Hailstorm Posted July 27, 2012 Author Share Posted July 27, 2012 Well technically, I think the 45% means 45% or greater, but not more than 60%, since that is the next criterion, as 50 and 55% are not used. But with that said, mapgirl's map (pun intended) clearly shows that even under that criteria, the mod risk was clearly warranted. Only the extreme edges of the mod risk were not within the black line. The concentration of wind reports was very high for the most part, and fit the exact nature of a LEWP. The only thing that baffles me is that out of the nearly 450 wind reports, only 3 were of significant intensity (>74 MPH), despite the large swath of hatching. I still think the SPC did a good job though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 It's nearly impossible to predict, well in advance, where the LEWP will concave (bow in) or convex (bow out). Everyone in the mod risk area had a decent enough chance to be within the convex area so that the mod risk/45% probabilities were issued. The probabilistic forecast addresses the uncertainty with respect to concave and convex of LEWPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Well, take this for what it is worth, but here is the damage indicators page fro the new EF Scale for tornadoes. Obviously this is supposed to be for tornadic damage but it provides damage indicators for various structures, the degree of damage, and the expected strength of the winds. Check it out. http://www.spc.noaa....e/ef-scale.html For softwood trees (oak, maple, etc), 1-3" diameter branches could be brought down by winds of approximately 70 mph, and could be completely uprooted by winds of about 85 mph. Now obviously dead trees could be uprooted/broken more easily and I'm sure a wet ground could contribute as well, but wind speeds to cause damage to trees in general may be stronger than you'd expect. oaks and maples are hardwoods. Conifers are softwoods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 No, basically you had a 40 page thread because most of you are weenies who hump anything that shows something exciting for you. The Trials is complaining today because yesterday he was scared and looked silly while saying it. SNE goes through threads like this all the time, but instead of whining over the lack of weather, they break it down to why it didn't happen that way. Perhaps you all should learn to appreciate what you do get, learn when it is necessary and give applaud to those who deal with difficult weather systems and their forecasts instead of crying because your backyard didn't get a wind gust of 58mph or more. Good, so post there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I think the biggest bust here was the Tornado Watch. Not so much the Watch in general, but how far north and east it was posted for. The Capital Region of NY and western Mass? Come on, almost all of the data suggested the worst storms would be much further SW. I do give SPC credit for at least having the only confirmed tornado actually fall in that box. The problem in CT was, we were highlighting the severe potential for SW CT, but we had a lot of people complain and say that NW CT was going to get hit, because of the Tornado Watch. With that said, 60% of the northeast chunk of the Watch verified with NO storm damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 The only thing that baffles me is that out of the nearly 450 wind reports, only 3 were of significant intensity (>74 MPH), despite the large swath of hatching. I still think the SPC did a good job though. I was talking with forky about it. Probably that the EML was bootleg and located very low so mid-level lapse rates kinda sucked. Also, development wasn't explosive...there was lift everywhere instead of a strong shortwave coming in the afternoon breaking a cap and going to town. Also, derechoes are actually nocturnally favored. It is more difficult to get a cold pool to coalesce during the day and the LLJ is usually weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I'm sorry we are not as good as the SNE'ers. Maybe one day we can approach their awesomeness. However you're talking to the wrong person. I hate severe weather. I couldn't be happier with the results. Agreed. I for one am not a weenie for any weather, especially severe. We all know who the weenies on the board are they are by no means representative of the board. Maybe you shouldnt judge a board's posters unless you know them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Good, so post there. I'm actually from Md, you know where we got that awesome derecho last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 No, basically you had a 40 page thread because most of you are weenies who hump anything that shows something exciting for you. The Trials is complaining today because yesterday he was scared and looked silly while saying it. SNE goes through threads like this all the time, but instead of whining over the lack of weather, they break it down to why it didn't happen that way. Perhaps you all should learn to appreciate what you do get, learn when it is necessary and give applaud to those who deal with difficult weather systems and their forecasts instead of crying because your backyard didn't get a wind gust of 58mph or more. I'm really disappointed in this post. First of all trials said he was scared because his parents live in the area where the bow echo that crossed into NY from NE PA. Second, practically the entire discussion was classy, analytical, and very informative. You are insulting many knowledgeable posters and mets that participated in that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I'm actually from Md, you know where we got that awesome derecho last month. i know i googled 21030...my buddy from WV was calling me to warn about our incoming derecho, he said the area would be in chaos, worse than irene...hes a pro ATC and knows his ****, was very surprised about the storms dying in intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I'm actually from Md, you know where we got that awesome derecho last month. Sundog actively roots against severe weather. But he gets hit the hardest in this area. Its funny. 