87.73W 12/27/2012 E4.5 INCH COOK IL BROADCAST MEDIA 0910 PM SNOW SKOKIE 42.04N 87.74W 12/27/2012 E4.5 INCH COOK IL PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 0z GFS a bit drier with the snow event from the 18z run but still nice. Why is there so much less in MI than WI? Is it because of the "lovely" southern wave coming up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I can not believe how difficult it has been to get snow here. This low was looking like the end of our snowless streak, but now, all of a sudden it looks to be in question. WAA snows are somewhat tricky to forecast. Amounts could come back on the 6z runs. That was quite a jump in the 0z runs so far. I'd pay attention to the radar and HR runs now. --- That didn't take long - Turtle! Dewpoints have crept up here. Looks like this band will curl up end the end and head north next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Why is there so much less in MI than WI? Is it because of the "lovely" southern wave coming up? What is more interesting is GRR being so aggressive when the models really do not show much in these parts with this system. GRR has already issued a WWA on top of it. Not sure what to think of any of it? Something is gonna bust.. Who/What that is remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 What is more interesting is GRR being so aggressive when the models really do not show much in these parts with this system. GRR has already issued a WWA on top of it. Not sure what to think of any of it? Something is gonna bust.. Who/What that is remains to be seen. Yeah, I wa excited to see the advisory and thought "the new NAM must be showing something good" and when I checked out the NAM I was confused to see it look like crap. I've been trying to figure out what GRR sees. (and "93" is usually conservative in forecasting). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1001 PM CST THU DEC 27 2012 DISCUSSION 955 PM CST A FESTERING HIGHLY LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN COOK COUNTY...HAVING PIVOTED FROM NE TO SW TO E TO W. SOME COMMUNITIES HAVE BEEN IN THE OVERLAP OF THIS SHIFT...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF EVANSTON...SKOKIE...MORTON GROVE...NORTHFIELD...AND WILMETTE. SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM PORTIONS OF THESE COMMUNITIES HAVE RANGED FROM TWO TO FIVE INCHES...WITH EVEN ONE PUBLIC REPORT TO A BROADCAST PARTNER OF SEVEN INCHES WHICH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED...ALTHOUGH HAVE HAD NO VERIFICATION THUS FAR. BASED ON REASONING BELOW...WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH AN SPS INSTEAD OF AN ADVISORY. THIS PERSISTENT BAND HAS BEEN SETTING UP WEST AND THEN NORTH OF THE MOST CONVERGENT AREA IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. RADAR ECHOES OF AROUND 20-25 DBZ WITH OCCASIONAL 30 DBZ HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...IT SEEMS THE HIGHER RATIO MORE CONCENTRATED LARGER FLAKES HAVE BEEN MAKING IT TO THE GROUND LEADING TO QUICKER ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS OUTSIDE OF THE NAM HANDLE THE CONVERGENCE WELL...BUT HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUSLY TOO QUICK DIMINISHING IT. AND DESPITE THE MORE LIMITED FETCH OF THE BAND WITH A WEST-TO-EAST NATURE...IT CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS OWN ON RADAR WITH. SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHER POPS INTO OVERNIGHT WITH THIS AREA AND SLOWLY SHIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO LAKE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AT ANY ONE POINT WILL LIKELY BE UNDER AN INCH...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A HIGHER BURST HERE AND THERE GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Great disco. This band is one of the more fascinating ones I've had the pleasure to track! I've been on the receiving end of these features before, and they usually only last 1, 2, maybe 3 hours and move on, but this one is whole different story. Been over 12 hours now and it's moved less then 10 miles! Looks like it is is swinging up to the north now. Some flurry action has pushed northwards towards N. Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah, I wa excited to see the advisory and thought "the new NAM must be showing something good" and when I checked out the NAM I was confused to see it look like crap. I've been trying to figure out what GRR sees. (and "93" is usually conservative in forecasting). Damn.. Good catch. I did not even think to look at who did that. That is surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Interesting. I see a few people from that area commenting with 4-5" reports. Might be a situation that needs a short term LES advisory? Especially since those amounts have fallen (If true) and the band appears to have stalled, at least from now. RC, I see you lurking...thoughts? Definitely a tough call, can't fault not issuing an advisory because it was so localized and also, the cat was already out of the bag in terms of the snow there by this evening. This would be a great case for polygon based winter warnings and advisories, which would really enable a focusing on the most impacted area. Perhaps a lake effect snow advisory could've been issued, but then outside the hard hit near north burbs, most places saw an inch or less. What does everyone think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think the SWS was good to have out there of course. This was so localized that an advisory would have been overkill for the entire county. A perfect situation for a polygon based winter wx warning, no doubt. Does a special wx statement get broadcast in any certain way outside of the LOT office website? A statement about the adverse conditions in NE Cook County could have been included through other media outlets. Not many people at where I work knew about it today and had no idea they about to drive into the band, unless myself and another person gave them fair warning about it! So yeah, I would support a winter wx polygon based warning system. There's lots of lake effect snow cases where that would work out well. --- Looks like that band is sneaking this way. Flurries are increasing