Sundog Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 So what's the most likely scenario, the trough and the tropical system remain separate entities, no phase, tropical system goes out to sea harmlessly while trough moves in? I assume that's what climatology would dictate. Of course. Otherwise we'd be getting phased solutions verifying constantly. Not that it can't happen, but the odds are against such a devastating scenario from occurring like what was on models a couple runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 927.8mb off the East Coast on the ECMWF... I think i've seen it all now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 On the weatherbell model page I have it down to 927.8 at hr216, moving NW near the BM. 850mb winds ~80kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Goes right over Boston by 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Of course. Otherwise we'd be getting phased solutions verifying constantly. Not that it can't happen, but the odds are against such a devastating scenario from occurring like what was on models a couple runs ago. True, that's why events like The Perfect Storm are so rare. I remember something similar with Hurricane Wilma/Alpha and an incoming trough. Weren't all those entities forecast to phase or partially phase at one point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This scenario is much less disastrous for the NYC metro since the winds would be primarily N-NE as is the case in most strong winter storms...the problem with the storm backing into the MA is that less common strong E-SE wind here which the trees are much less accustomed to which results in alot more damage as we saw in Irene and the 3/10 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This scenario is much less disastrous for the NYC metro since the winds would be primarily N-NE as is the case in most strong winter storms...the problem with the storm backing into the MA is that less common strong E-SE wind here which the trees are much less accustomed to which results in alot more damage as we saw in Irene and the 3/10 storm. Strongly agree...these are still fantasy solutions but a storm of this magnitude cutting into NJ like the GGEM suggests is a nightmare solution for NYC and Long Island. Although we could see 80mph North winds if the Euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Exactly how horrific could the damage be with a massive storm near the coast at 930 mb, I don't think any other past storm even came close including notables like Ash Wednesday, Perfect Storm, December 1992 nor'easter, April 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Strongly agree...these are still fantasy solutions but a storm of this magnitude cutting into NJ like the GGEM suggests is a nightmare solution for NYC and Long Island. Although we could see 80mph North winds if the Euro is right where is the 850 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Exactly how horrific could the damage be with a massive storm near the coast at 930 mb, I don't think any other past storm even came close including notables like Ash Wednesday, Perfect Storm, December 1992 nor'easter, April 2007. In fantasy land the GGEM would cause significant damage and the Euro would probably be a memorable storm as well with less severe damage and the strongest north-based winds you'll see in 100 years. I also have an equal chance of winning the lottery tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 In fantasy land the GGEM would cause significant damage and the Euro would probably be a memorable storm as well with less severe damage and the strongest north-based winds you'll see in 100 years. I also have an equal chance of winning the lottery tomorrow morning. The problem I see with the whole scenario is the overall tropical environment down by the Bahamas and Cuba now not being great, and the storm system not exactly moving that fast from the Bahamas to off the Mid-Atlantic, at this time of year the water temps are alot less favorable once you get north than they were just 2 weeks or even 4 weeks ago. Its much like the difference in how easy it is to get a coastal snowstorm here on 12/7 vs on 11/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The problem I see with the whole scenario is the overall tropical environment down by the Bahamas and Cuba now not being great, and the storm system not exactly moving that fast from the Bahamas to off the Mid-Atlantic, at this time of year the water temps are alot less favorable once you get north than they were just 2 weeks or even 4 weeks ago. Its much like the difference in how easy it is to get a coastal snowstorm here on 12/7 vs on 11/27. yes but I dont think people are expecting a warm core storm this far north, it would be some subtropical hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Given how bland things have been since the late October snow event last year, it's kind of nice to see all this action on the models even if the likelihood of anything close to what they've shown is nearly nil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 yes but I dont think people are expecting a warm core storm this far north, it would be some subtropical hybrid. Wonder what the public would refer to it as? Would the TWC name it if it had the potential to deliver heavy mountain snows, would they give it their own ridiculous name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Exactly how horrific could the damage be with a massive storm near the coast at 930 mb, I don't think any other past storm even came close including notables like Ash Wednesday, Perfect Storm, December 1992 nor'easter, April 2007. I really really really think GGEM and Euro are overdoing the SLP...not that it wouldn't still be a wickedly deep storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I really really really think GGEM and Euro are overdoing the SLP...not that it wouldn't still be a wickedly deep storm Even if you increase the pressure by 20 mb, you are still looking at an intensity rivaling Octobomb in surface pressure, which is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Have to say, I've never really seen this much discussion about such a long-range threat amongst the public and the media. It's sort of ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The Euro ensemble mean is still east of the OP, but looks a little more defined with an Eastern New England/ Maritimes landfall. The GFS and GEFS should trend west next 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Have to say, I've never really seen this much discussion about such a long-range threat amongst the public and the media. It's sort of ominous. I remember March of 1993. Models weren't very sophisticated as they are now and a triple phase was the consensus about 5 days out. There was a lot of media buzz about it then. For a sub 940mb hybrid system at that location it would be historic and would probably rival some of the strongest Atlantic hybrid storms ever recorded. The trouble is in March of 1993 there was complete model consensus. Right now there isn't any real model consensus and the outliers are producing some really strange anomalies. I've seen some fantasy solutions at long range but this takes the cake for this kind of situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I would not hang my hat on any one model solution. If I remember correctly, per the Dr. Robert Hart presentation on transitioning tropical cyclones that was posted about a month ago around the anniversary of the 1938 hurricane, these types of storms are notoriously unpredictable, both in terms of motion (will it hook back to the NW?) and forward speed (usually not fast enough, sometimes on the order of 12-18 hours). Throw in a blocked pattern, the ECMWF propensity to over-phase tropical systems with mid-latitude troughs and the GFS obviously not giving the blocking pattern enough credit, and things are even more complicated. All cards for me are still on the table...most certain thing is that coastal flooding may occur along a big stretch of the coast no thanks to the full moon of the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 We have a Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 The Euro ensemble mean is still east of the OP, but looks a little more defined with an Eastern New England/ Maritimes landfall. The GFS and GEFS should trend west next 48 hrs. the minutiae matters in an event like this. the ensemble mean may show a maritimes hit, but subtle differences in timing, s/w amplitude, etc could mean a phased, nw curving storm to a kick out to sea by one or more s/w's. the main player at the moment with regard to direct interaction with sandy is the s/w modeled to be over the great lakes saturday. the gfs and euro both have gotten stronger with this feature, and this pushes sandy more northward (and out to sea on the gfs) as well as inhibits the next s/w from amplifying sooner and phasing with the tc. this system is part of a complicated trough which slowly pushes east from the west coast, and we know how notorious these pacific s/w's can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Gfs ensembles http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_ensmodel.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The GFS is even less amplified with the ridge on the West Coast than the 12z run. Seems to have a completely different orientation of the trough and perturbations within it, though, so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Throgh 147, the H5 vort of sandy is in the same position as the 12z, just a bit stronger.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The conus flow is almost west to east ..l not much amplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Hr 156: Center making closest approach to Bermuda ~50 mi south of the island rapidly moving to the ene OTS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Very climo track on the gfs and the most likely outcome IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The 18z GEFS and the Euro ENS are very close with the trough in the East at 168 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Very climo track on the gfs and the most likely outcome IMO Except that this an a-climatological situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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