daddylonglegs Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Michigan has already seen freeze damage this year. http://news.msue.msu.edu/news/article/regional_reports_on_michigan_fruit_april_3_2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Only 39 degrees outside. Feels like mid fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I have 31/31 for the point forecast. Was 37 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 UHI and the lake should hold me in the upper 30s over night. Freeze fail. I'd imagine the best setup for you at this time of year would be a CAA situation with winds blowing offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Concrete and freeways IMBY. Should keep me and my plants nice and toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I'd imagine the best setup for you at this time of year would be a CAA situation with winds blowing offshore. yep, especially with the lake running above normal. I just don't see a freeze happening here again this spring. Pretty sure my last freeze was in early march and even that is going by ORD which was probably cooler than I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Frost Advisory up for the overnight. It'll go something like this for tomorrow morning's low temp: LAF 36, KTIM 34. I think I'll go a couple degrees under. 34 at LAF, 32 by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I'm starting to see a negative departure for April in much of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 yep, especially with the lake running above normal. I just don't see a freeze happening here again this spring. Pretty sure my last freeze was in early march and even that is going by ORD which was probably cooler than I was. ORD should make freezing one of the next two nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 ORD should make freezing one of the next two nights. They'll be close, i won't go under 40 if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I'm starting to see a negative departure for April in much of Michigan. It's minor as of now. Won't take much of a mid late month torch to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Strange to see those departures in Michigan. We are currently +14.6 in April but we'll be taking a big bite out of that in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Strange to see those departures in Michigan. We are currently +14.6 in April but we'll be taking a big bite out of that in the coming days. Wow, you're cookin' down there south of 80. I think at most this week, I'm at +2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Now under a freeze warning for tonight and freeze watch for tomorrow night. They are saying limited frost production tonight though due to winds staying up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Wow, you're cookin' down there south of 80. I think at most this week, I'm at +2. I think the lake has been a big factor up there, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Anyone see the Euro? Not good from what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Anyone see the Euro? Not good from what I can see. Yep trended cooler again.. -10 850's now again for LSE! Much deeper trough as well 0C 850 line all the way down to N. Florida!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 It's minor as of now. Won't take much of a mid late month torch to change that. Do you see any torches on the horizon? Didn't the 30 day outlook show greater chance of below average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Strange to see those departures in Michigan. We are currently +14.6 in April but we'll be taking a big bite out of that in the coming days. There was quite a dividing line setup the other day. You guys were in the 80's while we were in the upper 40's. I'm at -6 today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Do you see any torches on the horizon? Didn't the 30 day outlook show greater chance of below average? FWIW no major torch through at least next Friday for MI according to the 12z Euro.. DTX agrees as well with their zone forecasts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I'm still probably above on the month by a couple degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I'm +5 right now, by next week sunday I will probably be well in the negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Holy smokes...the High pressure really ramped up in this run...big ole stinky 1040 up north: Its brutall...that cold just oozes south and east.... I wouldn't be shocked if we see a huge destruction in midwest fruit production this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 So whats the call? Widespread 20Fs (some teens) all the way through MN/IA/Dakotas/IL/IN/OH/MI ??? Maybe areas near the lake staying a tad warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Holy smokes...the High pressure really ramped up in this run...big ole stinky 1040 up north: Its brutall...that cold just oozes south and east.... I wouldn't be shocked if we see a huge destruction in midwest fruit production this year. Kind of a wild outlier at this point. Massive change from its 00z run. GFS deterministic is also radically different compared to its own ensembles at 84-120 hr. There will be a closed upper low, but there's a LOT of disagreement over just where that sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I think clouds will help most of the are south of around the 1-80 1-70 corridor, gfs shows several weak disturbances moving through when the trough gets here. It had a hard time staying getting into the low 20s when the April 2007 freeze was here and it probably will not be that extreme this year. You also have to factor in the sun this time of the year, if you see what the ECMF is showing in the January it is different then what is means in mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I think clouds will help most of the are south of around the 1-80 1-70 corridor, gfs shows several weak disturbances moving through when the trough gets here. It had a hard time staying getting into the low 20s when the April 2007 freeze was here and it probably will not be that extreme this year. You also have to factor in the sun this time of the year, if you see what the ECMF is showing in the January it is different then what is means in mid April. Dude you are getting a frost/freeze tonight and tomorrow night in your area with nowhere the airmass shown for next week.. IF the ECMWF/GFS verify you are in for a hard freeze.. And LOL at the Sun.. We are talking frost/freezes here not daytime highs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Holy smokes...the High pressure really ramped up in this run...big ole stinky 1040 up north: Its brutall...that cold just oozes south and east.... I wouldn't be shocked if we see a huge destruction in midwest fruit production this year. 12Z GFS at the same time period is almost just as Cold.. :yikes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 12Z GFS at the same time period is almost just as Cold.. :yikes: Impressive until you look at the ensembles. The deterministic is colder than ALL of its ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Dude you are getting a frost/freeze tonight and tomorrow night in your area with nowhere the airmass shown for next week.. IF the ECMWF/GFS verify you are in for a hard freeze.. And LOL at the Sun.. We are talking frost/freezes here not daytime highs... I was thinking the same thing.... Quite a non-intimidating air-mass overhead now and we have 27 degrees predicted tonight. This could easily produce lows in the upper teens and high temps in the low to mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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