MJO812 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 what a joke accuwx is--that storm from Feb of 10 is a rare breed. Agree. Seriously, how many times do you see NYC getting snow while Boston and NE are getting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Accuweather.com released their finalized winter forecast, and just like their preliminary winter outlook, they have above normal snowfall for the NYC area. They are expecting more systems like February 26 2010, with rain into New England, and snow NYC South and west. http://www.accuweath...nyc/80787#link1 Great. Just when I was hoping for a decent winter, Accuwx jinxes us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Brett Anderson I am starting to lean in the direction that there will be little or no ENSO influence this winter across the northern U.S. and Canada. We probably will not even reach the official criteria for El Nino I suspect. Doesn't make the winter forecast any easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Some analogs that are being thrown around throughout the Internet are 1976-1977 and 2008-2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Some analogs that are being thrown around throughout the Internet are 1976-1977 and 2008-2009. the teleconnectors really arent the best right now i wouldnt be making too many outlandish calls with these analogs that were good winters. yea some are throwing around 76-77 and 08-09 but currently dont see it being that "good" yet. it will become more clear as we head deeper into october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 the teleconnectors really arent the best right now i wouldnt be making too many outlandish calls with these analogs that were good winters. yea some are throwing around 76-77 and 08-09 but currently dont see it being that "good" yet. it will become more clear as we head deeper into october Agree, and I don't like either of those years as analogs. Right now I'm leaning more toward 51-52, 53-54, and 06-07. The next several weeks are very important IMO, but I'm certainly not as excited as I'd like to be given the weak ENSO signal. I'm sure we'll do better with more variability than last winter, but I can easily see another warm/below avg snow year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Agree, and I don't like either of those years as analogs. Right now I'm leaning more toward 51-52, 53-54, and 06-07. The next several weeks are very important IMO, but I'm certainly not as excited as I'd like to be given the weak ENSO signal. I'm sure we'll do better with more variability than last winter, but I can easily see another warm/below avg snow year. I'm not crazy about the trends in ENSO; it looks like the Niño will crap out early like 51-52. The PDO remains stubbornly negative which suggests that if we do see some cold air entering the US, the mean trough could be well west of us. The main thing giving me hope is the -EPO pattern that's developed so far this fall bringing early arctic air to the Plains. I remember some hints of this in 2009 as well. The MJO also looks to be heading towards a more Nino like regime which may suggest the +ENSO isn't entirely finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 What did the forecasts for last winter look like in early October? Unless everyone called for a major stinker I doubt we'll know for sure what will happen this winter. The massive uncertainty regarding long term forecasting is preventing me from feeling bad about the upcoming winter. If it stinks then it stinks. But I'm not going to throw in the towel 2 weeks into fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 What did the forecasts for last winter look like in early October? Unless everyone called for a major stinker I doubt we'll know for sure what will happen this winter. The massive uncertainty regarding long term forecasting is preventing me from feeling bad about the upcoming winter. If it stinks then it stinks. But I'm not going to throw in the towel 2 weeks into fall. Everyone was calling for a good winter, and it stunk pretty much after the oct storm. The year before that everyone was calling for crap winter, 60 inches and 2 months of snowcover later we had a historic stretch. As you know, long range is a crap shoot. I just cant see it being any worse then last year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Agree, and I don't like either of those years as analogs. Right now I'm leaning more toward 51-52, 53-54, and 06-07. The next several weeks are very important IMO, but I'm certainly not as excited as I'd like to be given the weak ENSO signal. I'm sure we'll do better with more variability than last winter, but I can easily see another warm/below avg snow year. yea currently im seeing a winter that could be a little better than last but not by much, really a stinker again. we really need that ENSO signal to become stronger to have a chance at a better winter or else every other teleconnector would be close to nill. but like you said the next several weeks into beginning of november will be very importanto see what were looking at with some confidence as we head into december and the latter winter months. stay strong everyone were only two weeks into fall and some members are getting to throw in the towels, lets let it play out the next 4-6 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 yea currently im seeing a winter that could be a little better than last but not by much, really a stinker again. we really need that ENSO signal to become stronger to have a chance at a better winter or else every other teleconnector would be close to nill. but like you said the next several weeks into beginning of november will be very importanto see what were looking at with some confidence as we head into december and the latter winter months. stay strong everyone were only two weeks into fall and some members are getting to throw in the towels, lets let it play out the next 4-6 weeks Lets wait till November to see where we are before we make any guesses on this upcoming winter. A lot of people throughout the internet already made winter calls. I think that's a bit premature especially after last winter. All I have been hearing are good things about this upcoming winter. I mentioned that 1976-1977 are being thrown around by some mets online and 2008-2009 . 