HailMan06 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Hi All: Its getting close to December so I felt that I should post my first monthly thread. The pattern we are going into seems to be with us until at least December 20th. We may have an occasional snow shower and cold period. With a pacific airmass overspreading the CONUS any polar airmass will rapidly modify, preventing any arctic outbreaks from occurring. Additionally, the lack of a temperature gradient and a northerly polar jet will tend to lead to a lack of strominess and precipitation, leading to a continuation of the dry pattern we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Chilly out there this morning. The wind and clouds making it feel December like for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Hi All: Its getting close to December so I felt that I should post my first monthly thread. The pattern we are going into seems to be with us until at least December 20th. We may have an occasional snow shower and cold period. With a pacific airmass overspreading the CONUS any polar airmass will rapidly modify, preventing any arctic outbreaks from occurring. Additionally, the lack of a temperature gradient and a northerly polar jet will tend to lead to a lack of strominess and precipitation, leading to a continuation of the dry pattern we are in. So instead of posting in the thread I started before yours: You start your own instead and put a reply in mine with a link to your thread? Mature. Weenies crack me up. Enjoy kid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 So instead of posting in the thread I started before yours: http://www.americanw...nd-discussions/ You start your own instead and put a reply in mine with a link to your thread? Mature. Weenies crack me up. Enjoy kid! is there something i'm missing here? he started his thread a few days ago. you started your thread today. december off to a controversial start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Hi All: Its getting close to December so I felt that I should post my first monthly thread. The pattern we are going into seems to be with us until at least December 20th. We may have an occasional snow shower and cold period. With a pacific airmass overspreading the CONUS any polar airmass will rapidly modify, preventing any arctic outbreaks from occurring. Additionally, the lack of a temperature gradient and a northerly polar jet will tend to lead to a lack of strominess and precipitation, leading to a continuation of the dry pattern we are in. Hopefully the pacific dominated pattern may be breaking down prior to the date you referenced....overnight euro and 6z gfs show some signs of hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 This might be partly my fault, I didn't see one near the top of the topic listing so I figured no one had made one. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 A mild start to winter this year isn't such a bad thing considering that so many people still don't have their heat back yet in the heavily damaged flood zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Euro is secs/mecs 228 on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Only up to 40, chillier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Still below freezing here.. Currently 30.8/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Yea today is pretty cold. Much cooler than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Yea today is pretty cold. Much cooler than forecast. High was 42. Forecasted high was near 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 So instead of posting in the thread I started before yours: You start your own instead and put a reply in mine with a link to your thread? Mature. Weenies crack me up. Enjoy kid! ?????I'm sorry if I offended you but I did start my thread before you, two days before you in fact. Read the time stamp before posting stuff like this because I take name calling as a personal attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 Reached a high of 40F with a NE wind today. When is the three day mini-torch supposed to start? Later Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I swear I saw a few stray snowflakes today around noon up in Harlem. Apparently Harlem was snow for several hours on Tuesday as well, but Chelsea was almost all rain besides a 15 minute period when it was mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Ya on 114th st it was snow from about 930 on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Ya on 114th st it was snow from about 930 on Yeah, there was an extended period of snow at Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Ya lol I was at an interview at st Luke's and was watching the snow fall all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Can`t sleep ..... IMO , If there is a system that comes out the SE next week , it should go up West ofthe mountians. Any cold that gets into the east in the next 15 days will be of the - in and out variety , as the main trough axis seems to get pulled back just as it gets to the coast . This pattern is driven by the EPO and as long as it is its POS phase it argues for SE ridging . My real fear is once the EPO goes NEG the cold that gets released gets dumped into the West first and " thats another week or 2 long pattern " and now that takes you into the 3 rd and 4 th week of Dec , and by that time its likely a lock for an above normal DEC temp wise . Patterns EVOLVE , they dont change on a dime , so be careful forecasting a drastic change to winter because a models 3 and 4 week 500 MB Ensembles show it . Typical GFS error is to dump a trough into the east hr 288 and beyond on almost every operation run . So when the pattern does change " this is not last year " I just dont think its preceeded by a snowstorm ALA the Euro and I dont think it starts Day 10 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 All the really cold air is going to continue to be locked up near Alaska until we see some type of a pattern change in the Pacific. http://pafg.arh.noaa...AFG&type=public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I lost the possible storm between 216hr and 240hr on the free 00z Euro. Does anybody have a description of the hours in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I lost the possible storm between 216hr and 240hr on the free 00z Euro. Does anybody have a description of the hours in between? It runs inland near 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Some reasonably cold air starting to build in Canada; Churchill, Manitoba @ -13 F at 11:00 AM local time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 A rather underwhelming 45F in Port Jefferson. Broken sky and Dickens Festival still make nice, but no mid 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I was expecting today to be quite a bit warmer than it actually is. Only about 48 Degrees IMBY so far for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Check out the 12z ECMWF 500 mb Height anomalies. Not a bad look to this particular frame at all. Ridging in the pacific and a west based -NAO ridge, all this with cold air dumping into almost the entire CONUS. This would be around the date that many meteorologists have suggested a pattern change to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Check out the 12z ECMWF 500 mb Height anomalies. Not a bad look to this particular frame at all. Ridging in the pacific and a west based -NAO ridge, all this with cold air dumping into almost the entire CONUS. This would be around the date that many meteorologists have suggested a pattern change to occur. Am I the only one that is hesitant and somewhat traumatized by last winters continues talk of pattern changes? I used to be very bullish in 9/10 10/11 but last winter crushed that unreasonable attitude. I am all about a West based -NAO lets hope it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Am I the only one that is hesitant and somewhat traumatized by last winters continues talk of pattern changes? I used to be very bullish in 9/10 10/11 but last winter crushed that unreasonable attitude. I am all about a West based -NAO lets hope it plays out. It seems like pattern changes only fit into two categories of either delayed but not denied or completely denied. 2006-2007 and 2005-2006 were the former and last year and 2007-2008 the later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Am I the only one that is hesitant and somewhat traumatized by last winters continues talk of pattern changes? I used to be very bullish in 9/10 10/11 but last winter crushed that unreasonable attitude. I am all about a West based -NAO lets hope it plays out. I think alot of us will feel better when these changes are modeled 5 days out rather than 10+ days. Last year the Op GFS kept showing promise in the 10-15 day range. But at this point, its better than no change in sight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I think alot of us will feel better when these changes are modeled 5 days out rather than 10+ days. Last year the Op GFS kept showing promise in the 10-15 day range. But at this point, its better than no change in sight... If the Euro ensembles start showing improvement in the 6-10 day then maybe we will have something to hang out hat on. It continues to hold onto the +EPO vortex through the next 10 days keeping the cold locked up in Alaska and nearby Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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