here in Beach Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Definitely a tough call, can't fault not issuing an advisory because it was so localized and also, the cat was already out of the bag in terms of the snow there by this evening. This would be a great case for polygon based winter warnings and advisories, which would really enable a focusing on the most impacted area. Perhaps a lake effect snow advisory could've been issued, but then outside the hard hit near north burbs, most places saw an inch or less. What does everyone think? No doubt it was a tough call, and understandable too. As for polygon based winter headlines, I have always been a supporter of that. It would help in LE situations and situations that affect some of the larger/oddly shaped counties in the CWA or counties with large population centers...especially in gradient events. I think it would greatly help narrow down headlines and allow them to be more focused, which in the end would help the public even more. A perfect example is Cook Co. It's well known that the focus for headlines in the county are heavily based on Chicago...There have been numerous times where a certain headline has been issued for the county based on the urban forcus, while far NW portions of the county may receive totally different conditions that would require a different headline, but it's not issued due to the city focus. I know CLE and DLH are two offices in the region that have counties split into more zones for winter headlines, and think that several more offices should do the same. It's not polygons, but it's a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think the SWS was good to have out there of course. This was so localized that an advisory would have been overkill for the entire county. A perfect situation for a polygon based winter wx warning, no doubt. Does a special wx statement get broadcast in any certain way outside of the LOT office website? A statement about the adverse conditions in NE Cook County could have been included through other media outlets. Not many people at where I worked knew about it today and had no idea they about to drive into the band, unless myself and another person gave them fair warning about it! So yeah, I would support a winter wx polygon based warning system. There's lots of lake effect snow cases where that would work out well. --- Looks like that band is sneaking this way. Flurries are increasing here in Beach Park. Indeed there has been. This happened last winter here. Had a very thin band ( like the one there ) that came in off the lake and dropped a quick 4-5" here and not a flake even a few miles away. Thankfully me and a few others called it in because GRR did not even know the tiny band was producing so well. I had thought maybe the radar was screwed up. lol Hard to believe such a tiny band could produce like that. So yeah i too would support such as system for these kinds of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Indeed there has been. This happened last winter here. Had a very thin band ( like the one there ) that came in off the lake and dropped a quick 4-5" here and not a flake even a few miles away. Thankfully me and a few others called it in because GRR did not even know the tiny band was producing so well. I had thought maybe the radar was screwed up. lol Hard to believe such a tiny band could produce like that. So yeah i too would support such as system for these kinds of events. Today Alek mentioned the 5 dbz returns were steady light snow, something you wouldn't expect from such a low strength. But the radar beams can't see down far enough in the atmosphere to pick up the low level clouds and the additional moisture. The 20 dbz returns sounded like full on 30 dbz returns today! That's a whole 'nother topic right there! That goes to show you that call-in observations are very important and social media and outlets like this, helps make getting the news out a bit easier! I've called in and posted my observations before too. Particularly to WGN. --- Might as well make good on what I said: Flurries have become a near steady light snow here already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The models have entirely different opinions on what will happen with the possible meso-low Sat Evening-Sun Evening. Needless to say it will be a headache to try and forecast its impact. Regardless, the potential does exist for a nice surprise wherever it decides to make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The RAP has been too quick and too far north with the band today. It was supposed to be up here at about 4pm - it is just now getting up into the county! lol If the models are off like that, then areas like Musekgon and Grand Rapids might be better in snowfall. Thinking Brewers in Racine could be on the end of this band later today for awhile. 20dbz+ coming into Lake Forest and down where I work right now! Latest Milwaukee AFD: 000 FXUS63 KMKX 280331 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 931 PM CST THU DEC 27 2012 .UPDATE...IMPRESSIVE COMPACT SHORT WAVE CIRCULATON SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SODAK THIS EVENING...WILL BE NUDGED EWD BY UPSTREAM WEAK WAVE CAUGHT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD -SN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MRNG. 00Z NAM SHIFTING AXIS OF 0.25 INCH QPF SLIGHTLY NORTH...HOWEVER STRONGEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF CWA FROM MID- MORNING FRIDAY THRU FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECTING SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 16-18 TO 1 WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH QPF...HENCE WL STICK WITH MOSTLY 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS. LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY ALSO ADD AN INCH OR TWO TO SOME LAKESHORE AREAS...FROM MILWAUKEE NORTH. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Depending on when/where the mesolow develops, an area of interest will be just to the west of landfall; this area may be able to sustain a single band for a few hours. As of right now it looks like landfall may occur between Berrien County (MI) and La Porte County (IN). Of course, things will undoubtedly change and basically every shoreline county bordering S LM is in the game for a modest LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ILN puts out a WWA. