Geos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 DLL - What Wiswx wrote above and... The lake effect usually stays within 15 miles of the lake. ENE winds are good for multiple bands with moderate snow. It's the NNE, NE winds coupled with light off shore winds that set the stage for converging winds and a single large band. 12/25/10 was a text book example of that. Usually in those single band solutions the snow doesn't fall more then 10 miles at most inland. Racine I would say sees the most LES since they stick out into the lake a little more and can catch a little extra from bands hugging the shoreline. Of course the lake effect chances increase as you work down through IL and then IN. Added: Waukesha and Washington Counties are pretty much the only inland counties that can catch the LES - since Ozaukee and Milwaukee Counties are narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well I guess we did have a lake effect event within the last two years: http://stormchasingfever.com/news/viewnews.php?id=44 Looks like almost exactly two years ago to the date in fact. I must not have remembered this one as well, but it shows the isolated nature of lake effect snow on this side of the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 That is pretty cool... You would imagine with the lake running warmer then normal this summer/fall that LE would/could be enhanced..if the winds turn in the right direction... Gorgeous day here...would love to be out snowshoeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Lot of real estate covered in snow today... Iowa/WI/MN... Can really make out the lakes/rivers because nothing is frozen up yet. from this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 That's an awesome satellite shot with the river valley's pronounced like that. And the bluffs. Going to save that image! Cloudy now with 24°. Still brisk winds. DLL- Yeah the warmer lake would provide better Delta T values for LES. When conditions are optimal, 30-35dbz on radar is like white out conditions. Couple inches per hour easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well I guess we did have a lake effect event within the last two years: http://stormchasingf...wnews.php?id=44 Looks like almost exactly two years ago to the date in fact. I must not have remembered this one as well, but it shows the isolated nature of lake effect snow on this side of the shore. Good thing you don't remember it.. I think that was the event that cut me off from radar gawking during a event. I thought you weren't going to look or post on the board until Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Another event that looked good: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/?n=010710_snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The overall synoptic setup is pretty favorable for lake effect but soundings from next week show plenty of dry air from 850-700mb plus delta T's seem to be a bit on the low side. I am going to dig around a little bit and try to find some more lake effect snow events over the past 10 years on this side of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 As far as lake effect potential on the western side of Lake Michigan, inversion heights seemed pretty low on the GFS forecast soundings when I looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The overall synoptic setup is pretty favorable for lake effect but soundings from next week show plenty of dry air from 850-700mb plus delta T's seem to be a bit on the low side. I am going to dig around a little bit and try to find some more lake effect snow events over the past 10 years on this side of the lake. If we could keep the first 7500 feet relatively moist, it would be pretty good. Need to moisten it up a bit at 850mb. (~5000ft) Nice read > http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/lot/severe/SouthernLakeMichiganLES.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 As far as lake effect potential on the western side of Lake Michigan, inversion heights seemed pretty low on the GFS forecast soundings when I looked. LOT montioned this in their morning AFD... HOWEVER...ANOTHER ISSUE MAY CROP UP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. IT APPEARS THAT THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 16 TO 17 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS GOOD. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...WHICH DOES NOT GO WELL FOR INVERSION HEIGHTS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK TO ONLY ALLOW FOR INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 6500 FEET AGL. THIS DOES NOT GET WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH MEANS THIS IS NOT THE BEST SETUP FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THERE CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS WITH THE OPTIMAL NORTHEASTERN FETCH. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 As far as lake effect potential on the western side of Lake Michigan, inversion heights seemed pretty low on the GFS forecast soundings when I looked. Yup. The depth of the cold air is too shallow. Obviously things will change but as of now I cant see anything more than some light snow. Now if we can get the inversion to around 750-700mb, then we are looking a more significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 19 °F and clear skies, looks like single digits tonight. Going to be a battle to keep the apartment reasonably warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yup. The depth of the cold air is too shallow. Obviously things will change but as of now I cant see anything more than some light snow. Now if we can get the inversion to around 750-700mb, then we are looking a more significant event. Well we have something else to keep an eye on! Hopefully the increased snow cover can build up the cold air dome more. 700mb ≈ 10,000ft 750mb ≈ 8,884ft 800mb ≈ 6,667ft So if we could get the inversion above 9000 ft that would be great. That 1/7-8/2010 event put down 8.8" here. Kind of forgot about that event. --- Down to 20° with clear skies. Snow didn't go anywhere today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Not a cloud in the sky all day today. Crystal clear, Canadian blue skies. Was very bright out there with all the fresh snow cover. Been so cloudy lately it was a pretty dramatic change. Even with all of the sun the snow hasn't melted at all. Even some area roads are still ice and snow covered. Should make a run at zero tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The first official day of winter was the wintriest day weve seen here in nearly 10 months, from the blowing, swirling snow to the steel skies. Was just outside and the billowy overcast night sky is very dark in contrast to the light coat of fresh white on the ground, and the wind is howling. Long live winter...and give me LOTS MORE please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Cyclone- Even Des Moines only managed 21F... we had 22F here, but not much in the way of melting...just some dripping off the roof, on the south facing side. Wow... Sparta is at 5F right now.. 15F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Down to 18.7°/15° here. Wind chill around 7°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Sparta is at 1F... down to 13F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Down to 11 here. Might not make it to zero but should go deep into the single digits for the first time. The moon is really bright tonight with the lack of haze/clouds. Visibility is about as good as it could possibly ever get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 About 16° here now. Forecast dropped a couple degrees. Expecting near 11° now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah... can tell the airmass isn't that cold, because everything is there (clear/calm/deep snow) for lows to plummet. I've got 11F here...Sparta showing 0F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah... can tell the airmass isn't that cold, because everything is there (clear/calm/deep snow) for lows to plummet. I've got 11F here...Sparta showing 0F. Yeah for mid-late Dec standards this airmass isn't very impressive, but definitely the coldest of the season so far for many of us in the region. IIRC we only dipped below zero a few times last season, which is a far cry from many of the recent seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The low here in La Crosse last winter was I believe -12F...but I know areas higher up (on the bluffs) only dropped around 0F for winter lows...it really was very mild... La Crosse averages 26 nights below 0F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 skiff of snow on the ground. Looks like a few tenths fell overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 15° with clear skies at IND this morning. Meanwhile, cloudy and 28° at FWA. I would guess that IND will have a better diurnal rise today. SSC, congrats on the skiff. Better than nothing I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The world didn't end, just the constant torch.... This was the first day of winter and finially felt and looked like it. Glad to see nome normal temps and they seem to get even colder near the end of the month. Ended up with about 2" in the back yard and lots of drifting considering the amount of snow which fell. Even got a Christmas bonus salting in. Ready for ther next round!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 4 *F here on planet Hoff, the sun's out at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Turtle- Probably having dreams of South Beach with temps like those (although the cold front blew through S FL yesterday dropping temps back into the 60Fs in Ft Lauderdale)... 7F here right now... Sparta was at -6F this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS shows subzero temps next week here... Temps warming by late next week and then plunging hard after the new year... Which is usually a good time for very cold air around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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