uncle W Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 the colder the December the greater chances for snow...there are some exceptions like 1989 and 1958...A cold snowy December usually means a snowy winter...1912 is an exception but it did have the most snow ever on Christmas morning...I'm already dreaming of a White Christmas...here are all the White Christmas's in NYC since 1910...snow cover on midnight 12/24... snowfalls that started after am hours 12/25 don't count...1883 probably had the snowiest Christmas with over 6" on the ground and 5 more inches Christmas day...1912 had the most snow on the ground Christmas Eve from an 11.4" snowfall 12/24...... year...snow on ground...dates of storms... since 1910.... 1912.....11".......11.4" 12/24 1914.....trace.......0.6" 12/24.....0.4" 12/21... 1917.......4"..........9.6" 12/12-14.....0.2" 12/17..... 1919.......3"..........2.8" 12/24-25.....1.9" 12/19.....2.1" 12/16-17 1924.....trace.......0.8" 12/24-25 1925.....trace.......0.2" 12/24-25 1929.......1"..........1.4" 12/23 1930.......2"..........3.9" 12/23-24... 1935.....trace.......0.4" 12/23.....0.4" 12/20.....1.6" 12/25-26 1945.......7"..........8.1" 12/19-20...3.2" 12/14...0.6" 12/10 1947.......1"..........2.5" 12/23 1948.......5"........16.0" 12/19-20 1955.......1".........2.7" 12/22 1959.......4"........13.7" 12/21-22 1960.......1"........15.2" 12/11-12.....1.3" 12/19 1961.......6"..........6.2" 12/23-24 1962......trace.......2.7" 12/21-22......0.3" 12/25...rain Christmas night... 1963.......6"..........6.6" 12/23-24......1.4" 12/18.....2.3" 12/12 1966.......7"..........7.1" 12/24-25......1.2" 12/21 1967......trace.......1.0" 12/23....rain Christmas night... 1970......trace.......2.1" 12/21-23 1975......trace.......1.8" 12/22...0.5" 12/25...Rain Christmas night... 1980......trace.......1.0" 12/24...0.6" 12/23 1983.......1"..........1.0" 12/23-24 1993......trace.......trace 12/24-25 1995.......4"..........7.7" 12/19-20..... 1998.......1"..........2.0" 12/23-24 2000......trace.......0.7" 12/20 2002......trace.......trace 12/25...5" 12/25 after morning rain... 2009.......2"........10.9" 12/19-20....rain Christmas night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 the colder the December the greater chances for snow...there are some exceptions like 1989 and 1958...A cold snowy December usually means a snowy winter...1912 is an exception but it did have the most snow ever on Christmas morning...I'm already dreaming of a White Christmas...here are all the White Christmas's in NYC since 1910...snow cover on midnight 12/24... snowfalls that started after am hours 12/25 don't count...1883 probably had the snowiest Christmas with over 6" on the ground and 5 more inches Christmas day...1912 had the most snow on the ground Christmas Eve from an 11.4" snowfall 12/24...... year...snow on ground...dates of storms... since 1910.... 1912.....11".......11.4" 12/24 1914.....trace.......0.6" 12/24.....0.4" 12/21... 1917.......4"..........9.6" 12/12-14.....0.2" 12/17..... 1919.......3"..........2.8" 12/24-25.....1.9" 12/19.....2.1" 12/16-17 1924.....trace.......0.8" 12/24-25 1925.....trace.......0.2" 12/24-25 1929.......1"..........1.4" 12/23 1930.......2"..........3.9" 12/23-24... 1935.....trace.......0.4" 12/23.....0.4" 12/20.....1.6" 12/25-26 1945.......7"..........8.1" 12/19-20...3.2" 12/14...0.6" 12/10 1947.......1"..........2.5" 12/23 1948.......5"........16.0" 12/19-20 1955.......1".........2.7" 12/22 1959.......4"........13.7" 12/21-22 1960.......1"........15.2" 12/11-12.....1.3" 12/19 1961.......6"..........6.2" 12/23-24 1962......trace.......2.7" 12/21-22......0.3" 12/25...rain Christmas night... 1963.......6"..........6.6" 12/23-24......1.4" 12/18.....2.3" 12/12 1966.......7"..........7.1" 12/24-25......1.2" 12/21 1967......trace.......1.0" 12/23....rain Christmas night... 1970......trace.......2.1" 12/21-23 1975......trace.......1.8" 12/22...0.5" 12/25...Rain Christmas night... 1980......trace.......1.0" 12/24...0.6" 12/23 1983.......1"..........1.0" 12/23-24 1993......trace.......trace 12/24-25 1995.......4"..........7.7" 12/19-20..... 1998.......1"..........2.0" 12/23-24 2000......trace.......0.7" 12/20 2002......trace.......trace 12/25...5" 12/25 after morning rain... 2009.......2"........10.9" 12/19-20....rain Christmas night... 2010 was almost as good as having a white Christmas because the the anticipation all day Christmas of the Blizzard that was going to begin within 24 hours on the 26th ...........One thing thatis kind of amazing and long overdue is we haven't had an actual snowstorm in progress Christmas morning in anyones lifetime here ............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 2010 was almost as good as having a white Christmas because the the anticipation all day Christmas of the Blizzard that was going to begin within 24 hours on the 26th ...........One thing thatis kind of amazing and long overdue is we haven't had an actual snowstorm in progress Christmas morning in anyones lifetime here ............ 