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Vendor Forecast Discussion

am19psu

By am19psu,
in Philadelphia Region

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am19psu

am19psu

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I don't lump DT with these other guys as I think he is pretty good. How we forget how many times he did phone/video chats for the American and (mostly) Eastern weather boards. I'm sorry he had a falling out but that doesn't make him a bad met.

You can be just as good as DT. All you need is the European model.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
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From JB this AM

 

"Before I get going, I favor the Canadian not because of wishcasting but because its whaat I believe this will do based on the pattern. That being said, I can not be sure with that until I see what these players look like on the field. The ECMWF has come along way from what it looked like 48 hours ago for the period in question,"

"Going forward look out. This is not monkeying around as storms and rumors of storms take over. The storm to the lakes Tuesday then slows under the block off the ne coast and the next storm comes out with a furious I-70 north Blizzard in the plains and is likely to weaken a bit in the Ohio valley before refiring along the east coast. I like what the GFS is up to with this on its 00z run, though many of the models weaken it east. Still next Saturday morning, alot of the nation is going to have snow on the ground"

 

Pic from 6z GFS snow by next Sat AM

post-341-0-31231900-1360936952_thumb.png

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
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@BigJoeBastardi: If GFS is right me & my buddy Mark will be doing Southside Johnny "Been a Long Time" gig at the Anc in SP, watching winddriven Coastal snow

@BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF joins the Ice Age now crowd over next 10 days http://t.co/L3e4fBP6

@BigJoeBastardi: Wow new nam has 6 inch snow max tonight n of bwi

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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@BigJoeBastardi: If GFS is right me & my buddy Mark will be doing Southside Johnny "Been a Long Time" gig at the Anc in SP, watching winddriven Coastal snow @BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF joins the Ice Age now crowd over next 10 days http://t.co/L3e4fBP6 @BigJoeBastardi: Wow new nam has 6 inch snow max tonight n of bwi

6" of snow with a surface temperature of 47 at onset and 36 at the end?  He has lost his mind

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

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It is surprising...... but as surprising was that at least 3 individual emails to me mentioned they would never ask for it on the forum because they fear being ridiculed on here by many.....I hate to see folks feeling that way as I think we have the best regional forum and all posts are welcome.....uh we'll except for Lee's inflated snow totals......just kidding Lee!!

I find it depressing that people actually e-mail you about it. JB's words should not garner that strong of desire.
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Snow Man

Snow Man

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It is surprising...... but as surprising was that at least 3 individual emails to me mentioned they would never ask for it on the forum because they fear being ridiculed on here by many.....I hate to see folks feeling that way as I think we have the best regional forum and all posts are welcome.....uh we'll except for Lee's inflated snow totals......just kidding Lee!!

 

I am not afraid to ask you to do it. It is all contained in one thread which was a great idea (thanks am19psu) so if you don't want to see it look at a different thread. Meanwhile I like to soak in what everyone is saying to formulate my opinion about the possibilities. Of course I put much more weight on what the posters on here think but I do like to consider DT and JB's thoughts too.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

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Carmen.....well said!!

I am not afraid to ask you to do it. It is all contained in one thread which was a great idea (thanks am19psu) so if you don't want to see it look at a different thread. Meanwhile I like to soak in what everyone is saying to formulate my opinion about the possibilities. Of course I put much more weight on what the posters on here think but I do like to consider DT and JB's thoughts too.
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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
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Some snippets from JB at WB from today

 

"Here is something else to look for. In blocks,models will "get rid" of cold air until they realize that the cold air is not leaving. So the storm starts running toward the block and all this warm air shows up and the model says, heh keep pushing it. Only problem is that once it starts precipping in the cold air , the model then realizes its not 52 degrees in PHL and it says, I cant lift this air, the low level air is colder, the pressures are higher and then it lowers the temps. Point is in the plains you get smashed over the next week, in the east you get storms running at you that MUST EXIT off the mid atlantic coast, so once north of the Mason Dixon line what looks like rain 3 days away witll probably be ice, snow, or NO."

 

"There is risk in everything. There is risk you stay up and study something for days and set something up, and then its 100 miles east of what you were pointing at. I have trained over a year to compete at something, then got blown out of the water, you cant imagine how that feels. But it comes down to what you are really interested in. So here is the fact. This pattern is loaded. We have smashed one big area and they are above normal for the year without another flake (much of New England) NYC at 19 inches is about where they should be for the total of a normal year which is a shade over 25 inches. PHL To DC and Chicago ( and I am talking areas around them, are in a hole) But the Ohio valley isnt, its about where it should be there. . But if you look at past events and take the time to study this, you can see why I am telling you what I am, This is nowhere near over. There is a chance that 1 or 2 slow moving blockbusters come right into the area in the mid atlantic that is below normal in the same way the plains are going to get it in this front week. One of these things locks off in the mid atlantic and look out. But its not because of magic, its because of a puzzle that we have been constructing all winter is putting the final pieces in place"

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famartin

famartin

Posted
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Some snippets from JB at WB from today

 

"Here is something else to look for. In blocks,models will "get rid" of cold air until they realize that the cold air is not leaving. So the storm starts running toward the block and all this warm air shows up and the model says, heh keep pushing it. Only problem is that once it starts precipping in the cold air , the model then realizes its not 52 degrees in PHL and it says, I cant lift this air, the low level air is colder, the pressures are higher and then it lowers the temps. Point is in the plains you get smashed over the next week, in the east you get storms running at you that MUST EXIT off the mid atlantic coast, so once north of the Mason Dixon line what looks like rain 3 days away witll probably be ice, snow, or NO."

