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August 2012 Obs/Disc


Ellinwood

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So what do we think about Sunday? Too far south for the action like last week?

We definitely won't be in the good stuff, but we might get lucky and have the southern edge of a line of storms work through with the cold front... probably some pre-frontal showers and storms, too.

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Even though in the paper I read this morning that there was only a 20% chance of T-Storms today and the SPC is not even going for a "general" t-storm. I believe that were going to have some popcorn thundershowers today by mid-afternoon. More so towards the foothills with mountain circulations.

IAD.gif

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Even though in the paper I read this morning that there was only a 20% chance of T-Storms today and the SPC is not even going for a "general" t-storm. I believe that were going to have some popcorn thundershowers today by mid-afternoon. More so towards the foothills with mountain circulations.

Most of the hi-res models have a storm or two popping around DC/central MD this afternoon, but in the region as a whole I'd say a 20% rain coverage is fair.

EDIT: The forecast soundings on the latest RAP and NAM look pretty dry... 850-700 layer's fairly moist but that's it. Plus it looks like there's a little cap between 600-700mb that holds through the afternoon, which you can see on the IAD sounding.

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Is the mid-atlantic sub forum going to make a separate tropical thread like everyone else? Afterall, it is August now.

:rolleyes:

we need to wait till there's a legit 360 hr threat

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

255 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

SOUTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

NORTHWESTERN CALVERT COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 252 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR DUNKIRK...

OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF UPPER MARLBORO...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS

AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

DUNKIRK...

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When I saw that sounding this morning from LWX and saw the RAP with the similar conditions upstream. I knew we were going to at least get something... So much for "white" risk :lol:

splitting hairs a bit.. low coverage -- lwx overwarns

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