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 331 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 ...SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ042>046-051>056- 060>065-070>074-077>082-088-281700- /O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0009.121229T0000Z-121229T1800Z/ WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO- SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-DARKE-SHELBY- LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH- LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD- BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN- HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY... BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...RISING SUN...VEVAY... CARROLLTON...WARSAW...BURLINGTON...INDEPENDENCE...ALEXANDRIA... GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE... PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK... EATON...DAYTON...XENIA...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...CIRCLEVILLE... LANCASTER...HAMILTON...LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CHILLICOTHE... LOGAN...CINCINNATI...MILFORD...GEORGETOWN...HILLSBORO... WEST UNION...PIKETON...PORTSMOUTH 331 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 4 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Models are trending wetter/snowier for southern Ontario. The 06z GFS, 00z GEFS, 00z Euro and 06z RGEM spit out 0.15-0.25" by Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Models are trending wetter/snowier for southern Ontario. The 06z GFS, 00z GEFS, 00z Euro and 06z RGEM spit out 0.15-0.25" by Saturday evening. There's also a small chance we get a little lake input, but the parameters are not stellar. Frankly, even calling them modest would probably be embellishing it, but there are some weak signals that a single band might try to form tomorrow morning. Wind fields are light so it might just stay offshore though. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Regardless of the storm you and most others in the snowbelt areas of W.MI should get in on some snow via LES after tomorrow as the flow FINALLY goes more westerly. May not be the biggest LES event but should whiten things up for most on this side of the lake who has been missed.. We have a WWA down here and so I was trying to figure out what system is what. I was reading thru GRR and saw this: FOR NOW I WILL LET OUR HEADLINES RIDE AS IS... HOWEVER I GET THE IMPRESSION THE SYSTEM TO ACTUALLY WATCH IS THE ONE COMING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. SEEMS THE TREND IS FOR THAT SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. GOING ALONG WITH THAT IDEA...WITH REGARD TO THE SNOW TODAY AND OUR HEADLINES... Watch as in thinking snow from it will make it that far north????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised if we have a hard time making it to 2 inches of snow. However Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties have a chance for 6 inches depending on where the lake effect stalls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Got 0.5" last night from LES it looks like. Light snow falling right now. No visible grass this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised if we have a hard time making it to 2 inches of snow. However Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties have a chance for 6 inches depending on where the lake effect stalls out. 0.5-1 inch is going to be a struggle. radar looks like ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM/GFS consistently trending more NW through the OH Valley...Saturday looking real interesting for few inches for SEMI. For tonight, the forecast becomes more complicated as a result of the combination of low-latitude cyclogenesis along the Gulf Coast and its interaction with the particularly receptive environment to the north. The NAM, including the 00z run, appears to have produced another erroneous solution as a result of this setup. To a lesser extent, it appears that the GFS may have as well. This is most evident on planviews of upper-level pv which show the structure of the upper-level trough succumbing to the effects of focused/intense gridscale release of latent heat across the Ohio Valley. The subsequent modeled downstream height rises/positive pv anomaly then propagates across the lower peninsula on Friday night, forcing the system to locally fall apart at the surface. Meanwhile, the seemingly more realistic of the 00z guidance would actually support an upward adjustment in overnight snow accums in the 06z-15z period. This is due to the expectation that deformation and weak moisture transport associated with the secondary surface low tracking into southeast Ohio/West Virginia scrape across southeast portions of the County Warning Area during maximum large-scale forcing. An additional inch will therefore be possible south of the I-69 corridor with something closer to 1.5" or 2" possible along a Monroe-to-Detroit line by Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RAP looks like it initializes the main band further south this morning. Local forecast and Konrad calling for 2-3" today along and north of the WI state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Snowing pretty decently here this morning. Won't amount to much of anything, but I'll take what I can get. Northern Iroquois County looks like it has been seeing some localized "heavier" snow; perhaps they can squeeze out an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RAP looks like it initializes the main band further south this morning. Local forecast and Konrad calling for 2-3" today along and north of the WI state line. It might be on to something. Radar is starting to fill in over northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Reflectories are "blossoming" near Kankakee County, IL. Should be moving in within the next half hour. Pretty sad that this is exciting for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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