NorEaster17 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 I put together a graphic. Using the 6 closest years that matched the same snowfall totals as last winter.. Here's how the very next winter looked for these locations. Every location had practically double the amount of snow the following winter (minus a couple years). In Connecticut, the Winter of 1950-51 had just 13.70", but the following year brought nearly two feet (23.50"). The Winter of 1999-00 just 13.30" of snow, the following year (2000-01) brought more than four feet (52.2") to the coast. The Winter of 1988-89 just over a foot (13") of snow fell, the following winter (1989-90) dumped 31.3". Check out the other cities and numbers. Take a look at Boston after their 1994-95 winter. There are no other years that had closer amounts of last years. Important to note.. Just because it was double... it doesnt mean it was above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 the el nino development has taken a kick to the groin...It still can develop later on or next year...here are some analogs that had enso that warmed during the Summer from winters low only to cool off by late fall and winter...No year went from a minus 1.000 to plus 1.000 on the mei index like 2012 and then dropped to plus 0.271...1951 is the closest... mei index.................................... year....Dec/Jan.....July/Aug*.....Nov/Dec...* some peak enso came before/after the JA period... 2012.....-1.046.......1.139........ 1951.....-1.068.......0.739*........0.467 2008.....-1.012.......0.136........-0.667 1943.....-1.257.......0.505........-0.347 1891.....-0.557.......0.360*.......-0.188 the best fit for the JMA is 1891 and 1934... JMA index... 2012.....-3.....9 2011.....-9.....3.....-4 2008...-10.....6.....-3 2001.....-2.....2.....-3 1993......2.....9......4 1990.....-1.....4......2 1948......1.....5......0 1947.....-1.....2.....-3 1945.....-9.....1...-10 1944.....-4.....4.....-8 1943...-14.....1.....-6 1937.....-3.....3.....-3 1934.....-1.....8.....-1 1932......2...10......3 1917...-18.....4.....-8 1891.....-1.....8......3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 the el nino development has taken a kick to the groin...It still can develop later on or next year...here are some analogs that had enso that warmed during the Summer from winters low only to cool off by late fall and winter...No year went from a minus 1.000 to plus 1.000 on the mei index like 2012 and then dropped to plus 0.271...1951 is the closest... That year continues to rear its ugly head, and as far as ENSO/PDO/NAO so far it looks like a good analog. On the bright side, it was a very good analog for spring/summer, but it's not often that we follow a particular year so well for 2+ consecutive seasons. Hopefully the Oct/Nov data swings the NAO likelihood in the other direction as the early indicators say positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 That year continues to rear its ugly head, and as far as ENSO/PDO/NAO so far it looks like a good analog. On the bright side, it was a very good analog for spring/summer, but it's not often that we follow a particular year so well for 2+ consecutive seasons. Hopefully the Oct/Nov data swings the NAO likelihood in the other direction as the early indicators say positive. snowfall from 1949-50 to 1954-55... season amount... 1949-50...13.8" 1950-51...11.6" 1951-52...19.7" 1952-53...15.1" 1953-54...15.8" 1954-55...11.5" that winter was the best of a six year snow drought...it was close to 1965-66's 21.4"...1951-52 had it's moments but failed to produce a major storm...Mid December had a 3" snow/rain event that would have been 10" if it came in February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 snowfall from 1949-50 to 1954-55... season amount... 1949-50...13.8" 1950-51...11.6" 1951-52...19.7" 1952-53...15.1" 1953-54...15.8" 1954-55...11.5" that winter was the best of a six year snow drought...it was close to 1965-66's 21.4"...1951-52 had it's moments but failed to produce a major storm...Mid December had a 3" snow/rain event that would have been 10" if it came in February... 51-52 looks just fine if our goal is to avoid any type of repeat of 11-12. Considering that the NE wind off the sound prevented even one flake of snow from falling in my neighborhood during the October storm, my 11-12 total of about 4.5 inches will be shattered by a winter like 51-52. I say bring it on lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Sure, speaking to some of the largest energy traders in the street the consensus is 1 to 2 below normal in Notheast ( I TOOK TOP END ) with normal snowfall ( I TOOK TOP END ) . Take a peak at NAT GAS in the last month fund managers are gearing up for a draw down in supply this winter in the northeast . Buying out month upside calls ( rates are low , so the carry is cheap ) and selling downside puts to finance it .. I have not run into too many fund managers who`s private METS believe this winter is a warm one in the northeast .Drillers are starting to filter back into the marcelles shale increasing production you dont do that infront of warm winters . You guys can debate model run to model run , and you can guess the strength of the El Nino and what kind of blocking takes hold .As of now there are models already looking colder than they did a month ago . As for me I am giving you some insight on what Derivatives traders r thinking hope that helps clarifies it . It does explain your reasoning...and may I add..I hope the money guys collect.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 i think we're going to punt nov/dec with that vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 i think we're going to punt nov/dec with that vortex That's a conclusion I'm not ready to jump to yet especially considering it's Oct 8. The vortex still seems somewhat transient even on the medium range ensembles. It's nothing like the black death hole that we dealt with last year. