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Potential major phasing event this weekend


forkyfork

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So what's the most likely scenario, the trough and the tropical system remain separate entities, no phase, tropical system goes out to sea harmlessly while trough moves in? I assume that's what climatology would dictate.

Of course. Otherwise we'd be getting phased solutions verifying constantly. Not that it can't happen, but the odds are against such a devastating scenario from occurring like what was on models a couple runs ago.

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Of course. Otherwise we'd be getting phased solutions verifying constantly. Not that it can't happen, but the odds are against such a devastating scenario from occurring like what was on models a couple runs ago.

True, that's why events like The Perfect Storm are so rare. I remember something similar with Hurricane Wilma/Alpha and an incoming trough. Weren't all those entities forecast to phase or partially phase at one point?

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This scenario is much less disastrous for the NYC metro since the winds would be primarily N-NE as is the case in most strong winter storms...the problem with the storm backing into the MA is that less common strong E-SE wind here which the trees are much less accustomed to which results in alot more damage as we saw in Irene and the 3/10 storm.

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This scenario is much less disastrous for the NYC metro since the winds would be primarily N-NE as is the case in most strong winter storms...the problem with the storm backing into the MA is that less common strong E-SE wind here which the trees are much less accustomed to which results in alot more damage as we saw in Irene and the 3/10 storm.

Strongly agree...these are still fantasy solutions but a storm of this magnitude cutting into NJ like the GGEM suggests is a nightmare solution for NYC and Long Island.

Although we could see 80mph North winds if the Euro is right :lol:

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Exactly how horrific could the damage be with a massive storm near the coast at 930 mb, I don't think any other past storm even came close including notables like Ash Wednesday, Perfect Storm, December 1992 nor'easter, April 2007.

In fantasy land the GGEM would cause significant damage and the Euro would probably be a memorable storm as well with less severe damage and the strongest north-based winds you'll see in 100 years.

I also have an equal chance of winning the lottery tomorrow morning.

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In fantasy land the GGEM would cause significant damage and the Euro would probably be a memorable storm as well with less severe damage and the strongest north-based winds you'll see in 100 years.

I also have an equal chance of winning the lottery tomorrow morning.

The problem I see with the whole scenario is the overall tropical environment down by the Bahamas and Cuba now not being great, and the storm system not exactly moving that fast from the Bahamas to off the Mid-Atlantic, at this time of year the water temps are alot less favorable once you get north than they were just 2 weeks or even 4 weeks ago. Its much like the difference in how easy it is to get a coastal snowstorm here on 12/7 vs on 11/27.

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The problem I see with the whole scenario is the overall tropical environment down by the Bahamas and Cuba now not being great, and the storm system not exactly moving that fast from the Bahamas to off the Mid-Atlantic, at this time of year the water temps are alot less favorable once you get north than they were just 2 weeks or even 4 weeks ago. Its much like the difference in how easy it is to get a coastal snowstorm here on 12/7 vs on 11/27.

yes but I dont think people are expecting a warm core storm this far north, it would be some subtropical hybrid.

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Exactly how horrific could the damage be with a massive storm near the coast at 930 mb, I don't think any other past storm even came close including notables like Ash Wednesday, Perfect Storm, December 1992 nor'easter, April 2007.

I really really really think GGEM and Euro are overdoing the SLP...not that it wouldn't still be a wickedly deep storm

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I really really really think GGEM and Euro are overdoing the SLP...not that it wouldn't still be a wickedly deep storm

Even if you increase the pressure by 20 mb, you are still looking at an intensity rivaling Octobomb in surface pressure, which is insane.

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Have to say, I've never really seen this much discussion about such a long-range threat amongst the public and the media. It's sort of ominous.

I remember March of 1993. Models weren't very sophisticated as they are now and a triple phase was the consensus about 5 days out. There was a lot of media buzz about it then.

For a sub 940mb hybrid system at that location it would be historic and would probably rival some of the strongest Atlantic hybrid storms ever recorded.

The trouble is in March of 1993 there was complete model consensus. Right now there isn't any real model consensus and the outliers are producing some really strange anomalies. I've seen some fantasy solutions at long range but this takes the cake for this kind of situation.

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I would not hang my hat on any one model solution. If I remember correctly, per the Dr. Robert Hart presentation on transitioning tropical cyclones that was posted about a month ago around the anniversary of the 1938 hurricane, these types of storms are notoriously unpredictable, both in terms of motion (will it hook back to the NW?) and forward speed (usually not fast enough, sometimes on the order of 12-18 hours). Throw in a blocked pattern, the ECMWF propensity to over-phase tropical systems with mid-latitude troughs and the GFS obviously not giving the blocking pattern enough credit, and things are even more complicated. All cards for me are still on the table...most certain thing is that coastal flooding may occur along a big stretch of the coast no thanks to the full moon of the 29th.

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The Euro ensemble mean is still east of the OP, but looks a little more defined with an Eastern

New England/ Maritimes landfall. The GFS and GEFS should trend west next 48 hrs.

the minutiae matters in an event like this. the ensemble mean may show a maritimes hit, but subtle differences in timing, s/w amplitude, etc could mean a phased, nw curving storm to a kick out to sea by one or more s/w's. the main player at the moment with regard to direct interaction with sandy is the s/w modeled to be over the great lakes saturday. the gfs and euro both have gotten stronger with this feature, and this pushes sandy more northward (and out to sea on the gfs) as well as inhibits the next s/w from amplifying sooner and phasing with the tc. this system is part of a complicated trough which slowly pushes east from the west coast, and we know how notorious these pacific s/w's can be.

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