1966 came close...snow ended around 3am with 7" on the ground...2002 had snow very early in the am hoursb but that changed to rain...1978 had a storm with around an inch and a half of rainfall with temperatures in the mid to upper 30's...There were a few wet flakes mixed in...It started Christmas Evening and ended Christmas morning...North and west did get a heavy wet snow event...Places like Port Jervis had a real White Christmas that year...1962 had light snow 0.3" that started late morning and changed to freezing drizzle and plain drizzle after dark...1975 had snow 0.5" in the afternoon but it changed to rain at night...1985 had a period of wet snow during the day with no accumulation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 2010 was almost as good as having a white Christmas because the the anticipation all day Christmas of the Blizzard that was going to begin within 24 hours on the 26th ...........One thing thatis kind of amazing and long overdue is we haven't had an actual snowstorm in progress Christmas morning in anyones lifetime here ............ Happened up here in 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Happened up here in 2002. Yeap.. 1-2 ft of snow up this way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Yeap.. 1-2 ft of snow up this way.. I was in New Windsor for that one at an elevation of 125 feet or so and within a mile of the Hudson. Here is what I have in my log for 12/25/02: "Started with 1” of snow in the early morning hours. Freezing rain and rain at 9am. Heavy sleet at 11am and snow by 12pm. Heavy snow by 1pm with strong winds until 9pm. Light snow until 11pm. 14” total on the ground." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 October is gonna go out with a bang in terms of warmth. 70's next week. Hopefully November is below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 I was in New Windsor for that one at an elevation of 125 feet or so and within a mile of the Hudson. Here is what I have in my log for 12/25/02: "Started with 1” of snow in the early morning hours. Freezing rain and rain at 9am. Heavy sleet at 11am and snow by 12pm. Heavy snow by 1pm with strong winds until 9pm. Light snow until 11pm. 14” total on the ground." We switched over later than you guys (obviously), but man, when that switched it was incredible to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 We switched over later than you guys (obviously), but man, when that switched it was incredible to watch. Yes it was, it just ripped snow that afternoon into the evening, plastered to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 We switched over later than you guys (obviously), but man, when that switched it was incredible to watch. I was close to the heaviest accumulations for the coastal areas around here. Switched over to heavy wind driven snow around 3:30 and snowed like hell with thunder as well. Got between 7-10 inches in this part of Queens and western Nassau. For a storm that wasn't really supposed to produce anything here it was an amazing day. I learned that day that a rear wheel drive stick shift with performance tires isn't the best mode of transportation with heavy sticky snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Yes it was, it just ripped snow that afternoon into the evening, plastered to everything. 2002 was the last time i really witnessed that much snow and wind in such a short period of time. The boxing day blizzard was nice but i got 14" in SW suffolk in a matter of hours w/thunder, whiteouts etc. I will never forget that christmas night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Yeap.. 1-2 ft of snow up this way.. 5 inches here. Forecast was only for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 NWS updated winter outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/259009469239922688/photo/1/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 NWS updated winter outlook http://www.cpc.ncep....onal.php?lead=2 looks like the GOM will be open for business BUT the above normal precip will not make it very far north - other then that they are just predicting normal temps and precip on average in the east - good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 looks like the GOM will be open for business BUT the above normal precip will not make it very far north - other then that they are just predicting normal temps and precip on average in the east - good luck That's a shock because they usually predict warm temps for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 The SST anomalies in the NATL as pointed out by Steve D are much more favorable for a -NAO as of now than they were last year. I was continually saying last October I was very worried about the negative anomalies south of Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 The SST anomalies in the NATL as pointed out by Steve D are much more favorable for a -NAO as of now than they were last year. I was continually saying last October I was very worried about the negative anomalies south of Greenland. Excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 I saw this in the Climate Change forum: This is wickedly low. The result is a very cold Southern Canada/Northern USA and Very warm parts of the arctic. What were the following winters like when the NAO was this negative in October? Especially toward the end of the month (if that's possible to look up?