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 i think we're going to punt nov/dec with that vortex Eh November is wet rather than white for us anyway. December is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Eh November is wet rather than white for us anyway. December is another story. I mean in reality, our snow season doesn't get going on average until post Dec 10-15th, so I wouldn't mind flushing Nov/Dec down the toilet if it meant a rocking Jan/Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 I mean in reality, our snow season doesn't get going on average until post Dec 10-15th, so I wouldn't mind flushing Nov/Dec down the toilet if it meant a rocking Jan/Feb. who cares about November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 i think we're going to punt nov/dec with that vortex Who cares about November. Hopefully the end of December - March is snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 It's funny how some people are saying this winter will be great and some people are saying it will suck. Great? I see "normal" comments in here. Only those who called for 09-10 at the start are still banging the drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Great? I see "normal" comments in here. Only those who called for 09-10 at the start are still banging the drum. All over the internet. Not just on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 All over the internet. Not just on this site. The only ones calling for a great winter are those who don't look at the data pointing away from 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 who cares about November... It makes you wonder how people came up with "the weather in November winter will remember" or whatever it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 That's a conclusion I'm not ready to jump to yet especially considering it's Oct 8. The vortex still seems somewhat transient even on the medium range ensembles. It's nothing like the black death hole that we dealt with last year. http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html Yes it is way too early to assume that. Some just see what they want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster17 Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 It's Sunday...bordem settling in. Taking the actual monthly average for October, November, December, January, & February since 1990 for Syracuse, NY it almost seems like when October is warm most of the winter is also .. and Vice versa when October is cold. Some years dont end up with the result. Do you guys see or dont see anything here regarding the relation of temps in October or November compared to winter? Look close. For instance, 1995-96 october was warm but November was colder than normal and so was the rest of the winter. 1996-97 October was normal November was cold but rest of winter was warm. Are there more yeys than neys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster17 Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 A little easier here. I highlighted all the Octobers below normal in Blue, above normal in Red. Normal has no highlight. What do you think? This one is for BDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 snow cover is building especially widespread on the other side of the globe and also more so at the northeast side of North America http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/loop/nhem-1mo-loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Intrade is now taking bets http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Intrade is now taking bets http://www.intrade.c.../?eventId=91960 If I was the zoo keeper who measured the snowfall I would bet money on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 New JAMSTEC Oct update is in, and it's not too dissimilar from Sept, but even more of a Nina-ish signal for the United States. -PDO/-PNA look w/ the coldest anomalies in the West and northern Plains, moderating as one heads eastward, with the warmest anomalies right along the East Coast. Precip however is above normal for the Eastern US. Also looks to be some -EPO/-NAO blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Intrade is now taking bets http://www.intrade.c.../?eventId=91960 I am a buyer up to 15 inches for now - too many signals pointing towards at least a partial nina hangover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 New JAMSTEC Oct update is in, and it's not too dissimilar from Sept, but even more of a Nina-ish signal for the United States. -PDO/-PNA look w/ the coldest anomalies in the West and northern Plains, moderating as one heads eastward, with the warmest anomalies right along the East Coast. Precip however is above normal for the Eastern US. Also looks to be some -EPO/-NAO blocking. This certainly isn't the worst thing we could see at this point, although i'm sure some will freak out about the positive anomalies. I always like to see signs of continued blocking especially near the poles this time of year. It's about time to start paying attention to snow/ice coverage especially the net change in Siberia as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 My forecast: December: normal temps, 5-10" of snow January: +2, 5" February: -2, 10-15" March: warm Overall: Normal to mild, 24" of snow for Central Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 my winter guess as of now... temp...34.4...Coldest 30 days...28.0...coldest temp...+5...snowfall...29.0"...biggest snowfall...10.2"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 My first guess for Mount Vernon, NY: December: 6-8" of snow January: 8-12" of snow February: 8-10" of snow March: 4-6" of snow I'll post the temps later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/ Officially ABOVE NORMAL SNOW COVER over north America now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/ Officially ABOVE NORMAL SNOW COVER over north America now! That is a piece of good news thats for sure! Now lets see if that is a sign of things to come for the winter for us. Too early to say what kind of winter were gonna have but thats a hell of alot better than last year at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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