wxdudemike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0z NAM is a bit too much of a shift south. Hoping it goes back north a little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Personally, I don't see how models are showing 6"+ around Dayton and then everything hitting a wall for Columbus and east. I just don't see that happening with the way this system is moving. The WTOD may make some appearance, but I don't think it'll be a matter of no or little precipitation around. I still think 4-6" is a good bet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Personally, I don't see how models are showing 6"+ around Dayton and then everything hitting a wall for Columbus and east. I just don't see that happening with the way this system is moving. The WTOD may make some appearance, but I don't think it'll be a matter of no or little precipitation around. I still think 4-6" is a good bet at this point. I'm guessing it has to do with the timing of the transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm guessing it has to do with the timing of the transfer? Yeah, but for the snow maps to verify as shown, there would have to be a bad transfer timing combined with WTOD, which is possible, but I'm still not sure how the snow goes from 6-8" in Dayton to almost nothing 60 miles to the east in a westward-moving storm. Never seen that before, or at least not something that's verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My worry is the timing of the event - daylight hours in March. It may be difficult with marginal temps for accumulating snow. In March 2008 most of that event was at night and we were colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My worry is the timing of the event - daylight hours in March. It may be difficult with marginal temps for accumulating snow. In March 2008 most of that event was at night and we were colder. Correct me if I'm wrong, but most of the precip is supposed to fall after 7pm, correct? That would be after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What a cluster from ILN. They have 2-4" of snow in their area forecast for the CMH area yet they have WSW's up still? They also maintain 4-8" in their WSW message that, again, includes CMH. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Correct me if I'm wrong, but most of the precip is supposed to fall after 7pm, correct? That would be after sunset. It looks to start out as rain during the day and change over to snow later this evening, at least that's what appears to be the case. Right now it's anyone's guess how this will play out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Be prepared central Ohioans...this could be one hell of a frustrating wild evening. if RAP is correct, CMH will be about the last area to changeover. On the good side, it will be a pretty violent crash of the 850's and mod to heavy rain will probably switch immediately to heavy snow. Million dollar question is when and how long? Interestingly the RUC strengthens the low to 995 over Athens OH. If I had to make a guess, I'd go with 2-3" of cement falling in about a 3 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Be prepared central Ohioans...this could be one hell of a frustrating wild evening. if RAP is correct, CMH will be about the last area to changeover. On the good side, it will be a pretty violent crash of the 850's and mod to heavy rain will probably switch immediately to heavy snow. Million dollar question is when and how long? Interestingly the RUC strengthens the low to 995 over Athens OH. If I had to make a guess, I'd go with 2-3" of cement falling in about a 3 hour period. I'd prefer the RAP as I believe in that scenario the cold sector precip would hang on longer and I'd imagine heights would crash faster with it being more wound up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like the 12Z NAM took the same step the 6Z GFS did in slowly removing the wall of 8" snowfalls in Dayton and nothing just to the east. West central Ohio and central IN still do the best, but it looks to me like 3-5" makes it to CMH on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looking at the text data, the change to snow happens somewhere between hour 15 and hour 18. The problem is in this period it prints out.41" of qpf! Hard to know how much, if any falls as snow. After that, .28" of qpf falls in the form of snow. So I guess the NAM has 3" for sure, but more possible during that thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looking at the text data, the change to snow happens somewhere between hour 15 and hour 18. The problem is in this period it prints out.41" of qpf! Hard to know how much, if any falls as snow. After that, .28" of qpf falls in the form of snow. So I guess the NAM has 3" for sure, but more possible during that thumping. most models seem to indicate a much later changeover time than what I heard from the local mets, (they are saying around 7pm with heaviest wrapping up around midnite), yet models seem to show the changeover around midnite. Not sure if there is a bias either way. Euro has consistently shown the low moving east across KY, while the RAP is showing the low moving into central OH. That is also causing the progged later changeover. Will be interesting to see which model fails. currently getting sleet with a few flakes right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I am so confused.....NWS has 4-8..have seen 2-4..5-7..3-6..good grief..i say 1.4..i have no clue!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Winter storm warning backed up until 4 pm till 1 pm tomorrow afternoon..next will be a cancel..just my opinion on the cancel!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So basically no one knows what the northern edge will do in northeast Ohio....they should really just say uhh we have no clue, winging it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'd prefer the RAP as I believe in that scenario the cold sector precip would hang on longer and I'd imagine heights would crash faster with it being more wound up. looks like the RAP is starting to correct itself. Trending further southeast with the low and a quicker changeover. Now it's showing the 850 crash around 10pm vs. earlier runs around midnite. I would imagine it will continue the trend....correction. I noticed PIT upgraded Muskingum to a warning with 5-8. Considering they are more susceptable to a later changeover and dryslotting by the transfer, that might bode well for us further west. also: it's snowing/sleeting here in Westerville. I know it's nothing to do with the main show and will eventually go to rain....but I'm still surprised to see flakes at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 sleeting here st 36...lol.. well at least that sounds incourging..se trend is our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 sleeting here st 36...lol.. well at least that sounds incourging..se trend is our friend Yea, I wouldn't really call it a trend. It's more of a correction to the other models. The RAP was taking the surface low to between DAY and CMH at one point...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 not sure who to believe at this point...the snow call goes from 2-8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And it begins (at least over in Indiana), Evansville went from near 50 at noon to 34 & snow at the 3pm obs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And it begins (at least over in Indiana), Evansville went from near 50 at noon to 34 & snow at the 3pm obs! WOW!!!!!!!!!!! Impressive. ILN updated WSW and now says 5-8 instead of 4-8 for this area. Hmmmmm....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Trying to figure out why temp dropped 4 degrees in past hour..no precip yet even...anyone have an answer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 The radar looks pretty good..i really don't believe the rain will last long...best guesses on what we might get from this as far as accumilations...because I have heard it all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The radar looks pretty good..i really don't believe the rain will last long...best guesses on what we might get from this as far as accumilations...because I have heard it all!! Right now, I'm guessing about 4" here in Westerville. Out your way it gets even more tricky....I could see a serious screw job from here to KPIT but I'd go with about 3" where you are which I believe is to the ENE of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Down to 32, sleeting, roads getting slippery. Where are you again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 In Lima, west central ohio.......still sleeting, check that, now freezing rain.....great, just great. Same here too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Some Atlantic moisture heading this way??? http://hint.fm/wind/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Now snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 According to obs, snow now in Cincy and Dayton as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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