2008-2009 I believe was a neutral enso winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 What did the forecasts for last winter look like in early October? Unless everyone called for a major stinker I doubt we'll know for sure what will happen this winter. The massive uncertainty regarding long term forecasting is preventing me from feeling bad about the upcoming winter. If it stinks then it stinks. But I'm not going to throw in the towel 2 weeks into fall. Yeah I definitely wouldn't get my hopes up or down this early in the season. I'm just speculating on what things look like right now, but I'm not planning on making an actual winter forecast until later in November this year. I think those 3-4 weeks before winter are fairly important in determining pattern trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I'm not crazy about the trends in ENSO; it looks like the Niño will crap out early like 51-52. The PDO remains stubbornly negative which suggests that if we do see some cold air entering the US, the mean trough could be well west of us. The main thing giving me hope is the -EPO pattern that's developed so far this fall bringing early arctic air to the Plains. I remember some hints of this in 2009 as well. The MJO also looks to be heading towards a more Nino like regime which may suggest the +ENSO isn't entirely finished. Agree - it would really help us out if the Nino continued weak through the winter, but some recent guidance has it peaking or alread past peak. Not that we can't have a good winter with neutral ENSO -- we can, but it'll take more help from the NAO/AO, given the Pacific state. Negative PDO winters can be quite cold as well, though we certainly do better snow wise with a less negative PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 where can i find temp/snow data for Farmingdale, Republic Airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 where can i find temp/snow data for Farmingdale, Republic Airport? You can get temp data from NCDC, though you'll have to pay for it. You might try wunderground as a cheap alternative, though the data may not be "exactly" correct, especially if ASOS communications were down. No snow data exists for Farmingdale, Republic Airport as far as I am aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Things dont look to good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Amybody know if someone else is now hosting Rays's Winter Storm Archive ??? He closed his site down. http://www.njfreeways.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Amybody know if someone else is now hosting Rays's Winter Storm Archive ??? He closed his site down. http://www.njfreeways.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 http://www.americanw...0-what-happend/ Thanks Ray - here is the direct link http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Temps this winter will finish 2 below in NYC with 30 inches of Snow . This winter will NOT be a dud by any stretch , For those of you who disagree bookmark this and bring it back up on March 30 th , Now thats a forecast ! You can all wait until Nov or Dec to make yours . But this is mine, I like it and Im gona ride it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Temps this winter will finish 2 below in NYC with 30 inches of Snow . This winter will NOT be a dud by any stretch , For those of you who disagree bookmark this and bring it back up on March 30 th , Now thats a forecast ! You can all wait until Nov or Dec to make yours . But this is mine, I like it and Im gona ride it . Can you tell us how you came to this coming winters solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Can you tell us how you came to this coming winters solution? Sure, speaking to some of the largest energy traders in the street the consensus is 1 to 2 below normal in Notheast ( I TOOK TOP END ) with normal snowfall ( I TOOK TOP END ) . Take a peak at NAT GAS in the last month fund managers are gearing up for a draw down in supply this winter in the northeast . Buying out month upside calls ( rates are low , so the carry is cheap ) and selling downside puts to finance it .. I have not run into too many fund managers who`s private METS believe this winter is a warm one in the northeast .Drillers are starting to filter back into the marcelles shale increasing production you dont do that infront of warm winters . You guys can debate model run to model run , and you can guess the strength of the El Nino and what kind of blocking takes hold .As of now there are models already looking colder than they did a month ago . As for me I am giving you some insight on what Derivatives traders r thinking hope that helps clarifies it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 The traders and their mets don't have some sort of psychic knowledge the rest of us don't. I could not care less what some private met told an energy trader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 The traders and their mets don't have some sort of psychic knowledge the rest of us don't. I could not care less what some private met told an energy trader. I am just telling what consensus is . These are some of the smartest METS in the private sector These are some of the largest money managers on the street . These guys get paid alot of money for perfromance ,top level guys make money for a reason . Its ok to disagree , its your right But ok thats my forecast minus 2- and 30 inches or at least thats what my " psychic knowledge " tells me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Things dont look to good It's mid October lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 It's funny how some people are saying this winter will be great and some people are saying it will suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 It's funny how some people are saying this winter will be great and some people are saying it will suck. Doesn't that happen every year? 50% will get it right and the other 50% will get it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster17 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Snow & ice comparisons. 2 days ago on the left, same day last year in the middle, and the first noticeable snowpack in the lower 48 last year on right. (Oct 27) There's obviously an earlier snow pack this year but on the same token more snow in "Northern" Canada last year on the day of October 6th. Most will melt soon anyway in U.S. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2012/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Some posters in NE are mentioning 1993-1994 as an analog. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Some posters in NE are mentioning 1993-1994 as an analog. Thoughts? I got 20 inches more than you did that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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