 

"There is risk in everything. There is risk you stay up and study something for days and set something up, and then its 100 miles east of what you were pointing at. I have trained over a year to compete at something, then got blown out of the water, you cant imagine how that feels. But it comes down to what you are really interested in. So here is the fact. This pattern is loaded. We have smashed one big area and they are above normal for the year without another flake (much of New England) NYC at 19 inches is about where they should be for the total of a normal year which is a shade over 25 inches. PHL To DC and Chicago ( and I am talking areas around them, are in a hole) But the Ohio valley isnt, its about where it should be there. . But if you look at past events and take the time to study this, you can see why I am telling you what I am, This is nowhere near over. There is a chance that 1 or 2 slow moving blockbusters come right into the area in the mid atlantic that is below normal in the same way the plains are going to get it in this front week. One of these things locks off in the mid atlantic and look out. But its not because of magic, its because of a puzzle that we have been constructing all winter is putting the final pieces in place"

 

He sure knows how to keep the weenies on his leash.

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allman15

allman15

Posted
Posted

Some snippets from JB at WB from today

 

"Here is something else to look for. In blocks,models will "get rid" of cold air until they realize that the cold air is not leaving. So the storm starts running toward the block and all this warm air shows up and the model says, heh keep pushing it. Only problem is that once it starts precipping in the cold air , the model then realizes its not 52 degrees in PHL and it says, I cant lift this air, the low level air is colder, the pressures are higher and then it lowers the temps. Point is in the plains you get smashed over the next week, in the east you get storms running at you that MUST EXIT off the mid atlantic coast, so once north of the Mason Dixon line what looks like rain 3 days away witll probably be ice, snow, or NO."

 

"There is risk in everything. There is risk you stay up and study something for days and set something up, and then its 100 miles east of what you were pointing at. I have trained over a year to compete at something, then got blown out of the water, you cant imagine how that feels. But it comes down to what you are really interested in. So here is the fact. This pattern is loaded. We have smashed one big area and they are above normal for the year without another flake (much of New England) NYC at 19 inches is about where they should be for the total of a normal year which is a shade over 25 inches. PHL To DC and Chicago ( and I am talking areas around them, are in a hole) But the Ohio valley isnt, its about where it should be there. . But if you look at past events and take the time to study this, you can see why I am telling you what I am, This is nowhere near over. There is a chance that 1 or 2 slow moving blockbusters come right into the area in the mid atlantic that is below normal in the same way the plains are going to get it in this front week. One of these things locks off in the mid atlantic and look out. But its not because of magic, its because of a puzzle that we have been constructing all winter is putting the final pieces in place"

reading between the lines i think JB says its not going to snow in philly...wtf

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tombo82685

tombo82685

Posted
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I could not agree more--  When was the last time ABE had a six inch snow in the winter that actually met winter storm criteria- 3 years---   feb 2010-- we are in a hole and will remain there even 2014. 

If you are going to complain and whine, at least get your facts straight which you don't have. jan 26-27 2011 abe recorded 11.6....Oct 31 storm abe recorded 6.8 inches. So to my knowledge that is only a year and a half. Philly and the immediate burbs are running a 6 inch or more drought longer than your area. 

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Grothar

Grothar

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Posted

If you are going to complain and whine, at least get your facts straight which you don't have. jan 26-27 2011 abe recorded 11.6....Oct 31 storm abe recorded 6.8 inches. So to my knowledge that is only a year and a half. Philly and the immediate burbs are running a 6 inch or more drought longer than your area. 

technical, Tombo, I said winter in my quote 6.8 was not in winter and melted as fast as it fell and was not the other storm over two days? We all need a good 6+ snow period

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famartin

famartin

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was not the other storm over two days?

