trapperman Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Trapperman, where in Minnesota do you live? Def looks like a chance of some backside snow with the midweek system in N/C Minnesota. East central/northern metro. I'll believe it when I see it. Been such a long time since I've seen cold air of this magnitude that it's almost eerie. Waiting for the models to flop and torch us, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 lol. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 East central/northern metro. I'll believe it when I see it. Been such a long time since I've seen cold air of this magnitude that it's almost eerie. Waiting for the models to flop and torch us, lol. I'm sure you're fine up there with regards to the trough. The system will probably give the Minneapolis area a cold rain, with the snow probably limited to the International Falls region and a tad south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 I believe MKX is still doing them until about next week. Madison has had 2 freezes so far, both at 32 °F, so regions around here and west are near the end of growing season for sure but no hard freezes except maybe in some of the valleys, so farmers who used countermeasures around Madison are probably still growing. Towards Lake Michigan there probably hasn't even been a widespread light freeze. There's been a light frost here, two actually. So at least the frost has made it to 4 miles from the lake, maybe 3 miles. Next week no doubt areas right up the shore will see 32°, probably upper 20s here at night. I'm going to make a bold statement and say snow will make it down to the Twin Cities metro - if that system comes true next week. Probably some backlash snow showers for Wausau, Steven's Point, maybe just north of Green Bay also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 It hasn't even dropped below 40 here yet, and this is in one of the coldest locations in Ohio. The long-term average first freezing temperatures occur around October 5. I don't even think we've seen more than patchy frost in the usual low-lying spots. Akron & Mansfield have already had 2 days in the 30s, Toledo has had 3 (low of 35F). This is the first September since 1995 that DTW had two days in the 30s. Light frosts, but certainly no freeze....and thats how it should be. October should be another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Unlike the NWS, TWC has a high of 47F for Friday. Woah, Nellie! I doubt it will verify, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 East central/northern metro. I'll believe it when I see it. Been such a long time since I've seen cold air of this magnitude that it's almost eerie. Waiting for the models to flop and torch us, lol. The last serious early-season cold snap around here (western suburbs of Chicago) was late October 1991, when we had a couple of days with high temps near or slightly below freezing. That's approximately 25-30 degrees below normal. Of course that was in the aftermath of the Halloween storm that destroyed you with snow in MN. We've seen some decent "chilly" outbreaks in October here over the past 10 years...but nothing really significant. When I say "significant", I'm thinking 1.5 or 2 standard deviations below normal...i.e., the 85th-90th percentile of cold days. Of course I'm just going off memory...so I could have missed a cold outbreak or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 The last serious early-season cold snap around here (western suburbs of Chicago) was late October 1991, when we had a couple of days with high temps near or slightly below freezing. That's approximately 25-30 degrees below normal. Of course that was in the aftermath of the Halloween storm that destroyed you with snow in MN. We've seen some decent "chilly" outbreaks in October here over the past 10 years...but nothing really significant. When I say "significant", I'm thinking 1.5 or 2 standard deviations below normal...i.e., the 85th-90th percentile of cold days. Of course I'm just going off memory...so I could have missed a cold outbreak or two. October 6-8th, 2000 was a decent shot of cold air. Highs in the low to mid 40s over NE IL, SE WI. Lows in the mid to upper 20s. What dates covered the October 1991 cold snap? Highs next Wednesday have been taken down here to the mid 70s vs. near 80°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 The last serious early-season cold snap around here (western suburbs of Chicago) was late October 1991, when we had a couple of days with high temps near or slightly below freezing. That's approximately 25-30 degrees below normal. Of course that was in the aftermath of the Halloween storm that destroyed you with snow in MN. Not to butt in, but that cold snap happened in early November 1991. ORD Max/min temps (daily departure) Nov 2: 32/18 (-21) Nov 3: 24/13 (-26) Nov 4: 25/11 (-27) Nov 5: 38/17 (-17) Nov 6: 36/19 (-16) Nov 7: 27/13 (-24) Nov 8: 32/11 (-21) Nov 9: 37/14 (-17) That November was the 14th coldest on record for Chicago. For MBY, LAF max/min temps during that stretch, sans daily departures. Nov 2: 33/24 Nov 3: 25/17 Nov 4: 27/18 Nov 5: 38/19 Nov 6: 39/26 Nov 7: 29/13 Nov 8: 31/10 Nov 9: 39/12 Nov 10: 46/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Read in today's papers that Environment Canada is calling for a warm October with highs in the 20s through the month out here in Southern Ontario. Sounds pleasant, but with the open wounds of last winter still visible anything on the "above normal temp" front still sounds harsh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Read in today's papers that Environment Canada is calling for a warm October with highs in the 20s through the month out here in Southern Ontario. Sounds pleasant, but with the open wounds of last winter still visible anything on the "above normal temp" front still sounds harsh... I'm riding the warm October = following winter being snowy bus really hard. It really hasn't failed since about 1999. And do you have a link for that article? I mean it's one thing to prog a warm October, but it seems kinda out there to be calling for "20s throughout the month" (maybe it was an exaggerated paraphrase on your part?). Avg. high temp in October is probably around 12c. To be calling for +8 or greater departures for most days would be an exceptional amount of warmth. Something most mets would shy away from forecasting (given the high bust potential). