H2O Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Heck, I'll be happy with 1" of rain. If we can get a pattern of this going all fall then IMO it is good for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Kenny mentiond it in the Main disco thread, but Day 3 30% from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Starting at 12z the models will start getting wetter...book it....2" by 06z runs 12z NAM now up over 1" for JYO after being around .80 previously.....0z will be around 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Kenny mentiond it in the Main disco thread, but Day 3 30% from SPC yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 yawn You will like it or else Prob just a damaging wind threat... but I was surprised at the 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 12z NAM has some pretty nice looking hodos for Tuesday evening into Tuesday night... 12z GFS a bit more alarming with the hodos, but 12z GFS is more centered around Tuesday afternoon. Even though SBCAPE is forecasted just below 1000 J/KG, 0-6km shear is decent to good at 40kts and both 0-3km SRH and 1km SRH are over 350 m2/s2 at 18z TUES at KIAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 SREF doesn't look half bad for tuesday afternoon and evening in the area. cape sucks but i guess that's to be expected and where it is might be able to squeeze out 1k or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Thread title could use some dates for archive/search purposes... I still like a conditional wind/tor threat for Tuesday, with the early clouds/rain the obvious concern at this point. Oh, and those pesky mid-level lapse rates are crapping it up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Starting at 12z the models will start getting wetter...book it....2" by 06z runs 18z nam pretty freakin wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 18z nam pretty freakin wet this looks about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 The Euro still has 1.5"+ for most of the area except SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 The Euro still has 1.5"+ for most of the area except SE All of your money on the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Tuesday evening rush hour is not going to be pretty if the 00z NAM is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 CAPE is around 500 J/KG but wow... even if nothing comes of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Well...not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 00z NAM drops at least 2" I-95 and west this run... up to 4 inches in SW corner (CHO) of LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 CAPE is around 500 J/KG but wow... even if nothing comes of it Ian would be going crazy if we had last week's instability juxtaposed with wind profiles like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Ian would be going crazy if we had last week's instability juxtaposed with wind profiles like that. I think we all would no matter where we were. Anyway, its prob just eye candy... MLCAPE and SBCAPE are 500 J/KG at best, give or take a 100. 0-6km shear is over 50kts and PWATS over 2".... so i see a wind threat with maybe some iso spin-ups in a line or cluster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I think we all would no matter where we were. Anyway, its prob just eye candy... MLCAPE and SBCAPE are 500 J/KG at best, give or take a 100. 0-6km shear is over 50kts and PWATS over 2".... so i see a wind threat with maybe some iso spin-ups in a line or cluster Yeah, I'm thinking the better threat is towards southern VA into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I'm mostly worried about a.m. mess tho I think it looks a good deal better than it did. Timing is trying to line up very well and the trough positioning is also falling into a historical place. SREF looks quite nice for this range. We won't need much CAPE.. 500 might suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Day 2 will probably be 30% SLGT again IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Day 2 will probably be 30% SLGT again IMO Probably see text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Love events with plenty of lift. I will happily sacrifice the instability. This might be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I'm thinking this shifted south, but with more of a bust potential: SREF sig tor is on the increase: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wind profiles are nuts ahead of the cold front... even the GFS has surface winds with a bit of an easterly component, which has my confidence up a bit. Still gotta watch out for the instability risks, though. Here's the Balitmore area just ahead of the front... similar profile that can be found throughout the greater DC area. 55 kt. 925mb jet is serious business... any sort of convection could mix those winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Can you explain what all of that means, Mark? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wind profiles are nuts ahead of the cold front... even the GFS has surface winds with a bit of an easterly component, which has my confidence up a bit. Still gotta watch out for the instability risks, though. Here's the Balitmore area just ahead of the front... similar profile that can be found throughout the greater DC area. 55 kt. 925mb jet is serious business... any sort of convection could mix those winds down. Yeah areas that happen to get any sort of substantial surface based instability (500 J/kg or higher) would certainly have a potential risk for tornadoes. At worst I think the frontally forced squall line will mix down those winds, again though, the higher the instability the better the potential will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Flood Watch out for most of West Virginia. Either model I look at shows a good shot of rain, 2-3". It has been pretty dry here lately, so we can sure use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Can you explain what all of that means, Mark? Thanks. Easterly winds = winds are backed. Great shear for storm organization. Instability risks = risk of there being no heating, might be some morning garbage in the way. That 55kt low lvl jet means some winds will be strong and pretty easy to mix to surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Can you explain what all of that means, Mark? Thanks. The strong jet at 925mb (50-60+ kts depending on the model you look at) is good for damaging wind potential... even weak convection can mix those kind of wind speeds to the surface. Having a bit of an easterly component to the winds (out of the southeast instead of south or southwest) not only adds more spin to the low-levels of the atmosphere, but it will also help these storms ingest more unstable air and allow storms to have a longer lifespan. Of course, such high winds throughout the column suggest storms will also be moving pretty quickly... mature storms will have a forward speed of 50-60 mph... perhaps faster in some cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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