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Storm threat (Early Jan) 1/4 - 1/6


SACRUS

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the northern stream is too quick or the low in the SW hangs back too much to get excited about this for much longer. there could be some overrunning out ahead of this but eventually it looks to get squashed to the SE. unless the gfs is wrong by having too much of a dominant northern stream and the euro is wrong by hanging the energy back in the SW, take the middle ground then we might have something if its timed well. progressive flow, no 50/50 ....timing is everything.

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The 00Z GFS gets some overrunning snows into S NJ before shearing the disturbance out...we're really sharing the wealth if we go interior storm, coastal storm, southern NJ/MA storm all in a week.

It looks like we could be entering a really active pattern in the next week or two if the models are correct in the medium range. Not only is the threat at 108 hr interesting if that vort were to trend any stronger (very common with shortwaves ejecting out of the southwest), but there's another bigger threat on the table almost immediately after that. This 150hr frame grabbed my attention immediately.

f150.gif

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PNA has been + for the past week and hadn't been + since Nov. 1. Of course, PNA continues to become more +, NAO also continues to move in a positive direction. AO is expected to drop again. Of course, once the Pacific begins to cooperate, the Atlantic begins to breakdown.

Ideal ridge out west at 144 hours. The phase between the 2 streams is a bit messy though, so its ots this run. Huge potential though

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I see a lot of overrunning potential and just because the NAO is positive doesn't mean we can't get big snows. While we may not see a sub 980 bomb with a +NAO, a +PNA and strong confluence and a very healthy widespread cold air mass could easily feature overrunning events with energy from the SW and gulf being ejected into the cold air mass.

PD II was not a strong storm at all. If the moisture is significant enough, those events could put out a ton of snowfall despite a relatively weak storm system.

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I see a lot of overrunning potential and just because the NAO is positive doesn't mean we can't get big snows. While we may not see a sub 980 bomb with a +NAO, a +PNA and strong confluence and a very healthy widespread cold air mass could easily feature overrunning events with energy from the SW and gulf being ejected into the cold air mass.

PD II was not a strong storm at all. If the moisture is significant enough, those events could put out a ton of snowfall despite a relatively weak storm system.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2003/us0217.php

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It looks like we could be entering a really active pattern in the next week or two if the models are correct in the medium range. Not only is the threat at 108 hr interesting if that vort were to trend any stronger (very common with shortwaves ejecting out of the southwest), but there's another bigger threat on the table almost immediately after that. This 150hr frame grabbed my attention immediately.

f150.gif

yea, todays 12z shows the same....this can be huge. right now the timing is all off between the two waves but the potential is certainly there.

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Models are just screaming potential for next week. You have that low sitting down in the gulf and plenty of northern stream energy diving down through the mid-west. Just screams a trend towards a phase over the SE and big storm potential. Nice high pressure moving into SE Canada as well.

f144.gif

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Models are just screaming potential for next week. You have that low sitting down in the gulf and plenty of northern stream energy diving down through the mid-west. Just screams a trend towards a phase over the SE and big storm potential. Nice high pressure moving into SE Canada as well.

f144.gif

That is one impressive +PNA ridge! My concern is the lack of blocking in the atlantic and the orientation of the east coast trough. Could very well send the southern wave OTS..

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12z Euro continues the theme of not ejecting the southern stream energy so we're basically left with freezing to death under the PV. It also has the cut-off in California which it doesn't seem to want to let go of either. I know earthlight talked about the GFS not closing off the low out there which would bode well for us so hopefully this is its bias at play...

post-532-0-01725400-1356720213_thumb.gif

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12z Friday JMA is our biggest hit with this storm at the moment, it brings the storm northeast over night on Thursday from Georgia at 144 hrs, to Nova Scotia at 168 hrs, the .10-.25 line runs north to Southeast NY State and NE PA, and the .25-.50 runs north to Trenton and NYC, in a southeast to northwest orientation with the track of the low. Looks like a nice trend.

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