hm8 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 I freaked out until I saw the temp scale. 1 degree above normal. wow. TORCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 I freaked out until I saw the temp scale. 1 degree above normal. wow. Outside of the arctic, that's what global warming is. Splitting hairs over a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Trends eventually die out too. The longer we go with above normal months, the higher the chance of that string breaking. I expect October to be within 0.5° of normal for most of the subforum area. I'm a believer in the rubber band theory. Hopefully the warmth will last until late November, then that rubber band will snap Tropical in the a**. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 So ready for Fall. Crisp nights, trees turning colors.....a few people joked the drought and early greenup will have trees bare by late September. This of course is not happening, I will go with peak Fall color Oct 15-25 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 So ready for Fall. Crisp nights, trees turning colors.....a few people joked the drought and early greenup will have trees bare by late September. This of course is not happening, I will go with peak Fall color Oct 15-25 here. It's very unlikely, but not impossible if we get some record-breaking cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Peak time for northern Mn should late September to early October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Last year Toronto had its peak foliage around the last weekend in October/first weekend in November, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 4, 2012 Author Share Posted September 4, 2012 New IRI forecast is out for fall. http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2012/aug2012/images/SON12_NAm_temp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 New IRI forecast is out for fall. http://iri.columbia....12_NAm_temp.gif They just copy/pasted last years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 So ready for Fall. Crisp nights, trees turning colors.....a few people joked the drought and early greenup will have trees bare by late September. This of course is not happening, I will go with peak Fall color Oct 15-25 here. FWIW, around here trees are starting to show colors already. Things have been wet, so I'm thinking it's due to the early green up and after effects from the drought that is starting to turn the leaves. Seeing mainly yellow, but also some orange now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Deedler issued his Fall forcast and thoughts. It was an awesome write up. Basically he going for above normal temps and below normal precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 FWIW, around here trees are starting to show colors already. Things have been wet, so I'm thinking it's due to the early green up and after effects from the drought that is starting to turn the leaves. Seeing mainly yellow, but also some orange now. not even close here but it's pretty normal for me to be at least a couple weeks behind my parents out in the sticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 El Nino is basically here, suggesting a more active subtropical jet and increased storminess in general. Also increased warm Pacific air intrusions so we should expect periods of melt during the winter. At the same time there's still good potential for Arctic outbreaks from the increased storminess. It takes awhile for the atmospheric circulation to come into equilibrium with El-Nino so it might be a little while until it becomes noticeable, but it could help us get some good Fall storms. http://www.cpc.ncep....y/ensodisc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 FWIW, around here trees are starting to show colors already. Things have been wet, so I'm thinking it's due to the early green up and after effects from the drought that is starting to turn the leaves. Seeing mainly yellow, but also some orange now. Some trees have started showing color here as well, thats kinda what started the discussions about a very early leaf drop. But make no mistake, the early September color is very spotty....so it will be interesting to see how close my guess is.....going with Oct 15-25 for peak color. Many years lately it seems peak is anywhere from Oct 20-Nov 5 (the latest Ive ever seen was 2007 when peak was like Nov 1-10 with a few stragglers holding on til Nov 15-20). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Deedler issued his Fall forcast and thoughts. It was an awesome write up. Basically he going for above normal temps and below normal precipitation. With salivating hints towards winter http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 With regards to fall color - The main newspaper out of Kenosha, WI posted a good article on the early color showing up in the southeast part of the state. Wisconsin DNR is expecting peak colors as early as the last week in September! They go onto say the trees have have been stressed by the drought, but the recent rains are not enough to prevent a early color show. Trees should fall back into sync if we have a more typical winter and spring - they conclude. It will be something if peak color comes that early and if the trees are bare by the second week of October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Some trees have started showing color here as well, thats kinda what started the discussions about a very early leaf drop. But make no mistake, the early September color is very spotty....so it will be interesting to see how close my guess is.....going with Oct 15-25 for peak color. Many years lately it seems peak is anywhere from Oct 20-Nov 5 (the latest Ive ever seen was 2007 when peak was like Nov 1-10 with a few stragglers holding on til Nov 15-20). Looking good for a nice winter if leaves fall early. 07-08 was cold and snowy. I follow the saying below each fall and it's almost always accurate: When leaves fall early, Fall and Winter will be mild; When leaves fall late, Winter will be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Looking good for a nice winter if leaves fall early. 07-08 was cold and snowy. I follow the saying below each fall and it's almost always accurate: When leaves fall early, Fall and Winter will be mild; When leaves fall late, Winter will be severe. That statement needs evidence to back it up, would be easy to do but a little tedious, just have to compare leaf out dates to the winter avg temperature and snowfall. But I think there's a little something to it, since the later fall happens the more cold air that builds up in the Arctic, so when the cold air dome is finally unleashed it leads to harsher early winter conditions IF the cold air heads towards North America and not Eurasia. I don't think this would work well during a drought year like this either, we know the trees are turning cause of the drought and not cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 12, 2012 Author Share Posted September 12, 2012 October looking nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 You meant this one, didn't you??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 The fun thing about weather - you can pretty much find anything to support what you want... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 The fun thing about weather - you can pretty much find anything to support what you want... LOL. In all honesty, we will all probably get our fair share of warmth in October. Seems to always happen any way you slice it when we get a big cool down in September. I'm comparing this year to 2004, although the big cooldown happened a month earlier. 04 had record lows in the midwest in August and a 15% tornado day in central Minnesota on October 29th... So maybe Tropical and everyone else can share and share alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Looking good for a nice winter if leaves fall early. 07-08 was cold and snowy. I follow the saying below each fall and it's almost always accurate: When leaves fall early, Fall and Winter will be mild; When leaves fall late, Winter will be severe. If squirrels tails are bushy (as they are this year) it will be a harsh winter. i have found this to be true as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 October looking nice! Boy how things change eh Tropical. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/cfsFcst/cfsMonPlot/images/20120912.naT2mMon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Good Lord that is the best post anyone has ever put on this board. let November thru March torch if this happens, I don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 15, 2012 Author Share Posted September 15, 2012 I think he made that map himself! Here is this morning's map! http://www.cpc.ncep....0915.201210.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 15, 2012 Author Share Posted September 15, 2012 That western ridge will move east and the cool weather will take a vacation soon. At least we didn't get that trough in early-mid October which would signify a killing freeze here. I lucked out in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 < :facepalm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 GO AWAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I think he made that map himself! Here is this morning's map! http://www.cpc.ncep....0915.201210.gif It's called "v2" for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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