Snow_Miser Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Check out the upper air charts at hour 132 on the 18z GFS. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Southern Shortwave this run is much better defined at 500 mb than it was at 12z. 12z was a sheared out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If that shortwave were a little bit slower, this might have been able to phase earlier. Huge potential at hand though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z GFS just got quite a bit closer with this one, bringing the precipitation as close as Virginia now, with the storm center going across the north Florida panhandle and then paralleling the coastal Carolinas about 100-150 miles off shore. Also a massive upper level low over the central U.S., if we can slow down the low pressure a bit and speed up the upper level low, we might be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z GFS puts us on the fringes of a Nor'easter next Sunday as another low pressure develops off the Carolina coast and moves north as that strong upper level low finally approaches the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z GFS puts us on the fringes of a Nor'easter next Sunday as another low pressure develops off the Carolina coast and moves north as that strong upper level low finally approaches the East Coast. I was looking at that as well for 1/5 - 1/6 period. The pattern seems ripe perhaps between or on the backside of a retreating arctic high. Lets see how the ensembles and Euro trend. What is likely is the period prior to the 5th looks cold and dry with systems staying suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z Canadian also has the Nor'easter sitting off the Carolina Coast late next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z GEFS gets close to bringing the first low up the coast late on Thursday. It gets some light precipitation in here, with the significant stuff as close as Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z GEFS shows a signal for the 2nd storm on the next Monday instead of on Sunday on the operational run, but there seem to be two chances here, one on Thursday night into Friday and the other next Sunday or Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 quite a few of the individual GEFS members now brush our area with some light snow on Thursday or Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I think this storm is going to be further north and west - considering what has happened the last couple of weeks - todays storm we were worried missing to the east a few days ago and up until a day or so ago everyone was certain this would be an all snow event in the metro..............and now we have a changeover to drizzle ,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Off NC and OTS on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 that would be a real kick in the pants if this next one delivers big for areas to the south and we are left behind - 11/12 ish feb 19-20 2012 did the same thing.......... We'll see. Many GEFS members were NW and wetter than the Operational, bringing a light snow event to the region. This is also still a week or so away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I don't know if this will be able to come north. The PV looks to be supressing it quite a bit. Maybe we can get some northern stream energy in there to disrupt the PV and possibly get it to phase. The Euro at 12z completely shears it out before it ever makes it to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The pattern has trended way too suppressed. We need a change to get any of those storms close to our location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I agree that this pattern is of a suppressed nature, especially with the fresh dump of colder air into the region. The 18z GFS did bring some light precipitation into Southern New Jersey though. Maybe we can get this to trend just enough north and west to bring a light event to the area. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 18z GFS pushes it further north still, mirroring the 12z GEFS, bringing the precip as close as South Jersey on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 There isn't alot of blocking . What is making this storm staying well south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 There isn't alot of blocking . What is making this storm staying well south? The cold push of air to the north, but if that upper air energy to the west can merge with it we will be in business. It will be a timing issue I think. It needs that piece to merge with it though I believe, to get it to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 +NAO I'm thinking it trends further north over time, this is the one case where a +NAO may be a good thing. Or maybe I just badly want a solid snow event, this near misses are killer. First the storm is too far west, now too far east, now too far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z Canadian ensemble mean likes the idea of an east coast storm next weekend, does not show an organized area of low pressure but does show a decent amount of precip along and inland of the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z Canadian ensemble mean likes the idea of an east coast storm next weekend, does not show an organized area of low pressure but does show a decent amount of precip along and inland of the east coast. What? Fill us in on your reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 What? Fill us in on your reasoning Well, clearly you can see the moisture going up the east coast there from the Gulf of Mexico. The ensembles and the operational runs are all pointing at the possibility of two storms near the east coast, one on Thursday night into Friday, and one on Sunday or Monday. Of course, you don't have to just take my word for it, Chad Meyers was saying the same thing on CNN yesterday, but models and ensembles clearly indicate that some members are showing this possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Well, clearly you can see the moisture going up the east coast there from the Gulf of Mexico. The ensembles and the operational runs are all pointing at the possibility of two storms near the east coast, one on Thursday night into Friday, and one on Sunday or Monday. Of course, you don't have to just take my word for it, Chad Meyers was saying the same thing on CNN yesterday, but models and ensembles clearly indicate that some members are showing this possibility. There's a high pressure over the Mid Atlantic on that map dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 N/W trend will win out as always. Usually when DT says no snow north of DC for a storm a week+ in advance, it ends up raining in DT land. This one is worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 N/W trend will win out as always. Usually when DT says no snow north of DC for a storm a week+ in advance, it ends up raining in DT land. This one is worth watching Good point. DT is a probability forecaster up here though. Looks like there is a favorable shift in the teleconnectors in this time frame, so you might be on to something. Could be a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 What? Fill us in on your reasoning Did you intentionally cherry pick that image? Because there is this one too, 24 hours later that I was really talking about. Do I really need to give my reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Maybe if we can get a better phase on the EURO/GFS and get more of a negative tilt going, we'd be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 And here is the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Well, anyway, as I said before it is not just me. Chad Meyers on CNN was talking about a Thursday possible storm, one for around Sunday/Monday, and one around Wednesday/Thursday. I personally find him to be one of the best, if not the best around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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