buckeye Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I always thought this was an Indy special no matter what happens everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 My call is for 2-4" in Toronto, possibly 6" if we can luck out. It all depends on whetehr or not the southeast trend continues. sorry but this is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Alberta Clippers is how we survived Useless but helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 My call is for 2-4" in Toronto, possibly 6" if we can luck out. It all depends on whetehr or not the southeast trend continues. Can't blame you for being conservative given our luck. Definitely not a "trend" yet. 6z GFS/12z NAM might end up being aberrant. We'll get a sense in about 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceJA91 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM always goes ballistic with qpf in these kinds of storms lol. Yeah i know. Thats too much for me i love snow but i have a family to think about. Anything over 10 i really don't want to deal with being I'm not real close to a city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 RGEM out through 36. Looks similar to the NAM aloft, but has a much deeper sfc low (998 compared to >1004 on the NAM) an the AR/LA/MS triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 How you survived the 1990s is beyond me. More used to it. I REALLY started to get into weather in the mid-1990s, right when we hit a run of crappy winters. It was what we knew back then...its not what we know now. Since I began measuring imby... 95-96: 31.3" 96-97: 35.9" 97-98: 27.2" 98-99: 51.6" 99-00: 29.3" 00-01: 47.3" 01-02: 42.5" 02-03: 66.9" 03-04: 36.6" 04-05: 80.7" 05-06: 41.9" 06-07: 36.3" 07-08: 78.2" 08-09: 64.8" 09-10: 46.1" 10-11: 69.4" 11-12: 25.5" 12-13: ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Need to save that one.. Santa, please let this map become reality! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Similar placement but deeper: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Can't blame you for being conservative given our luck. Definitely not a "trend" yet. 6z GFS/12z NAM might end up being aberrant. We'll get a sense in about 20 minutes. The fact that the EURO still has us around 1.00'' QPF makes me still feel good about this. EDIT: Also the new 9z SREF mean still has us in the 1.00''-1.25'' QPF range FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12Z RGEM hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Alberta Clippers is how we survived Yup. I swear 75% of our snow came from those back then. The last decade, we have gotten way less clippers than the '90s, but way more snow. Also...a clipper in the '90s was almost always a 1-3" or 2-4" snowfall...now in the 2000s, though they are less in frequency, they can be stronger in strength. Point to the clippers of 2004 & 2005 in SE MI....up to and over a foot in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 sorry but this is ridiculous. You don't know Toronto. I've lived here most of my life, save for 6 years in Ottawa. This is not a city prone to heavy snowfalls. Climo and topography work against it. And the frustrating thing is that most torontonians are happy about this. Most weather agencies will say, "we lucked out again" when a storm misses us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Similar placement but deeper: Less confluence as well compared to the NAM, noted by higher heights over the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You don't know Toronto. I've lived here most of my life, save for 6 years in Ottawa. This is not a city prone to heavy snowfalls. Climo and topography work against it. And the frustrating thing is that most torontonians are happy about this. Most weather agencies will say, "we lucked out again" when a storm misses us. When I hear this it just solidifies my argument that Toronto is the city of weather complainers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 For what it's worth, JB seems to have Toronto in the 4-8" range, leaning more towards 6". It's hard to tell given the map he posted on his twitter is understandably U.S. based. The map he made a few days ago seems to match this morning's GFS and NAM trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Need to save that one.. Santa, please let this map become reality! Print that one and paste it on your bedroom ceiling. Really though, throwing out the clearly over QPF-ed NAM...KIND's 5-9" in the WSW text is probably a good call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Less confluence as well compared to the NAM, noted by higher heights over the northeast. Would like to see 60 and 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Need to save that one.. Santa, please let this map become reality! Absolutely, what a Christmas gift this would be for our parts of Indiana.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 When I hear this it just solidifies my argument that Toronto is the city of weather complainers. It really is. Last January I drove up to Ottawa to meet some friends. It started snowing steadily in the afternoon, continuing into the evening, with an air temperature around -13 degrees celcius. In Toronto, nobody would have showed up to meet me. Up there, everybody did. The snow didn't phase them. In Toronto the avergage public panics if 2" is forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Most important GFS run of my life, until 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Could be a disaster run For Most of MI minus extreme SEMI We always have the Saturday event...................................... sarcasm ......................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Print that one and paste it on your bedroom ceiling. Really though, throwing out the clearly over QPF-ed NAM...KIND's 5-9" in the WSW text is probably a good call right now. Definitely over done just a little bit. Last time we saw a map like that, 2007 VDay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It really is. Last January I drove up to Ottawa to meet some friends. It started snowing steadily in the afternoon, continuing into the evening, with an air temperature around -13 degrees celcius. In Toronto, nobody would have showed up to meet me. Up there, everybody did. The snow didn't phase them. In Toronto the avergage public panics if 2" is forecasted. We complain when it's cold out and the temperature is around 0. Imagine if we got cold like the what the praries have been expieriencing. We wouldn't probably step outside lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Definitely over done just a little bit. Last time we saw a map like that, 2007 VDay! A blurb on Indy's WSW product, might give them wiggle room to up their 5-9" amounts: "FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOW TOTALS AS MORE WARM AIR WOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER SNOW TOTALS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Thanks to the damn BLOCKING! Where was that blocking for us during last week's low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 A blurb on Indy's WSW product, might give them wiggle room to up their 5-9" amounts: "FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOW TOTALS AS MORE WARM AIR WOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER SNOW TOTALS." Yes there could be some higher totals, but not in the 18-20" range like the NAM is tossing out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 In the anti-snow hell we call our home, YOU NEVER KNOW. I think my area has now taken on that reputation. This storm is looking good for you. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 If there wasn't confluence to the north, would it still transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Gonna be an ugly GFS run for us here in the northern tier me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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