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 So much for a torch or even Indian Summer. Right now the next three days look seasonable, then Wednesday a bit above normal in the low 70s. Thereafter, we take the plunge for the second time in two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Not to butt in, but that cold snap happened in early November 1991. ORD Max/min temps (daily departure) Nov 2: 32/18 (-21) Nov 3: 24/13 (-26) Nov 4: 25/11 (-27) Nov 5: 38/17 (-17) Nov 6: 36/19 (-16) Nov 7: 27/13 (-24) Nov 8: 32/11 (-21) Nov 9: 37/14 (-17) That November was the 14th coldest on record for Chicago. For MBY, LAF max/min temps during that stretch, sans daily departures. Nov 2: 33/24 Nov 3: 25/17 Nov 4: 27/18 Nov 5: 38/19 Nov 6: 39/26 Nov 7: 29/13 Nov 8: 31/10 Nov 9: 39/12 Nov 10: 46/19 Yes, that's correct...I was a few days off. Thanks for posting the numbers...I never realized how long that cold snap lasted. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 October 6-8th, 2000 was a decent shot of cold air. Highs in the low to mid 40s over NE IL, SE WI. Lows in the mid to upper 20s. What dates covered the October 1991 cold snap? Highs next Wednesday have been taken down here to the mid 70s vs. near 80°. Good catch on the cold in 2000! As ChicagoWx posted below, the 1991 cold snap actually began in early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Looking at the long range do I dare say Flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 12z GFS tones it down a slight bit, but still brings a blast of early season cold with huge negative departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Looking at the long range do I dare say Flurries? Maybe some instability showers that mix with snow/graupel too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 The most irritating thing about this fall involves my lawn. This month is usually a great time to recover the lawn, its been to dry to really recover. I'm going to weed wack the dead grass to the soil and put more Scott's EZ seed down, but I'm worried the upcoming cold will stunt it now. What a terrible year for grass. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Jonger1150; Yu are right it is very dry...trees turining fast now and bushes wilting and with this weekends expected cold; growing season coming to a halt>>> http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/09/frostfreeze-risk-appears-greater-for.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 The new cpc October outlook... L.o.l. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 I'm riding the warm October = following winter being snowy bus really hard. It really hasn't failed since about 1999. And do you have a link for that article? I mean it's one thing to prog a warm October, but it seems kinda out there to be calling for "20s throughout the month" (maybe it was an exaggerated paraphrase on your part?). Avg. high temp in October is probably around 12c. To be calling for +8 or greater departures for most days would be an exceptional amount of warmth. Something most mets would shy away from forecasting (given the high bust potential). “We could still see temperatures above 20 (degrees Celsius),” said David Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment Canada. http://www.therecord.com/news/local/article/809123--warm-days-still-ahead I figured that with the recent temps hovering around 20C, Mr. Phillips statement meant it would continue into October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 What will October and possibly winter bring? http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/09/long-range-models-indicating-strong.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 What will October and possibly winter bring? http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/09/long-range-models-indicating-strong.html Fantastic write up! A must read for Winter lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 What will October and possibly winter bring? http://weatherhistor...ing-strong.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Aurora being sighted all across the Midwest, looks like it's still intensifying too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Pretty sure there's a glow to the north but inconclusive, we need Bz to drop again... http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html Photos rolling in http://spaceweather.com/gallery/index.php?title=aurora&title2=lights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Couple reports on the DTX FB page as aurora sightings as far south as here in AA. Don't see anything here right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 I thought I saw a greenish glow earlier to the north. Was pretty faint though. Edit: There is a very wide halo around the harvest moon tonight - looks awesome! High clouds are now ruining my view to the north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Too much light pollution at the airport to see anything. All I have is the harvest moon to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Warm and sunny days with cool nights really getting the tree's to pop fast. Next weekend should be peak for a lot of SE WI. Holy Hill area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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