2 out of the 3 tornadoes of the September 2010 severe outbreak were within 3 miles of him and 1 cut a path down his street. The 125mph macroburst also nailed his area, aside from the embedded tornado. His neighborhood had dozens and dozens of trees down. Cars destroyed, houses damaged, transformer explosions, etc. It's like someone who hates snow, always jackpotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 is it wrong that i would seriously consider uprooting my family and moving from the nyc area if this was my local weather forum? it would be a tough one to explain to my wife and kids, especially if the kids had started school, but i'd almost have to consider it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I'm really disappointed in this post. First of all trials said he was scared because his parents live in the area where the bow echo that crossed into NY from NE PA. Second, practically the entire discussion was classy, analytical, and very informative. You are insulting many knowledgeable posters and mets that participated in that thread. Agree. We had fabulous posters and mets in that 40 page thread with amazing posts. And we have been actively discussing why the system weakened. Even at the minute it was occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 is it wrong that i would seriously consider uprooting my family and moving from the nyc area if this was my local weather forum? it would be a tough one to explain to my wife and kids, especially if the kids had started school, but i'd almost have to consider it... This is an off weather topic thread. Pretty much a banter thread. No need for a total shot at the whole forum because of this. You are insulting some of the best posters and meteorologists who do a fabulous job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 is it wrong that i would seriously consider uprooting my family and moving from the nyc area if this was my local weather forum? it would be a tough one to explain to my wife and kids, especially if the kids had started school, but i'd almost have to consider it... stop making me feel worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 stop making me feel worse Froky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I'm really disappointed in this post. First of all trials said he was scared because his parents live in the area where the bow echo that crossed into NY from NE PA. Second, practically the entire discussion was classy, analytical, and very informative. You are insulting many knowledgeable posters and mets that participated in that thread. I said most, not all. So if you feel I am insulting everyone in this forum, then perhaps it is you who who feels everyone is a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 This is an off weather topic thread. Pretty much a banter thread. No need for a total shot at the whole forum because of this. You are insulting some of the best posters and meteorologists who do a fabulous job. Yup. During the event most were just posting obs, a few were crying bust midway through, but mainly obs at that point. Board is fantastic during weather events, get a real sense of what conditions to expect in a few minutes. My favorite part to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 This is an off weather topic thread. Pretty much a banter thread. No need for a total shot at the whole forum because of this. You are insulting some of the best posters and meteorologists who do a fabulous job. so you'd go in the "yes, it would be wrong" column stop making me feel worse and you'd go in the "no, it would not be wrong" i'm keeping a tally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I said most, not all. So if you feel I am insulting everyone in this forum, then perhaps it is you who who feels everyone is a weenie. How is it most? Because 3-4 posters out hundreds are disagreeing in this thread? Because Sundog thinks it was a bust, he is a bad poster? Give me a break. Sundog is a great poster and one of the best in all of Americanwx. Just because he is disagreeing in this thread, it doesn't give anyone a right to call him a bad poster or for anyone to call any poster "stupid" or a "moron" as some have done here already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 How is it most? Because 3-4 posters out hundreds are disagreeing in this thread? Because Sundog thinks it was a bust, he is a bad poster? Give me a break. Sundog is a great poster and one of the best in all of Americanwx. Just because he is disagreeing in this thread, it doesn't give anyone a right to call him a bad poster or for anyone to call any poster "stupi" or a "moron" as some have done here already. Did I specifically say Sundog in my post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 is it wrong that i would seriously consider uprooting my family and moving from the nyc area if this was my local weather forum? it would be a tough one to explain to my wife and kids, especially if the kids had started school, but i'd almost have to consider it... Good thing you don't have this problem. Living somewhat close to mdecoy is bad enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 so you'd go in the "yes, it would be wrong" column and you'd go in the "no, it would not be wrong" i'm keeping a tally NYC is the only city that matters on the east coast. When you have 15 million in your immediate metro, some posters will be whacky, myself included. Id rather be in a real city then bumble**** PA anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 NYC is the only city that matters on the east coast. When you have 15 million in your immediate metro, some posters will be whacky, myself included. Id rather be in a real city then bumble**** PA anyday. right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Good thing you don't have this problem. Living somewhat close to mdecoy is bad enough. the smell of fail is noticeable for a 100 mile radius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Did I specifically say Sundog in my post? Well he is only 1 of only 3 or 4 posters that has been arguing this subject today. Knowing sundog, it's insulting that he is being called out by others. Not by you specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 NYC is the only city that matters on the east coast. When you have 15 million in your immediate metro, some posters will be whacky, myself included. is that a yes or no? (for the tally) Id rather be in a real city then bumble**** PA anyday. like Albertson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 right Yup, hes from Pennsylvania. Hows Penn State's football program looking? Seriously, Philly sucks and there is a reason the nyc subforum split off...we are better than any other locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 is that a yes or no? (for the tally) like Albertson? Albertson is 4 miles from the Queens border bud. And Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Well he is only 1 of only 3 or 4 posters that has been arguing this subject today. Knowing sundog, it's insulting that he is being called out by others. Not by you specifically. And again, did I specifically say Sundog in my post? In fact, I am pretty sure I mentioned no names, said "most" (which is not all) and any mention if "you" was a general "you". My apologies if that was too confusing to figure out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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