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 I saw this in the Climate Change forum: What were the following winters like when the NAO was this negative in October? Especially toward the end of the month (if that's possible to look up?) The lower Neg Nao forecasted towards the end of the month will also help build the snow cover on this side of the globe farther south into Canada - right now as shown on the snowcover loop it is not as widespread and south as the opposite side of the globe http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/loop/nhem-1mo-loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 What were the following winters like when the NAO was this negative in October? Especially toward the end of the month (if that's possible to look up?) In terms of -NAO's in October (the whole of the month), if the NAO was less than -1 it agreed the following winter 5/14 times (55-56, 68-69, 97-98, 2002-3, 2009-10) based on using an average for DJF... Years it did not -- 60-61, 68-69, 73-74, 80-81, 81-82, 88-89, 92-93, 03-04, 04-05, 06-07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 In terms of -NAO's in October (the whole of the month), if the NAO was less than -1 it agreed the following winter 5/5 times (55-56, 68-69, 97-98, 2002-3, 2009-10). Interesting that 97-98 is on that list... guess El Nino overpowered it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Interesting that 97-98 is on that list... guess El Nino overpowered it. NAO that winter neutral in J and F...for the winter just -0.23 on the index. December was almost a -1. EDIT: Had to correct my data in my other post. I forgot to take a filter off of excel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Interesting that 97-98 is on that list... guess El Nino overpowered it. I think the AO was strongly negative in 1997-98...97-98 was basically a slightly stronger version of 2009-2010...when you look at how dangerously close the boundary layer and setups were in most of the storms that winter minus 12/20 you see how just a few degrees warmer or an NAO that was not as negative it could have resembled 97-98 alot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I think the AO was strongly negative in 1997-98...97-98 was basically a slightly stronger version of 2009-2010...when you look at how dangerously close the boundary layer and setups were in most of the storms that winter minus 12/20 you see how just a few degrees warmer or an NAO that was not as negative it could have resembled 97-98 alot more. the nao in 2010 was a lot more negative than 1997-98...The -ao was stronger in 2009-10 than 1997-98...I think the storm track was similar but I could be wrong?...It was the lack of arctic air when a storm arrived... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Yeah there was no shortage of coastal storms in 97-98... just a shortage of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 In terms of -NAO's in October (the whole of the month), if the NAO was less than -1 it agreed the following winter 5/14 times (55-56, 68-69, 97-98, 2002-3, 2009-10) based on using an average for DJF... Years it did not -- 60-61, 68-69, 73-74, 80-81, 81-82, 88-89, 92-93, 03-04, 04-05, 06-07. Wait so you're saying that 04-05 and 03-04 had a positive NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Wait so you're saying that 04-05 and 03-04 had a positive NAO? Those years averaged +NAO, but that's a bit deceiving b/c the best parts of those winters saw a -NAO. Jan and Feb of 2004 were -NAO and Feb/March of 2005 were neg NAO. Jan 2005 was +NAO, but I'm sure the dailies show a flip to negative around the blizzard for late month. The Pacific PDO/PNA pattern was also very favorable both years, which we probably will not have this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 DT thinks December will be the warmest month with January and February being cold and a high potential for Nor-easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 DT thinks December will be the warmest month with January and February being cold and a high potential for Nor-easters. Actually he said "Noreaster Potential COULD be High" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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