No. 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CF6ABE&version=25&max=61

000CXUS51 KPHI 022028CF6ABEPRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)                                          STATION:   ALLENTOWN PA                                          MONTH:     JANUARY                                          YEAR:      2011                                          LATITUDE:   40 39 N                                          LONGITUDE:  75 26 W  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND================================================================================1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MINDY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR================================================================================ 1  50  26  38   9  27   0 0.00  0.0    0  0.6  7 220   M    M   3 18      9 210 2  49  32  41  12  24   0 0.07  0.0    0  6.9 16 300   M    M   8 1      21 300 3  34  20  27  -1  38   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.4 17 330   M    M   1        25 310 4  42  20  31   3  34   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.6 18 260   M    M   3        23 250 5  37  18  28   0  37   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.8 18 270   M    M   3        26 270 6  32  14  23  -5  42   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.4 12 140   M    M   3        16 290 7  30  10  20  -8  45   0 0.14  1.7    1  4.6 13 290   M    M   6 1      21 290 8  27   9  18 -10  47   0 0.04  0.6    1  3.2 13 270   M    M   7 18     16 260 9  30  21  26  -2  39   0 0.00  0.0    2 12.6 22 310   M    M   5        32 32010  31  19  25  -3  40   0 0.00  0.0    2  8.4 17 320   M    M   0        24 30011  30  10  20  -7  45   0 0.25  3.7    1  3.3 12 100   M    M   5 1      16 11012  28  13  21  -6  44   0 0.06  0.9    4  9.3 22 300   M    M   8 1      32 31013  26   8  17 -10  48   0    T    T    4 10.9 22 320   M    M   4        28 32014  28   5  17 -10  48   0 0.00  0.0    3  4.6 14 310   M    M   3        18 32015  34  11  23  -4  42   0 0.00  0.0    3  4.8 13 190   M    M   7        16 21016  34  19  27   0  38   0 0.00  0.0    2  8.4 17 280   M    M   2        23 30017  24  13  19  -8  46   0 0.02  0.3    2  5.0 10  90   M    M   9 1      13  9018  35  22  29   2  36   0 0.69  1.6    4  7.3 18  50   M    M   9 16     22  6019  40  33  37  10  28   0 0.05    T    4  6.1 12 320   M    M  10 1      15 31020  34  26  30   3  35   0 0.03  0.2    2  6.0 14 330   M    M   7 1      20 32021  28  14  21  -6  44   0 0.32  4.2    5 11.3 24 270   M    M   4 1      32 27022  20   2  11 -16  54   0 0.00  0.0    5  5.2 16 300   M    M   0        22 31023  22  -1  11 -16  54   0 0.00  0.0    4  6.3 17 300   M    M   2        23 28024  20  -4   8 -19  57   0 0.00  0.0    0  1.5  9 310   M    M   3        16 15025  34  16  25  -2  40   0    T  0.1    4  1.9  7 240   M    M   9         9  9026  31  25  28   0  37   0 0.91 11.3    4  9.9 20  20   M    M   9 18     25  2027  35  19  27  -1  38   0 0.02  0.3   14  8.8 23 330   M    M   8 1      30 29028  31  18  25  -3  40   0 0.05  0.7   13  2.3  8 190   M    M   9 18     10 18029  30  11  21  -7  44   0 0.02  0.9   13  3.9 16 240   M    M   6 1      21 26030  35  18  27  -1  38   0 0.00  0.0   14  5.5 15 270   M    M   7 128    20 30031  29   5  17 -11  48   0    T    T   12  3.5 12 110   M    M   3        17 100================================================================================SM  990  472      1277   0  2.67    26.5 184.3          M      163================================================================================AV 31.9 15.2                               5.9 FASTST   M    M   5    MAX(MPH)                                 MISC ---->  # 24 270               # 32  320================================================================================NOTES:# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCESCOLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2                                          STATION:  ALLENTOWN PA                                          MONTH:    JANUARY                                          YEAR:     2011                                          LATITUDE:   40 39 N                                          LONGITUDE:  75 26 W[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16AVERAGE MONTHLY: 23.6   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   2.67    1 = FOG OR MISTDPTR FM NORMAL:  -3.5   DPTR FM NORMAL:   -0.83    2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITYHIGHEST:    50 ON  1    GRTST 24HR  0.92 ON 26-27      TO 1/4 MILE OR LESSLOWEST:     -4 ON 24                               3 = THUNDER                        SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL    4 = ICE PELLETS                        TOTAL MONTH:  26.5 INCHES  5 = HAIL                        GRTST 24HR  11.3 ON   M    6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE                        GRTST DEPTH:  14 ON 30,27  7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:                                                       VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS                                                   8 = SMOKE OR HAZE[NO. OF DAYS WITH]      [WEATHER - DAYS WITH]      9 = BLOWING SNOW                                                   X = TORNADOMAX 32 OR BELOW:  18    0.01 INCH OR MORE:  14MAX 90 OR ABOVE:   0    0.10 INCH OR MORE:   5MIN 32 OR BELOW:  30    0.50 INCH OR MORE:   2MIN  0 OR BELOW:   2    1.00 INCH OR MORE:   0[HDD (BASE 65) ]TOTAL THIS MO.  1277    CLEAR  (SCALE 0-3)  10DPTR FM NORMAL   118    PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7)  15TOTAL FM JUL 1  3482    CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10)  6DPTR FM NORMAL   117[CDD (BASE 65) ]TOTAL THIS MO.     0DPTR FM NORMAL     0    [PRESSURE DATA]TOTAL FM JAN 1     0    HIGHEST SLP 30.52 ON 31DPTR FM NORMAL     0    LOWEST  SLP 29.39 ON  7[REMARKS]#FINAL-01-11#
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