aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Poor Dave...he's still answering questions based on last nights euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Poor Dave...he's still answering questions based on last nights euro... Well I submitted my article before seeing the Euro for today and ti was a pretty bad one to start with. I guess that no one has posted on the euro about the Jan 2 or 3 event means it is not looking that great either. I haven't seen it year but was surprised by how warm the euro looked on new years eve. Looks pretty seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Poor Dave...he's still answering questions based on last nights euro... first guess delayed...family crap to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 2016/2017 will be an epic winter. lol, it's just not cold enough yet. simple as that. our wheelhouse is early jan to mid-feb. anything else is a gift. i think these storms are happening a few weeks too early, climo-wise, at least for dc-bmore. i still think we can get a couple inches on the front end. temps are supposed to drop into the upper 20's friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 lol, it's just not cold enough yet. simple as that. our wheelhouse is early jan to mid-feb. anything else is a gift. i think these storms are happening a few weeks too early, climo-wise, at least for dc-bmore. i still think we can get a couple inches on the front end. temps are supposed to drop into the upper 20's friday evening. yes...it is hard to get a snowstorm with bootleg air masses in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 yes...it is hard to get a snowstorm with bootleg air masses in December Trouble is we rarely get the really cold air masses anymore. I'd like a post frontal day in the 20 instead of the 40s. The latter makes it tough unless the high is in a perfect spot and the storm track is a nice miller a or some sheared out weak thing to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Trouble is we rarely get the really cold air masses anymore. I'd like a post frontal day in the 20 instead of the 40s. The latter makes it tough unless the high is in a perfect spot and the storm track is a nice miller a or some sheared out weak thing to our south. I think the last time the Potomac froze over (shore to shore) was about 8-9 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Climo is not really a huge issue at this pt. we aren't in our snowiest time yet but we can certainly get snow in late Dec. Wes probably hits on the bigger issue that it never seems to get cold anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Climo is not really a huge issue at this pt. we aren't in our snowiest time yet but we can certainly get snow in late Dec. Wes probably hits on the bigger issue that it never seems to get cold anymore. not as much but it still is...we just don't get as much snow this time of year...I think it has a lot to do with wavelengths and other things I don't understand....seems like 1/10-2/20 is our wheelhouse...even though average temps are ok by now, it is still tougher to get a storm...otherwise we would have a lot more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Better start getting used to it... as I said before, DC's climate is clearly changing. Obviously years like 09-10 will still happen (and probably more frequently, at least for a few decades) but the overall trend has been for markedly warmer weather, especially since the 1990s, and a resulting median annual snowfall that is dropping quite rapidly now. What is it, 11" for DCA? I expect the same will happen for NYC and Boston, it's just taking longer because they were colder to begin with. The dense & urban areas of cities like NYC and DC will rarely go below freezing by the 2100s, IMO. 2008-2011 we had 3 cold winters in a row and only 3 torch winters out of the last 11.....I am not sure you are familiar with DC climo anymore.....snow is a different story...we have been feast or famine since the late 80s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Agree how many times has DC hit 32 or colder in late fall to now? My location KNAK I posted this on DT FB He said I was lying about not being able to hit 32 pagehttp://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNAK/2012/12/27/MonthlyHistory.html look at the temp line. I remember as a kid having to wear a winter coat in the last 5 or so winters I just have a light jacket on now in the winter. Climo is not really a huge issue at this pt. we aren't in our snowiest time yet but we can certainly get snow in late Dec. Wes probably hits on the bigger issue that it never seems to get cold anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 not as much but it still is...we just don't get as much snow this time of year...I think it has a lot to do with wavelengths and other things I don't understand....seems like 1/10-2/20 is our wheelhouse...even though average temps are ok by now, it is still tougher to get a storm...otherwise we would have a lot more Big storms might be tougher to come by in Dec but I think there is still evidence we are losing snow on the margins lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Larry Cosgrove says 3 to 5 inches for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Larry Cosgrove says 3 to 5 inches for us. Damn. It is probably over then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Damn. It is probably over then.. That's what i was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Damn. It is probably over then.. Yup, he's awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's sad when we're able to make an accurate forecast based on the biases of bad forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Well our future shows .5 QPF on the mean, and some indiv members are good. In a great show of consistency, the 15Z SREF mean has pulled the precip back SE and looks terrible now. Hooray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 In a great show of consistency, the 15Z SREF mean has pulled the precip back SE and looks terrible now. Hooray! ahh mean .35, lotta nice members, a few are light on the NW side. Who knows? Good enough for me, hopefully you'll take it also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 In a great show of consistency, the 15Z SREF mean has pulled the precip back SE and looks terrible now. Hooray! now that it and the euro have pulled back, watch the nam get wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 now that it and the euro have pulled back, watch the nam get wetter. Looks like it might at 18Z. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks like it might at 18Z. LOL Don't get depressed Phin, from MT. Holly: POTENTIAL WATCH AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST PA...S NJ.. PORTIONS OF NE MD AND N DE.. 4 INCHES. ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR AT LEAST NECESSARY ROAD TREATMENT AMOUNTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SNOW GROWTH MAY ALLOW AN INCH/HOUR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Model hugfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 now that it and the euro have pulled back, watch the nam get wetter. tbh Wes, I've pretty much stopped micro-analyzing these setups because of what I've recently witnessed by doing just that for the better part of the last 3 weeks. These big moving piece setups cannot be modeled well. Move one feature 100 miles a couple days in time (tiny tiny amount in the big picture) and everything changes dramatically. I know I'm preaching to the choir here but I just want to make that point again. So, we have this kinda complicated multi-vort system trying to dig "somewhere" above or below us. And another big storm spinning in the maritimes. All the while, there is no obvious big nao block or stable ridging in the west. What the models are showing is just a spread of possibilities (stating obvious) and there are a lot of possible outcomes. We all know the airmass is sketchy. That's kinda set in stone. So we need some good lift, rates, and slp deepening in the right place to drag what cold air it can find to the north. IMO- this thing trends wetter and colder all the way through gametime. Just a hunch. The old persistence thing. I'll stick with the same hunch I had a day or 2 ago. 1-3 cities and 2-4 north and west. If areas end up mixing (and some certainly will) then the changeover will happen later than expected. This is a marginal event no matter what unless everything hits on all cylinders. Sure it can happen that way but I wouldn't bet a quarter on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Model hugfest Lol, when I made the comment about the NAM I hadn't yet seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Lol, when I made the comment about the NAM I hadn't yet seen it. Not directed at you just in general the mood changes too often. I swear people move more with the models than they used to. I kinda agree with Bob on this one. I'd hedge snowier than current consensus. There are issues but there almost always are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Model hugfest Time to switch to water vapor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NAM is drier anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This has happened too many times the euro following the gfs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Not directed at you just in general the mood changes too often. I swear people move more with the models than they used to. I kinda agree with Bob on this one. I'd hedge snowier than current consensus. There are issues but there almost always are. it ended up not looking that great. :less than .25 but starts as snow. I'm less enamored for DC and my house as I think unless we get decent rates, we probably won't see much stickage and it could even turn to rain. This run does have it start as snow and would probably give an inch or 2 our toward Ji and maybe Iad. I've never liked seeing a low to our northwest especially with no real surface high to give us CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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